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IS CLIMATE ACTIVISM WORKING?
IN GERMANY AND ELSEWHERE, THE IMPACT HAS BEEN MODEST.
By Cameron Abadi, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy, and Adam Tooze, a columnist
at Foreign Policy and director of the European Institute at Columbia University.
Sign up for Adam’s Chartbook newsletter here.
Children take part in a climate protest as Parliament resumes in London.
Children take part in a climate protest as Parliament resumes in London on Sept
2. Carl Court/Getty Images
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* Climate Change
* Cameron Abadi
September 12, 2024, 4:32 PM Comment icon View Comments (0)
Last year, Germany’s Constitutional Court rejected 60 billion euro ($65 billion)
fund set aside for renewable energy investments. Ever since, the country’s
climate policy has been set adrift, with political parties struggling to agree
on how to achieve Germany’s climate targets. In response, the country’s climate
activist movement has tried taking matters into its own hands.
Last year, Germany’s Constitutional Court rejected 60 billion euro ($65 billion)
fund set aside for renewable energy investments. Ever since, the country’s
climate policy has been set adrift, with political parties struggling to agree
on how to achieve Germany’s climate targets. In response, the country’s climate
activist movement has tried taking matters into its own hands.
Ones-and-tooze-functional-tag_8f63c9
Prefer to listen? To hear this entire conversation, and more episodes in the
weeks ahead, follow Ones and Tooze wherever you get your podcasts.
What theories of political change do climate activists have? Can fears of the
apocalypse be reconciled with democratic compromise? And is there any precedent
for the sweeping economic and social changes that meeting the West’s official
climate goals would require?
Those are a few of the questions that came up in my recent conversation with FP
economics columnist Adam Tooze on the podcast we co-host, Ones and Tooze. What
follows is an excerpt, edited for length and clarity. For the full conversation,
look for Ones and Tooze wherever you get your podcasts. And check out
Adam’s Substack newsletter.
This conversation draws on themes from Cameron Abadi’s new book, Climate
Radicals: Why Our Environmental Politics Isn’t Working.
Cameron Abadi: Germany does have a remarkably diverse climate activist movement
that goes back decades. But in recent years, the movement has flourished,
becoming an ecosystem with various different kinds of groups, each of which is
acting in parallel with one another toward similar goals but each of which also
has its own theories of political change in service of climate policy. Adam,
you’re familiar with this scene—which group do you think has the most promising
ideas of political change?
Adam Tooze: Cam, it actually shouldn’t be me answering that question because
your new book is just out, Climate Radicals, and it’s a fantastically
interesting parallel history comparison of strategies of environmental
radicalism in both Germany and the United States. And so I’m just going to spin
that question back to you. What do you think?
CA: I’m happy to try to answer. In the book, I discuss three German climate
activist groups that I think are instructive in thinking about the theories of
change involved in climate activism across the West, across democracies in
general.
And so one of those groups is called Fridays for Future. This is the group that
follows in the footsteps of the Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. What
the German group does, inspired by Greta, is to take her individual moral
protest and make it into a mass social movement. You know, at the height of
Fridays for Future, there were hundreds of thousands of people, not just young
people—although young people were at the center of those protests—but people
from all walks of life in Germany who took to the streets to protest the lack of
ambitious climate policy in the country. They would do this in consensual ways
in conjunction with the police. They would announce their protest ahead of time.
And, again, the scale was larger than any other protest on any policy really in
postwar German history.
And yet, despite all that, I would say the group has sort of been a failure in
the sense that not only have the protests died down but they’ve died down
because of the response that the political system gave. The political system
both acknowledged the demonstrations and the mass involvement, and yet it also
did what democracies always do, which is sort of find compromises. And the
compromises were, frankly, so compromised that they were almost insulting as a
reply to what the demonstrations were demanding. And the sort of underlying
theory here struck me as exposed as naive in some ways—this idea that public
demonstration of support for change and public demonstration of scientific fact
would be sufficient to create the change. At least on the timeline necessary
that the protesters were pointing to, that’s been exposed as insufficient.
