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The High Price of Losing Ukraine

Military-Strategic and Financial Implications of Russian Victory

By Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mitchell Belcher, Noel Mikkelsen,
and Thomas Bergeron

The High Price of Losing Ukraine - Part 2

ISW's Nataliya Bugayova says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, US adversaries will
learn that the United States can be manipulated into abandoning its interests in
a winnable fight.

If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans in, Ukraine
Can Win.

Fred Kagan writes about why the positional war in Ukraine is not a stable
stalemate and how the current balance could readily be tipped in either
direction by decisions made in the West.

New Interactive Map of Israeli Ground Operations

ISW and AEI’s Critical Threats Project have launched a high-fidelity interactive
map of Israeli ground operations in the Israel-Hamas War.

Russian Regular Ground Forces Order of Battle: Russian Military 101

By Mason Clark and Karolina Hird

The first installment of ISW's series on the structure and capabilities of the
Russian Armed Forces.

12345

LATEST FROM ISW


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 3, 2024

Feb 3, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin is doubling down on its support for Iran as the US conducts strikes
to preempt attacks by Iranian-back proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen against
American and other targets. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
condemned the US retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed militia positions in
Iraq, Syria, and Yemen on February 3. The US launched a series of retaliatory
airstrikes against targets in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen on February 2 and 3
following a January 28 drone strike by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that
killed three US servicemembers in northeastern Jordan.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2024


IRAN UPDATE, FEBRUARY 3, 2024

Feb 3, 2024 - ISW Press

The February 2 US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iranian-backed militia
positions along the Euphrates River in Syria, the Iraq-Syria border, and south
of Baghdad, Iraq. An anonymous US official told Politico that the United States
struck all of its planned targets and several “dynamic targets that popped up as
the mission unfolded,” including surface-to-air missile systems and drone launch
sites. Two unspecified US officials also told the New York Times that the United
States conducted unspecified cyber attacks targeting Iran on February 2.

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, February 3, 2024


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Feb 2, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic
mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilization during the
Second World War during a February 2 speech despite the fact that Russia is
undertaking a far more gradual but nonetheless effective mobilization of its
defense industrial base.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2024


IRAN UPDATE, FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Feb 2, 2024 - ISW Press

The United States struck over 85 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds
Force and Iranian-backed militia targets in Iraq and Syria on February 2. The
strike involved “numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from
[the] United States” using “more than 125 precision munitions.” The strikes
targeted operations and intelligence centers, rockets, missiles, drone storage
facilities, and “logistics and munition supply chain facilities” of the IRGC and
Iranian-backed militia groups.

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, February 2, 2024


CHINA-TAIWAN WEEKLY UPDATE, FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Feb 2, 2024 - ISW Press

The Legislative Yuan (LY) elected Kuomintang (KMT) legislature elected Han
Kuo-yu speaker of the legislature on February 1. Han received all 52 KMT votes
and 2 others from independent legislators in the second round of voting. No
candidate secured a majority during the first round. The Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) nominated incumbent Legislative Yuan Speaker You Si-kun, who
received 51 votes from DPP legislators. You had been the speaker of the
Legislative Yuan since 2020. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) nominated one of
its eight legislators, Vivian Huang, and voted unanimously for her. The TPP
abstained in the second round of voting. Huang was an unexpected addition to the
race, as the TPP had indicated that it would support the DPP or KMT in exchange
for political concessions. The potential to secure the TPP’s backing fueled
competition between the two parties to appease the TPP until the party announced
Huang’s candidacy on January 31. The TPP’s last-minute participation in the LY
speaker race caused controversy within the DPP, which viewed the move as an
ultimatum to tear DPP support away from its candidate by those who advocated
preventing Han’s victory at any cost.

 


 * Read more about China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 2, 2023


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Feb 1, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching
strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine and retain it to
facilitate Ukrainian battlefield victories despite Russia’s numerical advantages
in manpower and materiel. Zaluzhnyi’s strategy aims to offset Ukraine’s existing
challenges and pursue advantages over the Russian military through widespread
technological innovation and adaptation. The Ukrainian Armed Forces published an
essay on February 1 by Zaluzhnyi titled “On the Modern Design of Military
Operations in the Russo-Ukrainian War: In the Fight for the Initiative,” wherein
Zaluzhnyi argued that the requirements for any given war are unique and that
these requirements dictate a unique strategy for victory. Zaluzhnyi identified
“decisive conditions” for Ukraine to conduct successful operations, which
include achieving absolute air superiority to enable effective Ukrainian fires,
logistics, and reconnaissance; seizing the initiative by denying Russian forces
the ability to conduct offensive or defensive operations; increasing Ukrainian
mobility while limiting Russian mobility; securing safe access to unspecified
key lines and important terrain; and denying Russian forces any opportunities to
recapture lost positions and increase Russian operational efforts. The decisive
conditions that Zaluzhnyi highlighted would effectively give Ukrainian forces
the theater-wide initiative and set conditions for Ukraine to conduct
operationally significant defensive and offensive operations. Zaluzhnyi argued
that the rapid development of new technology changes the means by which Ukraine
can achieve these “decisive conditions” and that Ukrainian forces cannot use
conventional methods to achieve these conditions given Russia’s superior ability
to mobilize men. Zaluzhnyi argued that new technological means, such as drones,
unmanned systems, systems integration, and other advanced technological systems
can allow Ukrainian forces to maximize their combat potential using fewer
resources and inflict maximum damage on Russian forces.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2024


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FEATURED REPORT

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Aug 15, 2022




This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late
February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events
related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.


ISRAEL–HAMAS WAR (IRAN UPDATES)




CHINA–TAIWAN WEEKLY UPDATES




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