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Our Columnists


HOW MUCH DAMAGE ARE THE JANUARY 6TH HEARINGS DOING TO TRUMP?

Even as Republican support for another Trump Presidential bid appears to be
slipping, he can’t be counted out.

By John Cassidy

July 23, 2022
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Trump still has his MAGA movement, and the majority of elected Republicans are
still too frightened of him and his followers to cross him publicly.Photograph
by Seth Herald / Getty

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During a prime-time hearing on Thursday night, the House select committee
investigating the events of January 6, 2021, reminded us of the anguished
messages that Donald Trump’s family members and Fox News hosts sent to the White
House as he sat in his private dining room, watching the network’s coverage of
the violence unfolding on Capitol Hill, and flatly refusing to do anything about
it. “Please, get him on TV. Destroying everything you have accomplished,” Fox’s
Brian Kilmeade texted Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff.

How much political damage did Trump actually do to himself? In eight televised
hearings since early June, the January 6th committee has shown in great detail
how the now former President incited the riot, cheered it on, expressed sympathy
with the rioters’ desire to hang Vice-President Mike Pence, and, finally, as he
belatedly asked the insurrectionists to leave the Capitol, told them that he
loved them and that they were “very special.” The committee also convincingly
illustrated how Trump pursued his false claims about the 2020 election being
stolen from him even after his own legal advisers repeatedly told him these
claims were “completely bullshit,” as the former Attorney General Bill Barr put
it. In other words, Trump knew exactly what he was doing—using baseless claims
to try and pull off a self-coup, an autogolpe.


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In a properly functioning political system, these facts would surely disqualify
Trump from holding any public office again, let alone the Presidency. But, at
his second impeachment trial, in February, 2021, forty-three Republican senators
prevented the two-thirds conviction vote that would have put him out to pasture.
So here we are, eighteen months later, with the coup plotter indicating that he
intends to run again in 2024, and suggesting he might even declare before the
November midterms. If the Justice Department does eventually charge him, and a
court convicts him, that wouldn’t prevent him from running, legal experts say.

Yet, even among Republican voters, the televised hearings, with their relentless
drip-drip of damaging details, have certainly had some impact, surveys show. A
Reuters/Ipsos poll that was completed just before the latest hearing indicated
that forty per cent of self-identified Republicans now believe Trump was at
least partly to blame for the Capitol Hill violence, up from thirty-three per
cent before the hearings began. During the same period, the proportion of
Republicans who say they think Trump shouldn’t run again has risen from a
quarter to a third, the poll showed.

Other recent surveys have also provided some worrying findings for the former
President. A Times/Siena College poll indicated that about half of Republicans
would vote for someone other than Trump in a 2024 primary. Among Republican
respondents under thirty-five years old, nearly two-thirds said they would vote
against Trump. “Frankly, I think what I sense a little bit, even among some
deep, deep Trump supporters . . . there’s a certain exhaustion to it,” Bob
Vander Plaats, a Republican evangelical leader based in Iowa, told Politico this
week. Also, some influential Republican voices that once backed Trump have
turned against him. Citing Trump’s failure to repudiate the violence for more
than three hours on January 6th, Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post said, in an
editorial on Friday, “Trump has proven himself unworthy to be this country’s
chief executive again.”

Video From The New Yorker

Herd: A Ten-Year-Old Reckons with Death



These are significant developments. So is the fact that Trump can no longer use
Twitter to rile up his supporters with incendiary falsehoods. After Thursday’s
hearing, he went on a lengthy rant on his struggling social-media platform,
Truth Social, repeating his claims that the election was stolen, and dismissing
the select committee’s proceedings, which he has called a “Kangaroo Court.” If
he were still on Twitter, many more people would have seen and reacted to these
postings, and they probably would have received more media coverage.



On the other side of the ledger, Trump still has his MAGA movement—part nativist
revival, part personality cult—and the vast majority of elected Republicans are
still too frightened of him and his followers to cross him publicly. Last
weekend, I took a long drive through upstate New York and northeastern
Pennsylvania, and it was easy to see where this fear comes from. The small towns
and back roads were festooned with “Trump 2020” signs that had the last zero
covered over and replaced with a “4.” Other signs said “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted
for Trump.” That’s merely anecdotal evidence, of course. But the polling data,
on closer inspection, confirm that Trump and his twisted views retain a
disturbing amount of support.

