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NBA TOP 3: SEEDING MADNESS, SPRINT FOR MVP, AND LEBRON'S LAST STAND?

3 things to watch the last week of the NBA regular season

Daniel Childs
04 Apr 2022
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1) NBA PLAYOFF SEEDING RACE


EASTERN CONFERENCE

We’ve got a week left before the NBA’s second season starts, and the Eastern
conference’s seeding is far from settled.

Miami is currently the 1 seed with a two-game lead over Boston, while the
Celtics, Bucks, and Sixers are all within a half-game of each other sitting 2-4.
The Bulls and Raptors sit at the 5 and 6 spots with identical records. They will
likely land there as both teams sit 2.5 games out of 4th and ahead of the
play-in.

The top four are where things are interesting.

Miami is likely safe with their remaining schedule, but that team has lost to a
depleted Warriors team, an Embiid- and Harden-less Sixers squad, and the Knicks,
all in the past 10 days. Assuming they’re safe, how things shake out between the
other three will have a huge impact on who gets the home-court advantage, and
how the matchups look come playoff time.

Here’s how we see it looking come playoff time:

 1. Miami Heat - With the Hornets, Hawks, and Magic remaining, the Heat should
    hang on to the 1 seed, but is that a good thing? The way the standings look
    right now, the 1 seed gets homecourt but can also draw the Nets and KD in
    round 1, far from ideal.
 2. Milwaukee Bucks - The defending champs are hitting their stride at the right
    time, Brook Lopez is back, and Giannis deserves more MVP hype than he’s
    getting, watch out.
 3. Philadelphia 76ers - They've got the easiest schedule lef, so the Sixers are
    likely to win more than the Celtics and jump to the 3 seed. Too bad the Nets
    have no shot at the 6 seed to set up an epic first-round matchup
 4. Boston Celtics - With no Robert Williams and three games left on the road
    against playoff teams, the Celtics ‘fall’ to the 4 seed. If they can get to
    Round 2 and Williams comes back, these guys can beat anyone.
 5. Chicago Bulls - The Bulls have been a ton of fun this year, remember when
    DeRozan went for 35 a night while shooting 50% for what felt like a month?
    AND hit back-to-back walk-off buzzer beaters? As I said, a ton of fun, but
    this squad has struggled mightily against quality opponents and will likely
    be an early exit, regardless of seeding.
 6. Cleveland Cavaliers - Another fun team, this young, upstart Cavs squad has
    made the playoff leap sooner than anticipated. Darius Garland is a stud,
    Jarret Allen is a monster in the paint, and likely ROTY Evan Mobley has been
    awesome paired next to him. They'll land 5/6 and probably bow out in the
    first round.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Things are a bit more settled in the West, at least at the top.

The Suns and Grizzlies are locked into the 1 and 2 seeds, and, man... I hope we
get to see those two battle it out in the WCF. Ja, CP3, and Book would be
incredible to watch them battle in a high-stakes series.

Seeds 3-7 get a lot more interesting. The Warriors (3) and Mavericks (4) are one
game apart, the Nuggets (5) and Jazz (6) are also one game apart with the
Timberwolves (7) challenging the Jazz to avoid the play-in. With three games
left each, it’ll be a tight race to settle who plays who next week, it might
look something like this:

 1. Phoenix Suns - Dominant year for an exciting team fresh off a Finals
    collapse. All that’s left to see is if they can seal the deal this year.
 2. Memphis Grizzlies - Another young team ahead of schedule, it's been an
    impressive season for this well-coached and balanced squad that finds ways
    to win even with their star sidelined.
 3. Dallas Mavericks - The Mavs get the Pistons, Blazers, and Spurs to close the
    year. Those matchups, plus their recent play, should be enough to jump the
    Warriors and get to the 3 seed.
 4. Golden State Warriors - Unsurprisingly, it’s been a bit of a struggle
    without Steph. They draw 3 teams fighting to make the play-in, and while
    that isn’t saying much in the West, it’s more than the Blazers or Pistons
    have to play for, I think they drop two of their last three, and end up in
    the 4 spot.
 5. Denver Nuggets - A bit of a tough schedule to close, but the Nuggets should
    hold on. Mostly because they’re playing good basketball right now and the
    Jazz are not.
 6. Minnesota Timberwolves - The Jazz are crumbling, losers of 6 of their last
    7, and I don’t think that changes this week. The T-Wolves find a way to
    sneak out of the playoffs and into the top six.
    


2) NBA PLAY-IN MADNESS


EASTERN CONFERENCE

The four play-in teams in the east are likely locked in, with the Cavs 3 games
behind the Raptors and Bulls in the loss column, it’s likely too late for them
to snatch the 6 seed. The Cavs are also likely to stay at the seven, meaning
they just need to win one game to get in. The Hawks, Hornets, and Nets are all
within 1 game of each other and whoever ends up 9/10 has to win two games to
make the playoffs. Who would’ve thought a team that started the year with KD,
Kyrie, and Harden would end the year split up and sitting in the play-in just
fighting to make the playoffs? Not me.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Can the T-Wolves catch the Jazz? That’s definitely the biggest question every
NBA fan in the world is thinking about when they look at the current Western
Conference standings, right?

