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Wednesday 25 October 2023


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Wednesday 25 October 2023
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Interest rates


ZOMBIE FIRMS: NAVIGATING THE LOOMING THREAT OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES ZOMBIE
FIRMS: NAVIGATING THE LOOMING THREAT OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES


BY ROBERT BURROWS

16 October 2023
Everyone knows that the best way to kill a Zombie is to smash its brain. For
Zombie firms, that killer blow is higher interest rates. Zombie firms are
essentially companies that exist on borrowed time. They struggle to generate
enough profits to cover their debt obligations, yet manage to stay afloat thanks
to lenient borrowing conditions. The prolonged period of ultra-low interest
rates following the 2008 financial crisis played a significant role in
sustaining these firms, allowing them to refinance their debts at favourable
terms....
16 October 2023


UNCLE JIM'S WORLD OF BONDS

There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing.
Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and
debt-to-gdp.

View Podcasts


16 YEARS OF COMMENT

Discover historical blogs from our extensive archive with our Blast from the
past feature. View the most popular blogs posted this month - 5, 10 or 15 years
ago!

Take me back
Uncle Jim's World of Bonds

There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing.
Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and
debt-to-gdp.

View Podcasts


OCTOBER 2023

Bonds


A LONG TIME IN FINANCE – NEW EPISODE ON BOND MARKETS


BY JIM LEAVISS - 10 OCTOBER 2023
BONDS

Loathe as I am to give the oxygen of publicity to rival podcasts talking about
the bond markets, I can make an exception for those where I am the surprise
guest…

high yield


HIGH YIELD MATURITY WALLS ARE STEEP, BUT NOT UNCLIMBABLE


BY ANA GIL - 9 OCTOBER 2023
HIGH YIELD

We are now 18 months into the Fed’s tightening cycle and many market
participants, including us, have been surprised by the resilience of credit
spreads, particularly in the high yield (HY) market where the option-adjusted
spread for the Global HY index has dipped to the low 400s (bps), one of the
tightest levels of post Global Financial Crisis observations.

ECB


ANTICIPATING THE ECB’S NEXT STEPS IN GREENING THE CSPP


BY MARIO EISENEGGER - 5 OCTOBER 2023
ECB

As outlined in a recent blog, bond investors have likely witnessed the final
hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) of this economic cycle. With this in
mind, investor focus might well shift to the ECB’s Asset Purchasing Programme.
Bond investors should pay particular attention to the Corporate Sector
Purchasing Programme (CSPP) following the ECB’s commitment to help managing and
mitigating the financial risks of climate change by tilting or directing the
ECB’s corporate bond purchases towards issuers with a better climate
performance.


SEPTEMBER 2023

Asia


THAILAND: OUTLOOK UNDER NEW POLITICAL LEADERSHIP


BY PEERAMPA JANJUMRATSANG, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ASIAN FIXED INCOME - 20 SEPTEMBER
2023
ASIA

2023 marked a year of significant political developments in Thailand. The wind
of change started with the general elections in May, which saw the opposition
Move Forward Party securing electoral victory. Move Forward’s lead over another
opposition party, Pheu Thai, was another surprise given that Pheu Thai won every
election since 2001 and was among the front runners in the 2023 election polls.

central banks


ONE FOR THE ROAD. HAS THE ECB JUST DELIVERED ITS FINAL RATE HIKE OF THE CYCLE?


BY WOLFGANG BAUER - 15 SEPTEMBER 2023
CENTRAL BANKS

Against the backdrop of stubbornly high – albeit receding – European inflation,
the ECB’s Governing Council decided yesterday to raise its policy rates by yet
another 25 basis points. This marks the tenth consecutive hike and lifts the
ECB’s deposit rate, which had been at -0.5% only in mid-2022, to a whopping 4%.
The burning question on many investors’ minds is, of course, was this the final
hike of the cycle?

US dollar


SUMMER’S OVER: IS THE DOLLAR RALLY PACKING UP FOR SCHOOL?


BY EVA SUN-WAI - 13 SEPTEMBER 2023
US DOLLAR

The kids may be back to school, but the summer weather seems to have saved
itself for September here in the UK. A market that has stayed hot for a lot more
of summer, however, is the US Dollar. The dollar has staged its strongest rally
in over a year as the rhetoric of central banks needing to hold rates higher for
longer has taken hold of markets. If this can be sustained, it will help the
Fed’s fight against inflation by making imports cheaper…


AUGUST 2023

debt


UK GOVERNMENT DEBT INTEREST PAYMENTS SET TO WEIGH HEAVY


BY ROBERT BURROWS - 18 AUGUST 2023
DEBT

The United Kingdom’s Government debt interest payments have been a topic of
concern and scrutiny for many years. As one of the world’s largest economies,
the UK has amassed a significant amount of debt, and the cost of servicing this
debt has important implications for the nation’s fiscal health. The current
state of UK Government Debt as of 2023 is circa £2.5 trillion, which is 100% of
GDP and equates to £38,000 per person. On a comparative basis, the UK is not the
worst, but…

inflation


INFLATION GOES ON HOLIDAY TOO, BUT IS IT JUST A SUMMER BREAK?


