prospect.org Open in urlscan Pro
75.101.132.169  Public Scan

Form analysis
1 forms found in the DOM

https://prospect.org/api/search.html

<form action="https://prospect.org/api/search.html">
  <input type="text" name="q" title="Enter Search Words" placeholder="Search...">
  <button class="search submit" type="submit" name="sa">Search</button>
</form>

Text Content

Skip to main content

Become A Member My Account
Search
 * Money, Politics and Power
 * Economic Models
 * Economic Policy
 * Working in America
   * The Alt-Labor Chronicles: America’s Worker Centers
 * Energy and the Environment
   * Climate of Opportunity
 * Housing and Transportation
   * Building Back America
 * Civil Rights in America
 * Law and Justice
 * Health and Social Policy
 * America and the World
 * Prospects 2032
 * Day One Agenda
 * Podcasts
 * The Prospect Archive

 * 2022 Midterm Tracker



Home Politics NY-03 Special Election Tests Jacobs’s ‘Long Island Strategy’
44

Knowledge Tracker


NY-03 SPECIAL ELECTION TESTS JACOBS’S ‘LONG ISLAND STRATEGY’

Tuesday’s primary to fill George Santos’s seat is a toss-up, despite an
experienced former Democratic congressmember facing a largely unknown
Republican.

by Luke Goldstein

February 12, 2024

5:30 AM

102 Shares









RSS
Print
×
Expand

Brittainy Newman; John Minchillo/AP Photo

Candidates Mazi Pilip, left, and former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi are running to fill
George Santos’s former seat in New York’s Third Congressional District.



While George Santos is busy building a post-politics career as an online
influencer, voters in his former district in New York are preparing to wash the
stain from the seat in a special election on Tuesday that is being treated as a
bellwether for the 2024 campaign.



Democratic candidate and former congressman Tom Suozzi has returned to try to
reclaim his old seat in the Third Congressional District. Suozzi faces a local
Republican county official with little national recognition: Mazi Pilip, an
Ethiopian immigrant who served in the Israel Defense Forces before coming to the
U.S.

Immigration and abortion are listed as top concerns by voters and have dominated
the sparring between candidates, including at the first and only debate of the
race last Thursday night. The election will test whether the now dead-on-arrival
border package legislation in Washington will backfire against Republicans, as
national Democrats hope, and how much staying power abortion still has for
voters in a blue state.



Even in a tough swing district, you’d expect the Democratic candidate to trounce
the opponent after the scorched rubble left by Santos’s disastrous ten months in
office. Yet despite vastly outspending his opponent nearly 3-to-1, Suozzi’s
margins in recent polling are razor-thin, with some pollsters designating the
race a toss-up. The most recent public poll from Emerson College has Suozzi up
50-47.

More from Luke Goldstein

The special election will put the New York Democratic Party under scrutiny after
underperforming the rest of the country with a series of defeats in the 2022
midterms. State party chair Jay Jacobs is a close ally of Suozzi and a longtime
chair of the Nassau County Democratic Party, the home of the NY-03 district.
Jacobs has fashioned a “Long Island strategy” that’s shifted the party in a more
conservative direction to win contested seats across the state. So far, that
strategy hasn’t borne out, and Jacobs has received criticism for not tapping
into the party’s more grassroots base.

“This race should be the ultimate shoo-in,” said one progressive strategist in
New York. “If Suozzi loses or really if it’s even a close race, that raises
serious questions about the Democratic establishment in New York, especially for
a race in Jay Jacobs’s backyard.”

THE NATIONAL STAKES FOR THE SPECIAL ELECTION are mixed.

For one, the winner will only hold office for roughly eight months before the
contest is redecided this November in a redrawn district. The New York Supreme
Court ruled last December that the New York independent redistricting commission
will have to redraw the congressional map. The decision is expected to shift the
seat in a direction more favorable for Democrats in November.

But until then, there could potentially be near-term implications, given the
slim majority that Republicans currently hold in the House and constant tumult
over the Speakership. Just this past week, Republicans failed to impeach the
Biden administration’s secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, by
the thinnest of margins, prompting Rep. Matt Gaetz to remark that he’d “never
missed George Santos more.”

But primarily, the race is receiving national attention for a check of the
national mood heading into the 2024 presidential year. To underscore just how
dramatized this storyline has become, a recent Politico Magazine story put as
its headline “Nassau County Is Replacing George Santos—and Maybe Picking the
Next President.”

Some surrogates close to Suozzi’s campaign have downplayed this Beltway
narrative somewhat, at least as a presidential indicator.

“It’s called a special election for a reason and the dynamics are different;
we’re not picking the next president, but that’s not to say this isn’t highly
important,” said Zak Malamed, who was one of the many Democratic candidates
running in the primary to challenge Santos before the congressman’s expulsion.

In an unconventional procedure, national leadership in consultation with the
state party got to select the candidate for the special election and cleared the
way for Suozzi. Malamed endorsed Suozzi and has been supporting him in the race
ever since.

