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IMF SAYS EMERGING ECONOMIES MUST PREPARE FOR FED POLICY TIGHTENING
In a blog published Monday, the IMF said it expected robust U.S. growth to
continue, with inflation likely to moderate later in the year. The global lender
is due to release fresh global economic forecasts on Jan. 25.
* Reuters
* January 10, 2022, 14:57 IST
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Emerging economies must prepare for U.S. interest rate hikes, the International
Monetary Fund said, warning that faster than expected Federal Reserve moves
could rattle financial markets and trigger capital outflows and currency
depreciation abroad.
In a blog published Monday, the IMF said it expected robust U.S. growth to
continue, with inflation likely to moderate later in the year. The global lender
is due to release fresh global economic forecasts on Jan. 25.
It said a gradual, well-telegraphed tightening of U.S. monetary policy would
likely have little impact on emerging markets, with foreign demand offsetting
the impact of rising financing costs.
But broad-based U.S. wage inflation or sustained supply bottlenecks could boost
prices more than anticipated and fuel expectations for more rapid inflation,
triggering faster rate hikes by the U.S. central bank.
"Emerging economies should prepare for potential bouts of economic turbulence,"
the IMF said, citing the risks posed by faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes and
the resurgent pandemic.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard this week said the Fed could raise
interest rates as soon as March, months earlier than previously expected, and is
now in a "good position" to take even more aggressive steps against inflation,
as needed.
"Faster Fed rate increases could rattle financial markets and tighten financial
conditions globally. These developments could come with a slowing of U.S. demand
and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging
markets," senior IMF officials wrote in the blog.
It said emerging markets with high public and private debt, foreign exchange
exposures, and lower current-account balances had already seen larger movements
of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.
The fund said emerging markets with stronger inflation pressures or weaker
institutions should act swiftly to let currencies depreciate and raise benchmark
interest rates.
It urged central banks to clearly and consistently communicate their plans to
tighten policy, and said countries with high levels of debt denominated in
foreign currencies should look to hedge their exposures where feasible.
Governments could also announce plans to boost fiscal resources by gradually
increasing tax revenues, implementing pension and subsidy overhauls, or other
measures, it added.
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POLICY
* 7 hrs ago
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ECONOMIC SURVEY MAY LOWER FY23 GROWTH NUMBERS
The survey is expected to project a strong recovery after the ongoing Covid-19
wave, but statistical growth is expected to be lower because of the waning base
effect that has bumped up the current year's GDP growth.
* Shrimi Choudhary
* ET Bureau
Click Here to Read This Story
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The Economic Survey that will be presented ahead of the Budget could forecast
the real economic growth for fiscal 2023 to be lower than the 9.2% estimated for
the current financial year, government officials said.
The survey is expected to project a strong recovery after the ongoing Covid-19
wave, but statistical growth is expected to be lower because of the waning base
effect that has bumped up the current year's GDP growth.
The survey for FY22 is likely to be tabled in Parliament on January 31, a day
before the Union Budget, and may have just one volume instead of two, which has
been the trend for the past six years.
It is likely to stress on continuing fiscal stimulus in FY23 and reiterate that
the impact of the third wave of the pandemic may be limited to the ongoing last
quarter of FY22.
“The outcome of structural reforms will be visible from next fiscal year,” a
government source told ET.
The growth projection would be in line with the forecasts by the Reserve Bank of
India, global institutions and ratings firms. Most institutions believe that a
consumer-led recovery and easing supply disruptions will make recovery
broad-based.
In October monetary policy report, the RBI has projected the economic growth to
be 7.8% in FY23, while the World Bank has forecast 8.7%. International ratings
firms S&P and Moody’s see the growth at 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively.
The Economic Survey had last year projected 11% growth for FY22. The first
advance estimates released by the government on January 7 suggested it be 9.2%,
lower than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5% for the current financial year.
Single volume survey
The survey sets the background for the Budget. Until 2014, it reviewed the
developments in the economy during the financial year, summarised the
performance on major development programmes, and highlighted the policy
initiatives of the government.
In 2014, the then chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian presented a
two-volume survey, and the practice continued since then. The first volume,
typically, contained thoughts on the state of the economy, important current
issues, specific challenges faced by the country, and at times some
forward-looking reforms and suggestions. Volume two has been a more traditional
assessment of the economy during the year.
