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Business News›News›Economy›Foreign Trade›India’s trade dependence on China, EU
rose in 2023: UNCTAD



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INDIA’S TRADE DEPENDENCE ON CHINA, EU ROSE IN 2023: UNCTAD

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India’s trade dependence on China, EU rose in 2023: UNCTAD
By
Kirtika Suneja

, ET BureauLast Updated: Mar 22, 2024, 06:25:00 PM IST
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Synopsis


IN 2023, INDIA'S TRADE RELIANCE ON CHINA AND THE EU GREW, WHILE DECLINING ON
SAUDI ARABIA. GLOBAL TRADE SHOWED IMPROVEMENT IN MAJOR ECONOMIES LIKE INDIA AND
CHINA. THE OUTLOOK FOR 2024 SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM RISING DEMAND FOR
ELECTRIC VEHICLES.

Reuters
New Delhi: India’s trade dependence on China and the EU increased in 2023 while
it reduced on Saudi Arabia, the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD) said. In its Global Trade Update, it said that trade in
goods resumed growth in some of the major economies such as India and China in
the fourth quarter of 2023 even as trade in services may have reached a plateau.

As per the report, India’s trade dependence on China and the EU increased 1.2%
each in 2023 while it reduced 0.6% on Saudi Arabia. Trade interdependence
between China and the US decreased further in 2023.



“Quarter-over-quarter statistics indicate return to growth in some major
economies, including China and India,” UNCTAD said.


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As per the report, towards the end of 2023, trade in goods saw growth in several
major economies, including China with a 5% rise in imports) and India with a 5%
growth in exports.

The fourth quarter of 2023 marked a departure from previous quarters, with both
merchandise and services trade stabilizing quarter-over-quarter.



“Developing countries, especially those in the African, East Asian and South
Asian regions, experienced growth in trade during this period,” UNCTAD said.

In 2023, global trade saw a 3% contraction, equaling roughly $1 trillion,
compared to the record high of $32 trillion in 2022. Despite this decline, the
services sector showed resilience with a $500 billion, or 8%, increase from the
previous year, while trade in goods experienced a $1.3 trillion, or 5%, decline
compared to 2022.

South-South trade, or trade between developing economies, saw a steeper decline
of about 7% in 2023 but these trends reversed in the last quarter of 2023, with
developing countries and South-South trade resuming growth while trade in
developed countries remained stable.

2024 outlook
Going ahead, UNCTAD said that the first quarter of 2024 suggests a continued
improvement in global trade, especially considering moderating global inflation
and improving economic growth forecasts.

“Additionally, rising demand for environmental goods, particularly electric
vehicles, is expected to bolster trade this year,” it said cautioning that the
geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persist as pivotal factors
influencing bilateral trade trends and require ongoing scrutiny.

Disruptions in shipping routes particularly those related to security issues in
the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as well as adverse climate effects on water
levels in the Panama Canal, carry the potential to escalate shipping costs,
prolong voyage times and disrupt supply chains, according to UNCTAD.



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