> The special election will put the New York Democratic Party under scrutiny
> after underperforming the rest of the country with a series of defeats in the
> 2022 midterms.

But the coronation of Suozzi was somewhat more contentious in other quarters.
The bad blood is because Suozzi left the seat to make a failed run for governor
against Kathy Hochul in 2022. Many believe that Suozzi’s exit opened the seat up
for the Santos drama that New York and the country have endured for the past
year. Despite that criticism, Suozzi was rewarded by the party that saw him as
the safest bet to flip the district.



Suozzi, a conservative Democrat who helped found the Problems Solvers Caucus,
also has a mixed record on abortion, a major factor in sinking his bid for
governor. Suozzi initially supported the Hyde Amendment, which bans the use of
federal funds for abortion procedures, but has since reversed himself. Still,
some of his opponents questioned whether his track record on the issue might
make him a poor fit for the seat, given how mobilizing the issue has been
against Republicans since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

One lesson New York Democrats took away from the 2022 midterm races is that they
didn’t adequately turn abortion into a central issue, which carried Democrats
elsewhere. Suozzi seems to agree. He’s shored up support from reproductive
rights groups such as Planned Parenthood and gone on the attack against his
Republican opponent over her party’s extreme position. He’s repeatedly pressed
Pilip on what exactly her stance is on supporting Roe v. Wade or the proposed
national abortion ban legislation. Pilip has only offered vague responses about
respecting a woman’s “decision,” both bucking the conservative flank of her
party without fully committing to supporting Roe either.

Pilip has other issues as well. She hid from the public for a stretch of the
campaign, only appearing on the trail occasionally. In her absence, a major
controversy broke that echoed her Republican predecessor’s corruption. A New
York Times investigation revealed that Pilip’s financial disclosures included a
number of inconsistencies and omissions compared to her previous filings for
Nassau County, where she served as a legislator. Her campaign immediately
corrected some of the errors, claiming they were mistakes, but there are still
outstanding questions about her and her husband’s financial holdings.

Despite the national tenor of the race, both candidates have distanced
themselves from the presumptive nominees of their respective parties and
exhibited nothing but angst about the possibility of them visiting the district.
Pilip won’t even say whether she voted for President Trump in 2020 despite being
pressed on this question constantly by Suozzi’s campaign. In swing districts
like NY-03, with scores of independent and moderate voters, it’s a reflection of
the extreme unpopularity of both presidential candidates and even the toxicity
of the national brands of both parties. In fact, both candidates also opted not
to publicize when House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
each visited the candidates for rallies in the district.

Yet, the adage “all politics is local” doesn’t seem to be holding true so far in
the race, where hot-button national issues predominate. While Santos won on
relatively parochial issues like crime and migrant busing, this contest is
centered heavily on the southern border situation, along with abortion.

Both candidates have exchanged barbs on immigration. Up until the past few
weeks, Pilip, an immigrant herself, was accusing Democrats of allowing an
invasion at the southern border. The tenor has changed somewhat since the
collapse of the border deal brokered in Washington to pair restrictive
immigration enforcement with military aid for Israel and Ukraine.

Republicans killing the deal, to avoid delivering Biden another legislative
victory, has given Suozzi a talking point in the race to fend off the
open-borders charge from Republicans. He’s pushed Pilip to respond to the
collapse of the border deal, accusing Republicans of not being serious about
solutions. Whether that will change the minds of voters is yet to be tested.

The border package also raises the question of support for Israel and the
ongoing war in Gaza. Suozzi is a loyal supporter of Israel and even visited the
country in December. For that, he received the endorsement and financial support
of Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, even though his opponent actually fought
in the IDF. Suozzi has used his backing by the Israel lobby to try to defang his
opponent’s charge that his party welcomes “terrorist sympathizers.”

THE MAIN QUESTION HANGING OVER THE RACE is whether the state party can revamp
itself after suffering four humiliating congressional losses in 2022, two of
which were in Long Island, which also saw wipeout down-ballot at the local
level.



Those four races arguably cost Democrats control of the House, which Republicans
won back by just four seats. National Democratic leadership has made it clear
they believe their path back to the majority in 2024 runs through Long Island
and retaking those lost seats from the midterms. They’re already dedicating an
incredible amount of resources to those races up and down the state, upwards of
$45 million from the national party’s coffers. That vast amount of money
earmarked for what would usually be state party responsibilities indicates
national Democrats might not fully trust the abilities of the Albany bosses to
get the job done.

Democrats are also spending big in the special election. Just over a week before
the election, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund was forced to pump $2.6
million into TV ads to try to make up the yawning gap Democrats had put between
them and Republicans on spending. Prior to that infusion of funds, Suozzi led
almost threefold on spending for television and digital ads, at $8 million to $3
million.

House Majority PAC, the main vehicle for Democratic leadership spending, dumped
$7 million on the race for Suozzi.