The same polling organization that found that four in ten Republican voters are
now willing to concede Trump played some role in starting the violence on
January 6th—Reuters/Ipsos—also found that more than half of Republicans still
believe the 2020 election was stolen. According to the Real Clear Politics poll
average, which combines the results of individual surveys, Trump’s over-all
favorability rating has only dropped about two percentage points since this
summer’s televised hearings began: on June 9th, it was 43.8 per cent; on
Saturday, it was 41.9 per cent. Despite the recent slippage, the figure remains
within the same narrow range where it resided during most of Trump’s Presidency.

And, while some early state polls on the 2024 race primary show Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis catching, or nearly catching, Trump, particularly in Florida and
Michigan, most national polls tracked by fivethirtyeight.com show Trump well
ahead. For example, a Politico/Morning Consult poll released earlier this week
showed Trump at fifty-three per cent and DeSantis at twenty-three per cent. As
for the 2024 general election, a number of surveys carried out this month have
shown a putative Trump-Biden rematch falling within the margin of error. A new
Emerson College poll, which came out on Friday, has Trump at forty-six per cent
and Biden at forty-three per cent.

To be sure, it’s far too early to predict what will happen in 2024. Taken
together, however, the latest polls do provide a snapshot of where public
opinion stands now, and that picture isn’t entirely reassuring. Even as
Republican support for another Trump Presidential bid appears to be slipping, he
can’t be counted out. If he does enter the 2024 G.O.P. primary, much will depend
on the ability of his opponents to make the argument that it’s time for the
Party to move on.

By demonstrating so clearly and comprehensively Trump’s culpability before, on,
and after January 6, 2021, the House select committee has strengthened the hands
of his potential G.O.P. rivals, and this could conceivably be its biggest
legacy. But, even after all the committee’s sterling work, a Republican effort
to take down Trump would attract a barrage of counterattacks from him and his
supporters, and it would take courage and fortitude to withstand the onslaught.
Outside of the offices of Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Mitt Romney, and a few
others, these attributes are still in extremely short supply in G.O.P. circles.
That’s another thing in Trump’s favor. ♦






MORE ON THE JANUARY 6TH ATTACK

 * When the Capitol was breached, a New Yorker reporter became the sole
   journalist in the Senate chamber to witness its desecration.

 * Inside the chamber, Luke Mogelson captured raw, visceral footage of the
   siege.

 * Should Americans refer to the Sixth of January as a protest, an act of
   treason, or something else?

 * What the January 6th papers reveal.

 * How a mother of eight became one of the riot’s biggest mysteries, and a
   fugitive from the F.B.I.

 * The violence was what Donald Trump wanted.

 * If America is to remain a democracy, Trump must be held accountable.

Sign up for our daily newsletter to receive the best stories from The New
Yorker.

John Cassidy has been a staff writer at The New Yorker since 1995. He also
writes a column about politics, economics, and more for newyorker.com.

More:Donald TrumpCapitol RiotCongressional HearingsLiz CheneyWhite House2022
Midterm ElectionsRepublican Party (G.O.P.)


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Read More
comment
Herschel Walker’s Deficits Are Not the Only Cause for Concern
His Senate candidacy is a clear example of the warping effect that Donald Trump
has had on the Republican Party nationally.

By Jelani Cobb

comment
What Will Come of the January 6th Committee’s Case Against Trump?
At its final hearing of the summer, the committee continued to establish the
ex-President’s personal culpability in a number of events related to January
6th. The bigger issue may be how to hold him accountable.

By Amy Davidson Sorkin


letter-from-bidens-washington
A President Asking for Civil War
The January 6th committee closes in on Trump, but it may be too late.

By Susan B. Glasser

the-political-scene
Will Wisconsin’s Republicans Make Voting Meaningless, or Just Difficult?
Activists are combining voter suppression with election conspiracies to capture
the state in 2022 and beyond.

By Dan Kaufman




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