Now, the most active group currently is one called Letzte Generation—that
translates to Last Generation. Their strategy has been very different and much
more provocative. They’ve aimed essentially for public disruption, social
disruption. And the idea is that they could make society so disrupted that
politics would have to change as a result. And so, starting a few years ago,
they started blocking streets in Berlin, major thoroughfares, major highways.
They would arrange secretly to meet in various places and then sit down and
block traffic, often supergluing themselves to the streets so it made it
impossible for them to be removed. This extended beyond Berlin to other cities
across the country and also to other kinds of infrastructure, including, most
recently, some airports that were shut down across Germany by activists from
this group.
There’s plenty of momentum behind this group. But the theory about how
disruption is supposed to produce political change has also, I think, been
exposed as pretty questionable, because what it has really produced is anger
among the people exposed to these protests and then anger among policymakers—or
at least opportunistic policymakers who’ve been willing to channel that anger in
ways that actually have led to reversals of climate policy. And when I tried to
talk with activists from across this group, they themselves admit that they have
trouble connecting the dots between their actions and the kinds of policies that
they envision coming to fruition. And I think, for me, that raised the question
of whether policy changes were what entirely they wanted at all. Maybe there
were other motivations.
AT: Well, moral motivations, right? It’s about making a statement before the
world ends, somehow. Not being passive in the face of what, as their name
suggests, you take to be an apocalyptic threat to our humanity.
CA: And I think you’re right to mention the word “apocalypse” because I do think
that’s a lot of what informs the activists themselves—this idea, again, a
scientifically grounded idea, that the climate is changing in irreversible,
potentially eschatological ways that are not reversible. And this does not
easily line up with our normal democratic politics that, as I said before, is
sort of designed to produce compromises of various kinds, to bring various
interests together and find ways of reconciling them. That’s not a perspective
easily reconciled with the apocalypse. And so, you know, this book was kind of
motivated by this question of how these modes of politics relate to each other
and how those tensions produce the excesses that we are all witness to and that
we’re all obliged to deal with now as a result.
AT: And then there’s the third mode, which will be Ende Gelände and the kind of
project of attacking fossil infrastructure, right? Actually trying to target a
more classical kind of industrial sabotage, industrial obstruction. Whereas
Letzte Generation is ultimately trying to shake ordinary citizens awake, Ende
Gelände has a strategy that is sort of more power-centered, isn’t it? It’s about
like, you know, blockading coal mines and power stations.
CA: Yeah. And in that way, I would say the groups that perhaps are most
clear-minded in their approach to activism might be the ones that are most
focused on destruction.
AT: And that has a tradition in Germany, doesn’t it? It goes back to the big
protest movements around the atomic reactors in the ’70s and ’80s, which were
very confrontational, that were sort of Germany’s civil rights movement, if you
like, in that generations of young protesters confronted the police with water
cannons and baton charges. And it was very, very heavy.
CA: Yes, so I do discuss this group, Ende Gelände, which has really made a
recent turn to trying to specifically target fossil fuel infrastructure and
destroy it. And there’s a kind of materialist aspect to that theory of change,
which involves simply increasing the costs on those who support fossil fuel
infrastructure and make it less sustainable directly. And I think there’s
something bracing to that theory. Of course, the ways it intersects with
politics are also unpredictable and have led to all kinds of backlash. So there
may be weaknesses in that approach as well.
AT: Well, see, this is where I would break a lance for Fridays for Future, to be
honest, because it was the culmination, perhaps, of the Ende Gelände-style
occupations and the massive confrontations with the police on the one hand and
the huge political protests—which were very menacing for the Social Democratic
government and contributed to the collapse of the social liberal coalition of
the late ’70s and ’80s, and ultimately gave birth to the Greens, which then,
whether you like it or not, led to the decision to close down Germany’s atomic
program. So it had consequences over decades. And I think in Brussels, anyway,
if you talk to people there such as Frans Timmermans and people like that—who,
in the Ursula von der Leyen-led European Commission, was the social democrat
from the Netherlands charged with climate policy—you know, as inadequate as that
official reformist climate policy may be, there’s no question that it was
powerfully motivated by the spectacle of hundreds of thousands of European
schoolkids refusing to go to school on Fridays for months on end. It was very,
very disruptive to ordinary life in many German cities without the
blood-pumping, blood pressure, road rage kind of moments of teenagers having
glued themselves to the Autobahn, which is more the Letzte Generation shtick.