BY CARLO PUTTI - 15 AUGUST 2023
INFLATION

It’s not just us: inflation needs a rest from time to time too. So far this
summer, US inflation has been surprising to the downside and last week we got
another encouraging report. Headline CPI rose 0.17% MoM while core was up 0.16%
MoM. These numbers are consistent with 2% annual inflation.

Emerging markets


GABON’S DEBT-FOR-NATURE BLUE BOND: A GREAT TRY BUT DID THEY GET THE CONVERSION?


BY GREGORY SMITH - 14 AUGUST 2023
EMERGING MARKETS

Gabon has recently issued a debut $500 million blue bond, arranged by Bank of
America and the Nature Conservancy. Credit enhancements, including political
risk insurance from US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)
ensured the bond had an Aa2 rating from Moody’s, a level much higher than the
sovereign’s Caa1/B credit rating. 

Visit the archive


LATEST TWEETS

; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
16 Oct 1713905200400896031

NEW POST: 'Zombie Firms: Navigating the Looming Threat of Higher Interest Rates'
By Robert Burrows.

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/8raI50PX6x7

Reply on Twitter 1713905200400896031 Retweet on Twitter 1713905200400896031 1
Like on Twitter 1713905200400896031 3 Twitter 1713905200400896031
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
10 Oct 1711743090489184533

NEW POST: 'A Long Time In Finance – New Episode on Bond Markets' By Jim Leaviss

Read the full blog here:
https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2023/10/a-long-time-in-finan...

Reply on Twitter 1711743090489184533 Retweet on Twitter 1711743090489184533 1
Like on Twitter 1711743090489184533 2 Twitter 1711743090489184533
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
9 Oct 1711333375452053562

NEW POST: 'High yield maturity walls are steep, but not unclimbable' By Ana Gil

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/3G2I50PUxrl

Reply on Twitter 1711333375452053562 Retweet on Twitter 1711333375452053562 2
Like on Twitter 1711333375452053562 13 Twitter 1711333375452053562
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
5 Oct 1709938130508538047

NEW POST: 'Anticipating the ECB’s next steps in greening the CSPP' By Mario
Eisenegger

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/VLiu50PTsfw

Reply on Twitter 1709938130508538047 Retweet on Twitter 1709938130508538047 0
Like on Twitter 1709938130508538047 1 Twitter 1709938130508538047
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
5 Oct 1709938125777301901

NEW POST: 'Anticipating the ECB’s next steps in greening the CSPP' By Mario
Eisenegger

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/VLiu50PTsfw

Reply on Twitter 1709938125777301901 Retweet on Twitter 1709938125777301901 0
Like on Twitter 1709938125777301901 0 Twitter 1709938125777301901
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
20 Sep 1704444574716883442

NEW POST: 'Thailand: outlook under new political leadership' By Peerampa
Janjumratsang

Read the full blog here:
https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2023/09/thailand-outlook-und...

Reply on Twitter 1704444574716883442 Retweet on Twitter 1704444574716883442 0
Like on Twitter 1704444574716883442 0 Twitter 1704444574716883442
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
15 Sep 1702617459021275290

NEW POST: 'One for the road. Has the ECB just delivered its final rate hike of
the cycle?' By Wolfgang Bauer

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/30qC50PLWoW

Reply on Twitter 1702617459021275290 Retweet on Twitter 1702617459021275290 2
Like on Twitter 1702617459021275290 7 Twitter 1702617459021275290
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
13 Sep 1701954828333686967

NEW POST: 'Summer’s over: Is the dollar rally packing up for school?' By Eva
Sun-Wai

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/apn850PL6GL

Reply on Twitter 1701954828333686967 Retweet on Twitter 1701954828333686967 0
Like on Twitter 1701954828333686967 0 Twitter 1701954828333686967
; Bond Vigilantes @bondvigilantes ·
18 Aug 1692492652606812163

NEW POST: 'UK Government debt interest payments set to weigh heavy' By Robert
Burrow

Read the full blog here: https://ow.ly/ePnE50PAKBs

Reply on Twitter 1692492652606812163 Retweet on Twitter 1692492652606812163 3
Like on Twitter 1692492652606812163 8 Twitter 1692492652606812163
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