This time, the survey is being drafted in absence of a CEA as the government has
yet to appoint a replacement for Krishnamurthy Subramanian, who demitted the
office on December 17, 2021 after the end of his three-year term.
The single volume may have two parts. The first part may talk about the
government’s vision briefly. The second could cover the policy initiatives the
government has undertaken since the outbreak of Covid-19 and how they helped in
the fast-paced recovery in 2021-22.
“In the absence of the CEA, this time, it won’t be as prescriptive in suggesting
reforms. Rather, it will focus on initiatives like production-linked incentive
schemes, monetisation plans and how it has started showing positive results,”
said a source.
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BUDGET 2022: GOVT MAY CONSIDER LEVYING TDS/TCS ON CRYPTO TRADING
The government is mulling changes in income tax laws to bring cryptocurrencies
under the tax net, and some changes that could form part of the 2022-23 Budget.
* ETBFSI
Click Here to Read This Story
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The government could consider levying TDS/TCS on sale and purchase of
cryptocurrencies above a certain threshold, and that such transactions should be
brought within the ambit of specified transaction for the purpose of reporting
to income tax authorities.
Considering the size of the market, the amount involved, and the risk coupled
with cryptocurrencies, certain changes may be brought in the taxation of
cryptocurrencies like bringing them under the provisions of tax deducted at
source (TDS) and tax collected at source (TCS) above a threshold limit which
will help the government get the "footprints of the investors", according to
Nangia Andersen LLP Tax Leader Aravind Srivatsan.
Also, a higher tax rate of 30 per cent should be levied on the income arising
from the sale of cryptocurrency, similar to winnings from lottery, game shows,
puzzle, etc, he said.
Currently, India has the highest number of crypto owners globally, at 10.07
crore and as per a report it is expected that the investment by Indians in
cryptocurrency could touch $241 million by 2030.
"A bill was expected to be presented during Winter Session of Parliament to
regulate cryptocurrencies. However, it was not introduced, and it is now
expected that the government may take up this bill in the Budget Session. If the
government does not prohibit Indians from dealing in cryptocurrencies, we expect
that the government could introduce a regressive tax regime for
cryptocurrencies," he noted.
SFT ambit
Both sale and purchase of cryptocurrencies should be brought under the ambit of
reporting in the Statement of Financial Transactions (SFT).
The trading companies already do similar reporting of sale and purchase of
shares and units of mutual funds, he said.
To keep a watch on high value transactions undertaken by the taxpayer, the
Income-tax law has the concept of SFT or reportable account.
This helps tax authorities to collect information on certain prescribed high
value transactions undertaken by any person during the year.
Financial institutions, companies and stock market intermediaries fall within
the purview of SFT reporting. Srivatsan said similar to winnings from lottery,
game shows, puzzle, etc., a higher tax rate of 30 per cent should be levied on
the income arising from the sale of cryptocurrency.
Ahead of the winter session of Parliament which ended on December 23, the
government had listed for introduction a bill on regulating cryptocurrencies.
The bill comes amid concerns over such currencies being allegedly used for
luring investors with misleading claims.
Currently, there is no regulation or any ban on use of cryptocurrencies in the
country.
The 'Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill' is now
expected to be introduced in the Budget session of Parliament beginning January
31.
Separately, the government is mulling changes in income tax laws to bring
cryptocurrencies under the tax net, and some changes that could form part of the
2022-23 Budget.
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UNION BUDGET: GOVT STARES AT A BIGGER FISCAL DEFICIT ON DISINVESTMENT MISS
A set of experts believe that the government should not worry much about fiscal
deficit as the unprecedented event is yet to end. But building a bridge between
a missing target of disinvestment and new projections is neither an easy task
nor a decision to make. The only cushion is buoyant tax receipts.
* ETCFO
Click Here to Read This Story
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The central government's fiscal deficit is likely to overshoot the target by
about Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the current financial year ending March, primarily on
account of a shortfall in disinvestment receipts. The government's fiscal
deficit to print at Rs 16.6 lakh crore or 7.1 per cent of the GDP in FY2022,
overshooting the budgeted target, according to the rating agency ICRA.