While that may happen, there’s only one team and one player that the media and
fans are focused on and that team resides in LA. Yes, I’m talking about Paul
George’s return and leading the Clippers into the play-in and maybe playoffs as
a relevant team!

Wait, that’s not who you care about?

Okay, fine, I’ll bite.

The Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron James are currently sitting as the 11 seed
after a Sunday night loss to the Nuggets, making it 6 straight losses and 8 of
their last 10... YIKES!

A lot of people didn’t like the fit when LeGM traded for Russ this summer, but
few thought it could get this bad… at least AD is back? The Lakers sit two games
behind the Spurs for the 10 seed and draw Phoenix, Golden State, OKC, and Denver
to close the season.

Oh and LeBron is banged up. Their only solace is that the Spurs get Denver,
Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas, so they have a tough road too. Listen, I’m
not a LeBron hater, he has been nothing short of incredible at the age of 37
potentially leading the league in scoring, but NBA Twitter is about to have a
field day when the Lakers miss out on getting swept by the Suns in round 1.

Once all of this seeding and play-in nonsense settles, test your NBA mettle with
a RYP Playoff Bracket and show your friends who knows ball.


3) THE NBA MVP RACE

Let’s look at this blindly.

Player A: 26.8 PTS 13.7 TRB 8 AST 58/34/81 PER 32.9 WS 15

Player B: 30.2 PTS 11.6 TRB 4.2 AST 49/37/81 PER 31.2 WS 11.5

Player C: 30.1 PTS 11.6 TRB 5.8 AST 55/29/72 PER 32.2 WS 12.4

Player D: 26.6 PTS 5.0 TRB 4.9 AST 46/37/86 PER 21.2 WS 7.3

Looking at those numbers, it’s a pretty clear race between players A, B, and C
for this year's MVP.

Incredible scoring and rebounding numbers, with high PER and Win Share metrics
as well. Add in assists and player A should be your clear winner. While
analytics matter, and are clearly a big factor for voters, let’s bring winning
and team success back into the conversation.

Player A: 47-32 - 5 Seed

Player B: 48-30 - 4 Seed

Player C: 48-30 - 3 Seed

Player D: 62-16 - 1 Seed, by far

Your players: A. Nikola Jokic, B. Joel Embiid, C. Gianiis Antetokounpo, D. Devin
Booker

Context matters, or at least it should, when voting for MVP. Devin Booker is not
going to win it, but he deserves recognition for being the best player on the
clear best team in the NBA this season.

The Suns have been dominant and remained dominant while Chris Paul was
sidelined. mostly due to Booker's play, but because of stats like PER, WS, VORP,
OPBM, DBPM, etc he never had a real shot in this race. Still, shoutout D-Book,
he’s been nothing short of incredible and might go on a Kobe-esque run this
postseason.


NOW, ONTO OUR THREE CONTENDERS.

All three of these big men are incredible players and have incredible seasons.
Jokic does things on the court that we’ve never seen before, especially from a
player of his size, and his efficiency metrics are off the charts. Embiid is a
dominant force on both sides of the ball and is nearly impossible to guard.
Giannis is an absolute unicorn, he somehow continues to get better (he’s
shooting close to 30% from deep and his FT% is back over 70). All of these guys
are deserving when you look at the numbers, so who takes it home?

If you’re looking solely at stats, Jokic is your guy.



There’s no arguing his incredible statistical season, we’ve never seen anything
like it. Maybe I’m old-fashioned, but winning should matter, and the Nuggets are
going to the 5 or 6 seed. So, great season Nikola, but we’re on to a new MVP,
maybe.

Dominance? Embiid it is.

He’s put up some ridiculous stat lines this season, including 44 PTS 17 REB 3
AST 5 BLK on Sunday against the Cavs. Fresh off of 29-14-6 on Saturday.

Still, someone else just dropped 40 and beat Embiid head to head. That’s right,
Giannis went for 40-14-6 and 3 BLK in a big W against Philly last week, only to
follow that up with 44-14-6 in a win against the Nets (including a clutch
game-tying 3 to send it to OT). Giannis is peaking right in time for the
playoffs.

This race feels too close to call. Giannis and Embiid are both on an absolute
tear to close the year and both have a shot to take this MVP home.

My take? The Bucks end up the 2 seed and Giannis should win MVP leading the
defending champs to a top 2 seed and a great shot at repeating. What’s going to
happen? Jokic goes back-to-back MVP.

NBA


DANIEL CHILDS


Not a writer. Willing to debate NBA or Fantasy Football 365 days a year.
Steelers. Heat. Pirates. Pens.


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AUTHORS




NICKY G

Dad of 3. WVian by birth. ATX for now.




MATT K

NBA: Celtics🍀 MLB: Red Sox🅱️ NFL: Pats🇺🇸 NHL: Bruins🐻 NCAA: Ohio
State🌰/UMass🚩 Can you tell I'm from Massachusetts? Social Media for RYP. Feel
free to argue with me on Twitter.




DANIEL CHILDS

Not a writer. Willing to debate NBA or Fantasy Football 365 days a year.
Steelers. Heat. Pirates. Pens.

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