That amount of spending is obscenely high for a special-election race that will
just be redecided in November, likely under more favorable conditions for
Democrats after redistricting. While leadership PACs expend resources on Suozzi,
they have all but refused to lift a finger to protect the incumbent house
progressives facing well-financed primary challenges, funded largely by
right-wing donors.

Some progressives in New York also question the tactics that the state party has
decided to run with under the leadership of party chair Jay Jacobs to win back
Long Island.

As Gov. Hochul has consolidated power, the state party for the most part has
supported the more moderate candidates in state and local races across the state
against progressives.

In contested Long Island races, the party believes tacking right to win over
middle-of-the-road Republican and independent voters is the necessary path to
victory. In 2022, that more conservative strategy led not just to the losses of
congressional candidates but also the unseating of the Democratic Nassau County
executive, Laura Curran, and several district attorney candidates who tried to
distance themselves from criminal justice reform positions.

The alternative approach would be to try to mobilize more energy among the
party’s core base of voters.



Tuesday’s election has been made out to be a referendum on President Biden. In
reality, it may be more a reflection of the state party in New York, and whether
it’s up for the task in 2024.

Knowledge Hub
See all your topics
44


Knowledge Tracker Politics
0
1000
Read Next
Massachusetts Blues +74
December 3

America Is Not a Democracy +54
January 28

Can Progressive New York Revive? +40
January 31

Knowledge Tracker measures how much of a topic you have covered and suggests
articles to maximize your knowledge. Score out of 1000.
See All Your Topics
Powered By

Knowledge Tracker measures your coverage of any topic based on the articles you
read. The progress bar shows where you currently stand, and recommendations are
tailored to introduce key unexplored elements of the topic.
× See All Your Topics
Powered By
Back to Search Results

TAGS

Politics Congress Democrats campaign finance Cities & Communities New York
Elections 2024


LUKE GOLDSTEIN

Luke Goldstein is a writing fellow at The American Prospect.

Read more by Luke Goldstein

February 12, 2024

5:30 AM

You can count on the Prospect, can we count on you?

There's no paywall here. Your donations power our newsroom as we report on
ideas, politics and power — and what’s really at stake as we navigate another
presidential election year. Please, become a member, or make a one-time
donation, today. Thank you!


RELATED

 * Lev Radin/Sipa USA via AP Images
   
   LATIMER PICKS ANTI-UNION CONSULTANT FOR BOWMAN CHALLENGE
   
   Global Strategy Group, which once worked for Amazon to prevent union
   organizing in its warehouses, is doing polling for the pro-Israel candidate.
   
   Feb 7, 2024

 * Robert Michael/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
   
   WILL BIDEN GET CHIP MARKETS RIGHT?
   
   A new paper outlines how to avoid worsening market concentration in
   semiconductors with billions in subsidies for U.S. onshoring.
   
   Feb 6, 2024

 * Courtesy REI Union
   
   ELECTION DENIERS IN THE C-SUITES
   
   Workers can win union elections, but companies pull out all the stops to
   prevent them from obtaining a first contract.
   
   Feb 2, 2024


TRENDING NOW


 * BOEING 737 MAX INCIDENT A BY-PRODUCT OF ITS FINANCIAL MINDSET
   
   Luke Goldstein


 * WHY AND WHERE THE WORKING CLASS TURNED RIGHT
   
   Harold Meyerson


 * REPUBLICANS DON’T WANT TO WIN AN IMMIGRATION POLICY FIGHT
   
   David Dayen


 * TIME FOR A VICTORY LAP?
   
   Joseph E. Stiglitz


 * YOU ARE ENTERING THE INFERNAL TRIANGLE
   
   Rick Perlstein


 * AFTER SECTION 3 COMES SECTION 2
   
   Michael Meltsner


 * THE LIFE-AND-DEATH COST OF CONSERVATIVE POWER
   
   Paul Starr


 * ‘I DON’T WANT TO BE GEORGE FLOYD’
   
   Gabrielle Gurley







About the Prospect / Contact Info

Browse Archive / Back Issues

Subscription Services

Privacy Policy

DONATE TO THE PROSPECT

 

   

Copyright 2023 | The American Prospect, Inc. | All Rights Reserved

Built with Metro Publisher™



Knowledge Tracker measures your coverage of any topic based on the articles you
read. The progress bar shows where you currently stand, and recommendations are
tailored to introduce key unexplored elements of the topic.
× See All Your Topics
Powered By




✕
Do not sell or share my personal information.
You have chosen to opt-out of the sale or sharing of your information from this
site and any of its affiliates. To opt back in please click the "Customize my ad
experience" link.

This site collects information through the use of cookies and other tracking
tools. Cookies and these tools do not contain any information that personally
identifies a user, but personal information that would be stored about you may
be linked to the information stored in and obtained from them. This information
would be used and shared for Analytics, Ad Serving, Interest Based Advertising,
among other purposes.

For more information please visit this site's Privacy Policy.
CANCEL
CONTINUE

Information from your device can be used to personalize your ad experience.

Do not sell or share my personal information.
A Raptive Partner Site