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Submission: On October 22 via api (October 22nd 2024, 3:42:43 pm UTC) from US — Scanned from DE

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Text Content

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


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   NWS All NOAA

Hazard Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24 Excessive Rainfall No AreaNo AreaNo Area Heavy Snow (≥
4”)No AreaModerateNo Area Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area

WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
 
Winter Storm Severity Index
 
Experimental HeatRisk


 * Overview
 * Surface Analysis
 * Fronts
 * QPF
 * Excessive Rain
 * Winter Wx
 * Day 3–7
 * Forecast Tools

National Forecast Chart

Valid Tue Oct 22, 2024

Valid Wed Oct 23, 2024

Valid Thu Oct 24, 2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3

Image Format:
English (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)
Español (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)

Interactive Map

» Interactive National Forecast Chart
+ Additional Links
 * » Description of the National Forecast Chart
 * » Product Archives
 * » Download hazards in KML or shapefile format or GeoJSON format

WPC Top Stories:

Understanding WPC's Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories

View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather

Looking for data from WPC products in a GIS format?

Check out the WPC interactive virtual tour!
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 12Z Mon Oct 21, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Mon Oct 21, 2024
Analyzed at 18Z Mon Oct 21, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Mon Oct 21, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
 
 * -24 hr
 * -21 hr
 * -18 hr
 * -15 hr
 * -12 hr
 * -9 hr
 * -6 hr
 * -3 hr
 * latest

Image Format:
Standard
Satellite Composite
Radar Composite
Black and White
Fronts Only

Interactive Map

» Interactive Surface Map
» NWS Unified Surface Analysis
+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archives
 * » NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
 * » Other Surface Analysis Products

Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 12Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Valid 18Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 06Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
 
 * 12ZTue
 *  18ZTue
 * 00ZWed
 * 06ZWed
 * 12ZWed
 * 00ZThu
 * 12ZThu
 *  12ZFri
 * 12ZSat
 * 12ZSun
 * 12ZMon
 * 12ZTue


+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024

...Rain showers across Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today...

...Snow showers for the Northern Rockies...

...Well above-average temperatures continue over the Central and Eastern
U.S...


A relatively active northern stream will promote sensible weather across
the northern tier states over the next couple of days. Rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms focused along a cold front will spread from North
Dakota this morning to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight. The once
cut-off low over the Central Plains will quickly phase with the northern
stream and amplify over the East by Thursday morning. In the meantime,
warm southerly advection into the central and eastern U.S. will produce
temperatures that are 15-25 degrees above average, particularly for
portions of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast.

Ridging over northern Mexico will keep temperatures in the southern U.S.
relatively warm during this period. Continued troughing in the Northwest
will generate cooler temperatures and some snow showers today and
Wednesday. Snow showers will be confined to the Northern Rockies with a
few inches expected for portions of the Absaroka Range, in particular.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

...General Overview...

A quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern should be in place across
most of the country on Friday, with broad cyclonic flow across the
Great Lakes and a departing trough off the Northeast Coast. The
pattern is expected to trend more amplified by early next week as a
large scale trough builds in across the Western U.S., accompanied
by a strong cold front and precipitation for the northwestern
quadrant of the nation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge and widespread
above average temperatures are likely from the Plains to the East
Coast, with the surface high slowly moving offshore by Tuesday and
allowing for southerly flow ahead of the Western U.S. trough.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance has come into better agreement with the
overall synoptic scale pattern across the continental U.S. and the
upcoming pattern change with a more amplified upper level flow
evolving later in the forecast period. It is worth noting that
there are still some differences in the latest GFS runs across the
West Coast region regarding the arrival of the trough axis, showing
a slower trend with the height falls compared to the more
progressive CMC/ECMWF/ensemble mean solutions, including the GEFS
means. Therefore, the WPC forecast was hedged slightly more in the
CMC/ECMWF direction for early next week. The ensemble means were
gradually increased to about 40% by next Tuesday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall as moisture will be limited despite a few
frontal boundaries and troughs passing through. Warm air advection
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday around the
backside of the surface high and ahead of the cold front should
support mainly light showers. There may also be a few showers
across portions of the Southeast states, but these should be more
scattered and many areas should remain dry.