With the state governments' fiscal deficit projected at a relatively modest 3.3
per cent of GDP in FY2022, the general government fiscal deficit is estimated at
around 10.4 per cent of the GDP.
Base and adverse case scenarios
In the base case for FY2023, it sees the government's fiscal deficit moderating
to Rs 15.2 lakh crore or 5.8 per cent of GDP.
In the adverse case, the agency projects the fiscal deficit at a higher Rs 17.9
lakh crore.
Although the planned ceasing of GST compensation could cause the state
governments' fiscal deficit to rise to the cap of 3.5 per cent of the GSDP set
by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, the general government deficit will still
compress to 9.3 per cent of the GDP in FY2023, it said.
Even with this uncertainty, ICRA said Budget FY23 should ring-fence the funds
that can realistically be absorbed for capital expenditure and infrastructure
spending. Such outlays will help fuel the investment cycle, create employment
opportunities and improve domestic demand.
Tax receipts
The government had estimated Rs 1.75 lakh crore as receipts from disinvestment
and strategic sale of public sector units in FY22, but is likely to miss it with
a large margin.
However, with a palpable buoyancy in tax collections, the government's gross tax
receipts is expected to overshoot the budgeted amount by a healthy Rs 2.5 lakh
crore in FY2022.
However, the net tax revenue gains to GoI would be nullified by the expected
large miss on receipts from disinvestment and back-ended spending, especially on
those items that were included in the Second Supplementary Demand for Grants,
such as food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives/remissions under
various export promotion schemes (such as Merchandise Exports from India and
Rebate of State and Central Levies and Taxes), equity infusion into Air India
Assets Holding Ltd, etc.
GST hit
The Union Budget for FY2023 will face some constraints, owing to an expected
slowdown in the growth in indirect taxes following the excise relief provided
recently, and the moderation in nominal GDP growth to around 12.5 per cent from
the 17.5 per cent expected in FY2022.
Besides, macroeconomic uncertainty will linger on account of the potential
emergence of new mutations and fresh waves of COVID-19, which may eventually
necessitate additional spending by way of extension of free food grains scheme
and higher spending on MGNREGA.
"Given this backdrop, the government's ability to cement higher growth in direct
taxes and garner disinvestment receipts would play a critical role in
determining the extent of the fiscal consolidation that is feasible in FY2023,"
it said.
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FINANCE MINISTER HOLDS PRE-BUDGET STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION WITH BJP
FUNCTIONARIES
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday held a pre-budget stakeholder
consultation with BJP leaders as well as professionals, business leaders,
academicians and economists associated with the party.
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NEW DELHI: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday held a pre-budget
stakeholder consultation with BJP leaders as well as professionals, business
leaders, academicians and economists associated with the party.
Representatives from 25 BJP state units participated in the virtual discussion,
the party said in a statement
The consultation was also attended by national leaders, party general secretary
Arun Singh, vice-president Baijayant Panda and spokesperson Gopal Krishan
Agarwal, among others, it said.
Some prominent think-tank members and presidents of BJP's various wing also
presented their views and suggestions.
About 20 written submissions have been received and these will be compiled and
submitted to the finance minister, the statement issued by Agarwal said.
Sitharaman thanked all the party functionaries for their suggestions, it said.
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ICRA SUGGESTS LONG-TERM FINANCE AT LOW RATES FOR POWER, RENEWABLES IN BUDGET
The rating agency said that incentives and relevant policy measures are needed
to promote investments in the energy storage segment, considering the increasing
share of renewables in the electricity generation mix.
* IANS
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New Delhi: Availability of adequate long-term financing at competitive rates is
key in achieving India's renewable as well as sustainable goals, rating agency
ICRA said as part of its pre-Budget expectations report.
The Union Budget for FY23 will be tabled in the Parliament on February 1.
The rating agency said that incentives and relevant policy measures are needed
to promote investments in the energy storage segment, considering the increasing
share of renewables in the electricity generation mix.
"This apart, policy measures are required to revive the stranded gas-based
projects, which would enable availability of balancing power sources," it said.
To augment domesting manufacturing of solar modules, the Centre must increase
the production-linked incentives outlay for the manufacturers, it added.