Kids were just refusing to go to school every Friday.
And I think, I don’t know, I have a more optimistic overall assessment. I can
see they all at some level, you know, there’s aporia. There are gaps. You know,
there’s some key missing element. But then I think democratic politics is often
like that. It’s super messy, and you don’t really ever quite know what in the
end moves it. But all of these modes of pressure at least force choice. You
know, they won a very important supreme court judgment in Germany against the
government. And you mentioned the ruling on the 60 billion euro climate fund.
But the supreme court also ruled that the coalition’s policy was inadequate
because it was not protecting, ultimately, the constitutional freedoms promised
to future generations of Germans, which was momentous, really, in terms of
jurisprudence, I think, on the climate issue. So maybe this is where my
reformism shows through—that I actually find this a more promising story.
CA: And progress is evident everywhere. I don’t mean to suggest otherwise.
Whether it’s sufficient, though, to meet the goals that the activists themselves
have set and that politicians and policymakers have officially set—namely, the
goals in the Paris climate agreement to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees
Celsius—I think that’s another question. Because the analogy to the protest
movements of the 1970s and ’80s, you know, at that time they were talking about
one energy source, about eliminating nuclear power, rightly or wrongly; at the
time, that was their goal. And yeah, they were successful in that effort as
practitioners of civil disobedience. But we’re now talking about a complete
societal transformation of all production across the board and all consumption
across the board. And, you know, there’s support for that shift in Germany, at
least in the abstract; all the surveys show that, and the party landscape shows
that as well. But when you get to the trade-offs, all of a sudden the public
demonstrations are met by all sorts of other expressions of political realism.
And that’s true in the European Union as well as in Germany, as well as
everywhere I’ve looked on that question.
AT: I think it’s totally novel. I mean, this I would entirely agree on. It’s
worth saying, isn’t it, that it’s democracies that actually created this problem
for themselves in the first place. It was democracies that drove into existence
the global climate political frame. It was Western researchers preeminently who
identified this and said, “This is the acid test of our collective rationality,”
in the ’80s and ’90s. And then, yes, you’re right, of course, we failed, and
then we’ve gone on failing, and it seems very unlikely that we will reach net
zero in a timely fashion. And the consequences of that are spectacular. But the
two-sidedness, one has to think about democracy’s creative element in actually
even framing this in the first place, along with the frustration of its failure
to reach that. But if you think about, you know, if you come from the socialist
tradition, if you come from the Marxist tradition, it’s not like this will be
the first time that democracy has enabled the formulation of a vision of
dramatic progress, which then remains fundamentally and profoundly unsatisfied
over decades. Of course, the climate crisis is different in the sense it changes
the parameters at the biological level, it changes the parameters at the
planetary level, and it prejudices the possibility of all further progress
henceforth. But, no, that’s something to be laid at the doorstep of
industrialism and urbanization, not at the doorstep of democracy. Democracy
enabled the realization of the scale of this problem.
And if you really had to make a defense, you would simply say, look, the acid
test of whether or not we are responsive is carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per
capita. Look around the world—who has reduced their CO2 emissions per capita
since the realization that this might be an issue? And the answer is
unambiguously that the only places that have seen a substantial reduction in CO2
emissions per capita are all the big rich democracies. It’s the United States
and Europe where you see, in the case of the former, a 35 percent reduction
since peak and the U.K., where they’re literally about to shut down the last
coal-fired power station, a reduction that is closer to 55 to 60 percent over a
period of 20 years in the face of, as you say, a completely unprecedented
diagnosis of a crisis and problem we’ve never seen before. Nowhere else in the
world, there’s no regime that comes close to producing that outcome. And it’s
not only the result of policy by any means; it’s to do with cost curves and gas
replacing coal and everything else, and it’s very partial, and it doesn’t extend
to any of the difficult bits yet. But the only places that have acted on this
are the democracies.
Cameron Abadi is a deputy editor at Foreign Policy. X: @CameronAbadi
Adam Tooze is a columnist at Foreign Policy and a history professor and the
director of the European Institute at Columbia University. He is the author of
Chartbook, a newsletter on economics, geopolitics, and history. X: @adam_tooze
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