The exception will be western Washington and Oregon where onshore
flow and terrain enhancement will tend to increase rainfall
prospects across this region, mainly next weekend as the moisture
plume ahead of the Pacific front moves inland. A few inches of
rainfall will be possible for the coastal ranges and the western
slopes of the Cascades. Heavy snow is possible for the highest
mountains inland through the Northwest. However, the rainfall
totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5 period
(Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive rainfall
outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Widespread highs
10-20+ degrees above average are looking likely across the Plains
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week as the ridge
axis builds and a warm front lifts well to the north into southern
Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler conditions are expected
across much of the Western U.S. as a pattern change evolves and an
upper trough develops over the region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 30 2024

A surface low embedded within a larger scale inverted trough is
expected across the far northwestern Islands for the middle of the
week, with perhaps a weaker secondary low developing near it and
merging with it. Meanwhile, another low is likely to develop well
to the northeast of Hawaii midweek and stay away from the state.
Going into the end of the week and the weekend, the guidance has
come into better overall agreement with the surface pressure
pattern.

Trade wind flow should generally be from the east most days, and
since the main surface high and its stronger pressure gradient
should be well north of the state, winds should be light to
moderate most days. The surface winds may veer slightly to the
east-southeast towards the end of the week. In terms of
precipitation prospects, no major rainfall events appear likely
over the next 5 days, with good overall agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF on this scenario.

Hamrick



+ Additional Links
 * » More Surface Analysis Products
 * » More Short Range Products
 * » More Medium Range Products

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 00Z 10/23/2024
Valid 18Z 10/22/2024 - 06Z 10/23/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 06Z 10/23/2024 - 18Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 18Z 10/22/2024
Valid 18Z 10/22/2024 - 00Z 10/23/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 06Z 10/23/2024
Valid 06Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 18Z 10/23/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 06Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 *  Total:  Day 1-2
 * Day 1-3
 * Day 1-5
 * Day 1-7

 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z
 * 06-18Z
 * 12-00Z
 * 18-06Z
 * 00-12Z

 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z
 * 12-18Z
 * 18-00Z
 * 00-06Z
 * 06-12Z

 * Day 4/5
 * Day 6/7

Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)

» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
   Monitor




» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
 * » Product Verification
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Additional formats of QPF: GRIB 2 | Shapefiles | KML
 * » Other QPF Products

Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 16Z Tue Oct 22 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5


Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024


It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall as moisture will be limited despite a few
frontal boundaries and troughs passing through. Warm air advection
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday around the
backside of the surface high and ahead of the cold front should
support mainly light showers. There may also be a few showers
across portions of the Southeast states, but these should be more
scattered and many areas should remain dry.

The exception will be western Washington and Oregon where onshore
flow and terrain enhancement will tend to increase rainfall
prospects across this region, mainly next weekend as the moisture
plume ahead of the Pacific front moves inland. A few inches of
rainfall will be possible for the coastal ranges and the western
slopes of the Cascades. Heavy snow is possible for the highest
mountains inland through the Northwest. However, the rainfall
totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5 period
(Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive rainfall
outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Widespread highs
10-20+ degrees above average are looking likely across the Plains
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week as the ridge
axis builds and a warm front lifts well to the north into southern
Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler conditions are expected
across much of the Western U.S. as a pattern change evolves and an
upper trough develops over the region.

Hamrick



Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024


It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall as moisture will be limited despite a few
frontal boundaries and troughs passing through. Warm air advection
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday around the
backside of the surface high and ahead of the cold front should
support mainly light showers. There may also be a few showers
across portions of the Southeast states, but these should be more
scattered and many areas should remain dry.

The exception will be western Washington and Oregon where onshore
flow and terrain enhancement will tend to increase rainfall
prospects across this region, mainly next weekend as the moisture
plume ahead of the Pacific front moves inland. A few inches of
rainfall will be possible for the coastal ranges and the western
slopes of the Cascades. Heavy snow is possible for the highest
mountains inland through the Northwest. However, the rainfall
totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5 period
(Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive rainfall
outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Widespread highs
10-20+ degrees above average are looking likely across the Plains
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week as the ridge
axis builds and a warm front lifts well to the north into southern
Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler conditions are expected
across much of the Western U.S. as a pattern change evolves and an
upper trough develops over the region.

