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The Contrarian Investor Podcast

The Contrarian Investor Podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing
narrative in global financial markets

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THE CONTRARIAN INVESTOR PODCAST POSTS

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)


US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ‘SURPRISINGLY OPTIMISTIC’ (SZN 6, EPISODE 2)

Published February 1, 2024


SCOTT COLBERT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, COMMERCE TRUST CO.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins
the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy
in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to
premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through
our Substack or Supercast pages.


CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS

 * The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going
   in to last year (1:30);
 * The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
 * Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps
   and mid-caps… (6:35);
 * The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate
   cuts right away (10:05);
 * How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
 * Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as
   pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
 * The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election
   (28:15);
 * Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
 * An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).


MORE ON THE GUEST

 * Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
 * Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.


VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL













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MARKETS FACE HEADWINDS IN FIRST HALF OF 2024 (SZN 6, EPISODE 1)

Published January 11, 2024


BARRY KNAPP, IRONSIDES MACROECONOMICS

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium
subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. For details on how
to become a premium subscriber (it’s very easy), visit our Substack or
Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his
outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.


CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS

 * Knapp’s outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the
   rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period… (3:29);
 * Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve
   (7:00);
 * The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in
   goods prices (8:57);
 * How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March… (11:36);
 * Why bonds haven’t continued to rally this year (16:58);
 * The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with
   10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
 * Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change… (28:35);
 * Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All
   have led to major recessions… (36:40);
 * How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)


MORE ABOUT THE GUEST

 * Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com;
 * Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

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Optimism on Wall Street: A Contrarian Indicator, though not the Mother of All
Contrarian Indicators


OPTIMISM ON WALL STREET: A CONTRARIAN INDICATOR, THOUGH NOT THE MOTHER OF ALL
CONTRARIAN INDICATORS

Published January 2, 2024

This is an amended version of today’s Daily Contrarian. This briefing and
accompanying podcast are made available to premium subscribers every market day
morning before 0700.

What will 2024 bring? Last year at this time we were all preparing for imminent
recession. This year things are far more optimistic. The venerable Wall Street
Journal yesterday reported how “optimism abounds on Wall Street.” That’s the
kind of thing that gives The Contrarian cause for concern.

It’s not the mother of all contrarian indicators though. Yeah, Wall Street
analysts have horrific records at predicting, well, anything. But the mother of
all contrarian indicators, if you must know, is the mother in law indicator.

It doesn’t have to be your mother in law (parents, taxi drivers, baristas, high
school classmates, cousins, gym buddies, etc. all work), the key is for it to
come from somebody who is a complete novice at investing and has zero clue about
stocks or bonds — or for that matter even knows the difference between the two
(or that there is a difference). When these people come out of the woodwork
asking for “stock tips” then the bull market is truly on its very last legs.

We aren’t there yet. We could get there in a couple of months if the buying
continues. But then, why should it? The prevailing reason provided is that the
Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. While this would indeed provide
a short-term boost to stocks, the bigger gains would likely come in the bond
market.

And that’s assuming the Fed can cut rates to begin with. Remember that the Fed
needs the annualized CPI to be at 2% or lower before it can declare victory over
inflation. At its current level of 3.1%, it’s still a ways off. Until you get to
2% (or ideally below), the Fed runs the very real risk of igniting inflation
anew — and destroying whatever is left of its credibility with it. Remember, too
that Fed rate cuts are intended as economic stimulus. One could argue that they
should be reserved only used in such instances. Judging by labor markets and
consumer behavior, the economy is a long way from needing any kind of stimulus.

So be careful what you wish for. Yes, the economy still looks fine and that
should be a positive where corporate earnings are concerned. But without a clear
turn for the worse in the economy, the Fed runs a very real risk of causing all
kinds of problems should it still decide to cut rates. Not just inflation, but
very real concerns with the Fed’s credibility.

Listen to the audio here, courtesy of our YouTube channel:







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