For power distribution companies, the budgetary allocation must be increased to
improve transmission infrastructure (both at intra-state and inter-state levels)
for evacuation power from the regions having high renewable energy potential.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the COP26 meet in Glasgow, said India aims to
increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030, besides the country
wishes to fulfil 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable energy
sources by 2030.
Also, India intends to reduce its total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion
tonnes by 2030 and ultimately, become a net zero carbon emitter by 2070.
--IANS
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KEY ISSUE BEFORE BUDGET IS TO MAINTAIN MARKET CONFIDENCE: RAGHURAM RAJAN
"We have to give a pathway for how to get back on track, a pathway which seems
credible, so that the markets have some notion that we are not going to be
profligate."
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"I would see the Budget document not so much as raising tariff A and providing
subsidy B but really a document which says this is the path we choose over the
next five years and every year we update it a little but that path, that vision
seems relatively constant," says Raghuram Rajan, Former RBI Governor & Prof of
Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
With the Budget 2022-23 just around the corner, how do you think the government
should approach the Budget, we have done exceptionally well on the revenue front
and so despite the shortfall in disinvestment, because of the increase in GDP
nominal value, maybe the fiscal deficit is likely to remain within that 6-7%
range? What kind of deficit should the government target for the next fiscal?
The key issue is to maintain the confidence of the markets, of the general
public and that means rolling out a framework. One cannot say this is going to
be what we do this year and we will figure out what we do next year and so on.
If we do want to spend more in a particular year, we have to give a pathway for
how to get back on track, a pathway which seems credible, so that the markets
have some notion that we are not going to be profligate.
We talked earlier about certain areas which need attention simply because of the
K-shape that Dr Subbarao, whom I respect tremendously, talked about. That said
there is also a need to some extent of supporting demand and the clearest and
least sort of targeted way is infrastructure which we need and infrastructure is
done both by the Centre but the states. It is important to ensure that the
states are doing what they can there because that will be important for creating
some of the low end jobs which are desperately needed but also creating demand
for domestic steel, for copper, cement etc, etc.
It is quite important to have infrastructure well funded, to have some of the
support programmes like MNREGA etc well funded and to think about targeting the
areas that are doing quite badly right now but need support going forward.
The other big thing that I would argue for in the Budget is a new vision. We are
still stuck in trying to make incremental moves and sometimes in the wrong
direction relative to the vision of the past but what we have learnt from the
pandemic is that global services offer us a new area where we can expand
significantly. Relying on our strengths, we already do well in a variety of
global services but what about telemedicine, tele lawyering, edutech? These are
areas where we need to look at and say what do those industries need in terms of
government support? It is not funding, it is often better rules on data
protection which meet the standards of the European Union and allows us to
export services to the European Union.
These are things we should be thinking about and they are not trade agreements.
Stop talking about just manufacturing or agriculture, talk about services which
is our big area. What will it take to expand our services to ensure that a
consultant in Bangalore can provide consultancy services in Chicago? That is a
vision we need but we are still stuck in the past and that past is getting
harder and harder. Manufacturing-led growth, which is what a PLI production
linked incentives seems to be focussed on, is something that is getting more and
more difficult simply because everybody has woken up to the fact that China was
there and what China did and nobody is going to accept a new China. We need to
change this sense of being stuck in the past.
We keep hearing this case for more structural reforms but look at what happened
when the government did try to do structural reforms. Whether it is farm laws or
labour, the government in a democracy like ours is caught between a rock and a
hard place and is forced to backtrack. So what can one really do?
I think the idea is to be democratic, to talk to people, to bring together
states with the Centre and then devise a plan. It is much harder and requires
far more action by far more people at the Centre which then means expanding the
sphere of governance from the PMO to a broader set of people. My sense is we can
do more, we should do more, some of it can still be done by the Centre and
nobody cares about laws governing services. That is something the Centre can do
without mass agitation, but it should do it thoughtfully.
Similarly, on areas affecting a lot of people, talk to more people, get people
on board. It is tough. Nobody is minimising the problem but with a government of
this kind of power in the ability to enact legislation, it behoves it to
actually talk to people and get it through. That is the lesson from the farm
laws. There may be a lot of good things in it but if you have not sold it more
widely and there are some bad things, given what some states want, you have to
accommodate their interests.
