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OECD FORECASTS LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN TO REACH PRE-PANDEMIC STRUCTURAL BALANCE
BY 2025


UPDATED Mar 13, 2024, 10:51 PM

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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday it
projects the average structural balance in Latin America and the Caribbean to
reach pre-pandemic levels by 2025.

The regions are expected to see a steady improvement from 2022 to 2025, with
forecasts indicating a return to -3.4% of potential GDP by 2025. This figure
aligns with projections for OECD countries and mirrors the -3.4% recorded in
2019.

The structural or underlying fiscal balance is the difference between government
revenue and expenditure, corrected for effects that could be attributed to the
economic cycle and one-off events. It is used by the OECD to provide a clearer
understanding of governments' fiscal positions.



The COVID pandemic exacerbated structural deficits in the Latin American and
Caribbean (LAC) region and the OECD due to a decrease in government revenue and
increased public spending.

As a result, the LAC's average structural balance deteriorated from -3.4% of
potential GDP in 2019 to -4.7% in 2022, while the OECD's fell from -1.38% to
-3.8% over the same period.

Forecasts suggest Suriname will lead the recovery with a 4.0 percentage point
gain, followed by Colombia with 3.6 percentage points and Argentina with 2.9
percentage points. By 2025, only Suriname and Barbados are expected to post
positive balances of 0.9% and 0.1% of potential GDP, respectively.



Major LAC economies, Argentina and Mexico, are predicted to better the LAC
average by 2025, at -1.2% and -2.8% of potential GDP, respectively. However,
Brazil is forecast at -5.4% of potential GDP.



The LAC region's average structural balance for 2024 is projected at -4.6% of
potential GDP, indicating a larger imbalance compared with the OECD's average of
-2.7%. REUTERS

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