Hamrick



+ Additional Links
 * » Product Info
 * » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
 * » Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology

Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 10/22/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
 
 * Day 1
 * Day 2
 * Day 3
 *  Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7
 * 
   

Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts

Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook

» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)


Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024

...Greater Yellowstone...
Day 2...

A rather positively tilted trough extending WSW from southern BC
closed off into a mid-level low today west of WA. This low then
opens into a compact trough and ejects east Wednesday with the H5
trough axis crossing greater Yellowstone late Wednesday night. Snow
levels in the moisture ahead of this wave are 8000-9000ft. The
only snow probs for >4" in the WWD forecast period are on Day 2 and
in the 20-40% range over the northern Absarokas in MT and for the
Tetons. There is about a 10% risk for 6" in the Red Lodge portion
toward Beartooth Pass.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Jackson





+ Additional Links
 * » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
 * » Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
 * » Product Verification
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Forecast Surface Low Positions: Uncertainty Circles | Ensemble Clusters
 * » Other Winter Weather Products

Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
 
 * Day 3
 * Day 4
 * Day 5
 * Day 6
 * Day 7

Image Options:
Fronts
Max Temp (°F)
Max Temp Anomaly (°F)
Min Temp (°F)
Min Temp Anomaly (°F)
24-hr Pop(%)
500mb Heights

Day 3-7 Hazards
Additional Products

+ Forecast Discussion

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

...General Overview...

A quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern should be in place across
most of the country on Friday, with broad cyclonic flow across the
Great Lakes and a departing trough off the Northeast Coast. The
pattern is expected to trend more amplified by early next week as a
large scale trough builds in across the Western U.S., accompanied
by a strong cold front and precipitation for the northwestern
quadrant of the nation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge and widespread
above average temperatures are likely from the Plains to the East
Coast, with the surface high slowly moving offshore by Tuesday and
allowing for southerly flow ahead of the Western U.S. trough.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance has come into better agreement with the
overall synoptic scale pattern across the continental U.S. and the
upcoming pattern change with a more amplified upper level flow
evolving later in the forecast period. It is worth noting that
there are still some differences in the latest GFS runs across the
West Coast region regarding the arrival of the trough axis, showing
a slower trend with the height falls compared to the more
progressive CMC/ECMWF/ensemble mean solutions, including the GEFS
means. Therefore, the WPC forecast was hedged slightly more in the
CMC/ECMWF direction for early next week. The ensemble means were
gradually increased to about 40% by next Tuesday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall as moisture will be limited despite a few
frontal boundaries and troughs passing through. Warm air advection
across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday around the
backside of the surface high and ahead of the cold front should
support mainly light showers. There may also be a few showers
across portions of the Southeast states, but these should be more
scattered and many areas should remain dry.

The exception will be western Washington and Oregon where onshore
flow and terrain enhancement will tend to increase rainfall
prospects across this region, mainly next weekend as the moisture
plume ahead of the Pacific front moves inland. A few inches of
rainfall will be possible for the coastal ranges and the western
slopes of the Cascades. Heavy snow is possible for the highest
mountains inland through the Northwest. However, the rainfall
totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5 period
(Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive rainfall
outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Widespread highs
10-20+ degrees above average are looking likely across the Plains
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week as the ridge
axis builds and a warm front lifts well to the north into southern
Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler conditions are expected
across much of the Western U.S. as a pattern change evolves and an
upper trough develops over the region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Additional Links
 * » Product Archive
 * » Product Info
 * » Day 3-7 Surface Composite
 * » Other Medium Range Products

Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
 
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports


Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.

GEFS Probabilities


Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.

Local Storm Reports


Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.

Extreme Precipitation Monitor


Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.

Ensemble Situational Awareness Table


An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).

*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.

NDFD Forecast Temperature Records


Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
                                                                           
                                                                           
                                                                           

NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal


Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.

Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts


An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.

Weather in Context Prototype


Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.

1/3/6/24-hr Changes


Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).

Experimental HeatRisk


The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts
available out through 7 days.

Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance


Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.

National Blend of Models


Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.

Atmospheric River Portal


A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes.

GEFS Plumes


An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.

SPC Forecast Tools


A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

ECMWF Forecast Charts


Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium
range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.



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