It is give and take and if you can manage that, there is no reason why you
cannot move forward. So, I think it just requires far more sort of consultation
than we have seen. Every time the government has to show that they are
consulting and understanding how things have changed in the recent past and
adopt the policy accordingly.
If you were to advise the government whether as chief economic advisor or as
Reserve Bank of India governor, what would be your top three priority areas?
The government has plenty of good advisors and do not need me to give advice. I
certainly would not ignore the side of the economy which is doing badly. It is
tempting to look at the stock market and say there are no problems but in fact
if you do not, if you ignore the hurting part, we have longer term problems. So
we need to worry about that tremendously.
If there is a resource constraint, think about enhancing the pace of the asset
sales, not just companies but also potentially surplus land etc. Those can be
beneficial for the economy and can be put to better use but those are things
that we need to think about. I would move away from raising tariffs and so on.
In fact, we should be thinking about pulling off or bringing down some of what
we have done but that debate will continue in India more broadly. I would like
to see a vision of what it is that we are trying to do, where it is that we are
trying to go. And my sense is that any kind of vision that emphasises our
strengths will include the fact that we are a democratic country with rule of
law, with a judicial system that can go against the government, those are our
strengths and will be the way we build our new economy.
I would like to see an articulation of some of that rather than a blind aping of
the way that China went or some east Asian countries did. We are not those
countries and we do not have the ability to go in the direction that they went.
The Budget, whatever it is worth, is the central statement by the government and
there is a chance for the government to make a statement that shows that it has
thought about where are going and has a sense of how that can be made possible
and try and emphasise what our view is on a variety of issues, including foreign
investors, including privatisation and so on.
I would see the Budget document not so much as raising tariff A and providing
subsidy B but really a document which says this is the path we choose over the
next five years and every year we update it a little but that path, that vision
seems relatively constant.
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DOLLAR FINDS A FOOTING AS TRADERS BRACE FOR HAWKISH FED
The dollar clung to a late week bounce on Monday as investors braced for
January's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and raised bets it will chart a year
ahead holding several rate hikes, while China surprised analysts with a
benchmark cut.
* Reuters
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SYDNEY: The dollar clung to a late week bounce on Monday as investors braced for
January's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and raised bets it will chart a year
ahead holding several rate hikes, while China surprised analysts with a
benchmark cut.
Chinese economic growth data, due later on Monday (0200 GMT), a Bank of Japan
policy meeting which concludes on Tuesday, British inflation data on Wednesday
and Australian jobs figures on Thursday are also in view as traders gauge the
global policy outlook.
The dollar was 0.2% higher at 114.45 yen early in the Asia session, about 0.8%
above a Friday low. It also edged about 0.1% firmer on the euro to $1.1403.
The moves follow the dollar's jump on Friday along with U.S. yields and
underscore support for the greenback from the hawkish rates outlook, even if
momentum for gains has started to wane.
The U.S. dollar index, which declined sharply last week until Friday's leap, sat
at 95.225 in Asia on Monday.
"Friday's move suggest to me that the interest rate driver for dollar strength
is not dead and buried," said National Australia Bank's head of foreign exchange
strategy Ray Attrill.
He said it may not necessarily return to drive new dollar highs, but added:
"We've had a hawkish twist out of every Fed meeting since June last year."
The Fed meets Jan. 25-26 and is not expected to move rates, but there is a
growing drumbeat of hawkish comments coming from within and outside the central
bank.
Last week, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon remarked that there could be "six or
seven" hikes this year and billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman floated on
Twitter over the weekend the possibility of an initial 50 basis point hike to
tame inflation.
The cash Treasury market was closed for a holiday on Monday but 10-year futures
were sold to a two-year low and Fed funds futures also fell, reflecting a
strengthening conviction in the market of at least four hikes in 2022.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which dropped sharply on Friday,
remained under pressure on Monday. The Aussie
was last down 0.2% at $0.7200, ending for now a brief foray above resistance
around $0.7276.
The kiwi edged 0.2% lower to $0.6791.
In China, bonds rallied and the yuan slipped after the central bank cut
borrowing costs for medium-term loans for the first time since April 2020,
defying market expectations.
Ten-year government bond futures rose to their highest since June 2020 after the
move and the yuan began onshore trade marginally softer at 6.3555 per dollar.
