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Defense


‘SETTING THE THEATER’: US, ALLIES ARE PREPARING FOR CONFLICT IN THE PACIFIC



(Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

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Micaela Burrow Reporter
January 15, 2023 11:57 AM ET
Font Size:
 * The U.S. and allies in the Pacific region are stepping up defense cooperation
   and allowing the U.S. to increase military presence, setting the stage for a
   potential conflict involving China or North Korea, experts told the Daily
   Caller News Foundation.
 * Japan understands it is close to both North Korean and Chinese flashpoints
   and needs to step up its commitments to defense.
 * “The United States and its allies are vulnerable and underprepared for some
   plausible conflict scenarios,” Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at
   Hudson Institute, told the DCNF.

The U.S. and its allies are laying the groundwork for a potential conflict in
the Pacific, a shift characterized by moves to strengthen their militaries and
deepen cooperation, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.



Scholars and officials disagree as to whether China or North Korea will
instigate the first major armed conflict in the Asia-Pacific region of the 21st
century, but the consensus is that either one could spark a war, whether
deliberately or accidentally, and soon. Recent U.S. moves to bolster troop
presence in the region and reinforce collaboration with Japan, Australia and
other partners are meant to prevent a bloody and potentially devastating fight,
but deterrence will become increasingly difficult, experts told the DCNF.



“The challenges posed by China and North Korea have grown, and the United States
and its allies are vulnerable and underprepared for some plausible conflict
scenarios,” Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute,
explained to the DCNF. (RELATED: Hawley Says Biden Admin’s ‘Prioritizing’ Of
Weapons Shipments To Ukraine Could Embolden China To Take Taiwan)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine served as a wake-up call for U.S. allies in the
region, including Japan and Taiwan, and provided a model for how to pre-position
equipment, supply lines and bases of operation in preparation for a future
conflict, Lt. Gen. James Bierman, the Marine Corps’ top commanding officer in
Japan, recently told the Financial Times.

“We call that setting the theater. And we are setting the theater in Japan, in
the Philippines, in other locations,” he told the FT.




A visit of Japanese heads of defense and foreign affairs to Washington on Jan.
11 underscored a changing attitude in formerly pacifist Japan toward the growing
threat North Korea and China pose to the region. Chinese ballistic missiles,
fired as part of China’s largest-ever military exercises in the Taiwan Strait,
splashed down in Japan’s so-called exclusive economic zone in August.

Secretary of State Lloyd Austin said he did not foresee an “imminent” invasion
of Taiwan during remarks with Japanese heads of defense and foreign affairs on
Wednesday. However, that does not preclude an eventual invasion, and the
possibility exists that China’s bullying tactics could trigger an escalation,
Gregory Poling, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS), said at a panel Thursday.

“We’re not a four alarm fire yet on Taiwan. We’re at three and three quarters,”
Charles Edel, CSIS Australia chair, said at the same event.

China ramped up the deployment of attack vessels and aircraft in the Taiwan
Strait in 2022, sending huge sorties around the self-governing island meant to
intimidate and coerce.



Beijing has not written off the possibility of using force to “reunify” with
Taiwan, while Chinese newspapers tout Beijing’s military prowess and predict the
People’s Liberation Army will extract a high cost for any U.S. intervention in
Taiwan, according to a translation.




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Meanwhile, North Korea fired a record number of missiles into the sea in 2022
and indicated it might test a nuclear weapon, although the test has not yet
materialized. Multiple U.S. overtures to engage the isolated country in talks
over its threatening nuclear program since the Biden administration took office
have met with silence, according to Reuters.

Instead, the U.S. and South Korea are discussing ways to cooperate on U.S.
nuclear operations to bolster deterrence. North Korea may be more likely to
mount a deliberate attack against South Korea in the short term than China is to
invade Taiwan, Poling said.

Japan understands it is close to both North Korean and Chinese flashpoints and
needs to step up its commitments to defense, Cronin told the DCNF.

Tokyo unveiled a plan in December to give its military the largest boost since
World War II as defense leaders fear a rising, militant China as Japan’s most
significant security threat. The strategy also called for enhanced defense
cooperation with the U.S., which is treaty-bound to come to Japan’s defense if
the island is attacked.

Weeks later, the U.S. and Japan agreed to restructure the U.S. Marine force
stationed in Okinawa, Japan, and erect bases of operation on scattered islands
closer to Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. The new strategy will replace some of
the 18,000 Marines deployed to Okinawa with battalions focused on operating
weapons that can reach the Chinese mainland and achieving heightened
maneuverability if they are called upon to defend Taiwan from a Chinese
invasion.

Over time, holding off an invasion will become increasingly difficult, experts
said.

“My timeframe would show a challenge for maintaining deterrence rising over
time, between now and mid-century,” Cronin told the DCNF.

“The Chinese have a lot of force they can bring to bear” against U.S. and
Japanese forces, Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Engagement program at
Defense Priorities, warned to the DCNF. “Not just aircraft and missiles, but
they could literally invade these smaller islands.”

The U.S has built a web of relationships with countries in the region as the
security situation grows increasingly tense.

In the Philippines, the U.S. will gain new military bases in 2023 as the two
countries seek to boost security cooperation, Bloomberg reported. Austin
announced in December the U.S. will boost the rotational presence of U.S. air,
land and sea forces in Australia, including six nuclear-capable bombers,
according to CNN.

Taiwan itself has made changes to increase its ability to fend off a Chinese
invasion, such as extending the length of mandatory military service in
December. However, analysts worry the island’s penchant for flashy, big-ticket
defense items have created the wrong arsenal to match an invading force as U.S.
arms transfers remain caught in a severe backlog.

Taiwan’s beaches, where China would seek to deploy landing craft, display “very
little evidence of serious defensive works,” Goldstein said. “There’s a lot of
evidence of resort hotels.”

The Department of Defense referred the DCNF to Austin’s joint statement on
Thursday.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and
nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news
publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must
include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any
questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please
contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.




Tags : australia china department of defense east china sea japan north korea
pentagon south china sea south korea taiwan taiwan strait
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Micaela Burrow




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