Chinese gross domestic product figures due at 0200 GMT are expected to show
annual growth at its slowest in 18 months as a property downturn drags on
demand.
Elsewhere a month-long rally for sterling has petered out around its 200-day
moving average. It held at $1.3669 on Monday, but analysts say it could resume
gains if inflation data makes the case for higher interest rates.
"Interest rate markets are currently pricing an 80% + chance of a 25 bp rate
hike by the Bank of England on 3 February," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia
strategist Joe Capurso.
"A quicker pace of inflation could see pricing move closer to 100%."
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BUDGET 2022-23 TO BE PRESENTED ON FEBRUARY 1: ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
The first half of the budget session will run from January 31 to February 11. It
will reassemble on March 14 to sit until April 8, subject to government
exigencies.
* TIMESOFINDIA.COM
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NEW DELHI: Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to present the Union
Budget 2022-23 on February 1.
In a letter additional secretary-general of ministry of Parliamentary affairs
said that the budget session of Parliament will commence on January 31 with
address of President Ram Nath Kovind to both the Houses.
The first half of the budget session will run from January 31 to February 11. It
will reassemble on March 14 to sit until April 8, subject to government
exigencies.
This will be the 10th budget presented by the Narendra Modi-led BJP government
since its appointment in 2014.
The budget assumes importance as it is being announced at a time when the
country is battling the third wave of Covid-19.
The Centre is also likely to present the Economic Survey in Parliament, one day
ahead of the budget on January 31.
India's annual gross domestic product (GDP) slumped in 2020-21 due to continued
lockdowns which led to disruption in economic activities. As a result, GDP for
FY21 contracted to 7.3 per cent.
In a recent data released by the Centre, GDP growth is expected to witness a
V-shaped recovery for FY22 by rising to 9.2 per cent in wake of easing
restrictions. But, rising number of cases due to spread of Omicron variant may
cause some hindrance. However, the impact will be seen in coming days.
Hence, GDP estimation will be a key number to look forward to.
Last year, the budget was delivered in paperless format for first time.
Sitharaman had arrived for budget presentation carrying a tablet instead of the
traditional 'bahi-khata'.
She had also launched the Union Budget mobile app for hassle-free access of
budget documents by member of Parliaments (MPs) and the general public using the
simplest form of digital convenience.
The format for presentation of this year's budget has not been announced yet.
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BUDGET SESSION OF PARLIAMENT TO COMMENCE ON JANUARY 31
The first half of the budget session will run from January 31 to February 11. It
will reassemble on March 14 to sit until April 8, subject to government
exigencies.
* ANI
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New Delhi [India], January 14 (ANI): Budget session of Parliament is set to
commence on January 31 and will conclude on April 8.
The first half of the budget session will run from January 31 to February 11. It
will reassemble on March 14 to sit until April 8, subject to government
exigencies.
The President will also address both Houses of Parliament assembled together on
11 am on January 31.
The government will present the Budget for the financial year 2022-23 on
February 1.
"The 256th Session of Rajya Sabha (Budget Session - 2022) is summoned to meet on
Monday, January 31, and subject to exigencies of Government Business, the
Session may conclude on Friday, April 8. During this period, Chairman may be
moved to kindly adjourn the Rajya Sabha on Friday, February 11 to reassemble on
Monday, March 14 to enable the Department-related Parliamentary Standing
Committees to consider the 'Demands for Grants relating to
Ministries/Departments and prepare their reports," a letter of Additional
secretary-general of Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs Minister stated.
There will be no sitting on March 18 on account of Holi.
"The Union Budget for 2022-23 will be laid in the Rajya Sabha after its
presentation in Lok Sabha on Tuesday, February 1 at 11.00 am," the letter said.
Recently more than 400 staff members of Parliament have tested positive for
COVID-19. Consequently, the Chairman of Rajya Sabha and Speaker of Lok Sabha has
reviewed the situation and given instructions to both houses to prepare a plan
for the smooth functioning of both houses during the budget session of
Parliament amid COVID -19 Pandemic. (ANI)
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HOW BUDGET 2022 CAN BE USED TO REVIVE CONSUMPTION FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
The government should look at devising measures to revive consumption for
economic growth. Increasing investments in infrastructure development, skill
upgrading, digital augmentation, job creation, and MSME development could help
reignite consumption in the economy.
* ET CONTRIBUTORS
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After a rumpled start in FY 21-22 due to the second wave of COVID-19, the
consumer market sector began to pick-up during second half of the year.
According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), retail buying during
Diwali season nearly doubled to approximately Rs 1.25 lakh crores vis-à-vis the
previous year. However, with surging cases of the new Omicron variant, the
sector has been put back on survival mode. On the other hand, the rising input
costs pertaining to packaging material, labour and freight have begun to shrink
the margins of consumer goods companies. With this backdrop, the sector is
looking forward to the upcoming Budget 2022-23 with high expectations.
The industry would keep an eye out for relaxation in respect of the production
targets prescribed in recently introduced Production Linked Incentive Schemes
for white goods, food and textile. The said scheme was introduced by the
Government to boost the indigenous production of various goods. Given that the
production may see a decline due to present and proposed lockdowns and curfews,
the industry may seek out relaxation in the production targets which are
required to be met under the said scheme. Similarly, the retail industry may
seek extension of the time limit for setting up manufacturing units to avail
lower corporate tax rate under Sec 115BAB of Income Tax Act 1961, which
presently stands on 31 March 2023.
Secondly, it is imperative for the government to rethink on implementation of
stricter provisions under GST like 100% input tax credit reconciliation,
recovery proceedings due to mismatch in returns without issuance of notice etc.,
which adversely impact the working capital position for an already distressed
sector.
Further, clarity/relaxation on issues like input tax credit restrictions on
promotional items, samples, employee insurance, de-linking of secondary
discounts with the terms of agreement etc. are some other areas where the
industry is hoping for some favourable announcements. Removal of blockage of
input GST tax costs on construction, renovation of shops, warehouses have been a
long-pending demand of the sector. Accordingly, any announcement allowing
deduction of tax cost on construction against output GST, would be most welcomed
by the industry.
Transitional credits and frequent changes in tax rates have paved the way for
anti-profiteering issues in the retail sector. Further, most companies have not
been able to directly pass the benefits to customers. With further extension of
tenure of anti-profiteering provisions, ambiguity on how to compute and
determine the manufacturer’s profit would continue to discomfort the industry.
Clarity on this aspect could lead to allaying the fears of the industry of any
unwarranted enquires, proceedings by authorities.
The recently introduced provision requiring food aggregators to collect and
deposit GST on deliveries effected through their platform, has added to the woes
of companies operating in this segment. Although certain clarifications were
issued in this regard, industry may require transitional relief in implementing
the said provisions.
The government’s focus on improving digital infrastructure across the country
and working towards improving connectivity in rural areas will help drive growth
and make rural the big battleground for consumer companies.
Lastly, no budget is complete without MSMEs and support for the overall retail
landscape. With changing rules of businesses, omnichannel retailing and
last-mile deliveries being critical cogs in retail, the government should
consider these sectoral issues and provide investments in developing supply and
delivery infrastructure. MSMEs continue to be the backbone for economic growth.
In a bid to boost local manufacturing and promoting self-reliance, we could
expect the budget to focus on growth of small and medium enterprises as they can
support the nation’s need to generate significant employment. Enabling
entrepreneurship is key. To boost the startup ecosystem, the government may look
to liberalise the start-up regime further in context of tax benefits,
eligibility conditions etc. Moreover, we could expect certain relief packages or
lower interest on capital for start-ups.
Given the consumer oriented population in India, the right impetus from the
government will certainly help the consumer markets sector realise its potential
and perform as one of the most potent growth levers for the Indian economy. And
to realise this objective, the upcoming Budget provides the government with a
wonderful opportunity to announce measures which can pave the way for the sector
to spread its wings and fire its growth engines to full throttle.
In summary, the government should look at devising measures to revive
consumption for economic growth. Increasing investments in infrastructure
development, skill upgrading, digital augmentation, job creation, and MSME
development could help reignite consumption in the economy. We sense a budget
that is supportive of this sector, thereby helping consumer facing companies
thrive and drive India’s consumption economy.
Harsha Razdan is Partner and Head, Consumer Markets and Internet Business, KPMG
in India. Harpreet Singh is Partner, Indirect Tax, KPMG in India.
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