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Board decision
7. 11. 2024


MINUTES OF THE BANK BOARD MEETING ON 7 NOVEMBER 2024

Present at the meeting: Aleš Michl, Jan Frait, Eva Zamrazilová, Tomáš Holub,
Karina Kubelková, Jan Kubíček, Jan Procházka

The meeting opened with a presentation of the seventh situation report and the
new macroeconomic forecast. According to this forecast, inflation would be close
to the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the target at the turn of the
year and would then start to decline gradually towards the 2% target. Consistent
with the baseline scenario of the forecast was a continued decline in short-term
market interest rates initially, followed by broadly stable rates from mid-2025
onwards.

The Bank Board assessed the risks and uncertainties of the outlook for the
fulfilment of the inflation target as modestly inflationary overall.
Higher-than-expected inertia in services inflation was an inflationary risk.
Potential excessive growth in total public sector spending would lead to a risk
of the state budget having an inflationary effect. Increased wage demands in the
private and public sector were an additional upside risk. An inflationary risk
in the longer term was a potential acceleration of money creation in the economy
stemming from a significant recovery in lending activity, especially on the
property market. By contrast, a downturn in global economic activity and weaker
German – and hence Czech – economic output were a significant downside risk to
inflation. This was also reflected in the outlook for further rate cuts by major
central banks.

In the Board’s discussion about the present and future monetary policy stance,
Aleš Michl pointed out that the Monetary Department had increased the inflation
forecast. This showed that the Board’s hawkish communication to date had been
right. According to Aleš Michl, there was therefore a need to approach future
monetary policy easing with great caution and, if appropriate, to pause the
interest rate reduction process. Eva Zamrazilová agreed, saying that the new
forecast even saw inflation rising slightly above the upper boundary of the
tolerance band in the coming months, and that a potential correction of volatile
price items could not be relied on. She therefore felt it was important to take
a cautious approach to monetary policy decision-making and to keep monetary
policy tight for longer. Jan Frait similarly argued that inflation expectations
could start to deviate above 2% because of a long-term overshooting of the
target. In his opinion, public concerns about inflation rising in the future
might also partly explain the renewed growth in house prices, even though these
concerns probably stemmed more from high government budget deficits than from
monetary policy. By contrast, Tomáš Holub said that the new forecast did not
cast doubt on the fulfilment of the 2% target at the monetary policy horizon and
meanwhile assumed that the two-week repo rate would be 0.75 percentage point
lower than its current level in the first quarter of next year. Moreover, had
the forecast not contained an expert adjustment in the form of a reduction of
the decline in foreign interest rates relative to their market outlook, it would
have implied an even larger decline in domestic interest rates. In this regard,
Jan Kubíček noted that the Monetary Department’s autumn 2023 forecast had
assumed that interest rates would be 0.75 percentage point lower on average
compared with the tighter monetary policy actually implemented by the Board. In
retrospect, given the still unfinished process of disinflation, with even core
inflation not heading towards the 2% target but staying above it throughout next
year, this tighter monetary policy had proved to be right. This experience, in
his view, also cast a shadow of a doubt on the currently reduced interest rate
forecast. Eva Zamrazilová additionally pointed out that the new inflation
forecast was above the 2% target until mid-2026, a year longer than predicted by
the previous forecast.

The board members nonetheless agreed that monetary policy was still fairly
restrictive. Most of them therefore saw room for a further cautious interest
rate cut. Jan Frait noted that lowering the two-week repo rate by 0.25
percentage point to 4% could be regarded as a safe step. Given the shape of the
yield curve as well, it would not give rise to credit growth or to overly
optimistic expectations with a major positive impact on consumption. In the
opinion of Karina Kubelková, easing monetary policy by this amount would not
lead to growth in systemic risks and hence did not pose a risk to financial
stability. Real interest rates in the Czech Republic would remain positive and
would be higher than in the previous decade, motivating people to save. She and
Jan Kubíček also said that the decline in interest rates towards their monetary
policy neutral level was gradually reducing the space to cut rates much further.
According to Jan Procházka, however, this could raise questions as to whether it
made sense in today’s world, which was quite a long way from its steady state,
to cling to the level of rates considered neutral. Tomáš Holub argued that an
even more forceful rate cut than 0.25 percentage point could be justified on the
basis of the forecast and the associated risks.

In the next part of the debate on monetary conditions, the Board focused on the
exchange rate, which, according to the new forecast, would stop appreciating.
Eva Zamrazilová felt that the markedly weaker koruna exchange rate than in the
previous forecast – despite being due partly to a reduction of the assumed
equilibrium real appreciation rate in the core forecasting model – was
sufficient grounds for putting the rate-cutting process on hold. Jan Frait noted
that it would remain very difficult to achieve the 2% inflation target without
nominal appreciation, given the current tight labour market. In this context,
Eva Zamrazilová and Jan Kubíček pointed out that the combination of the interest
rate path and the exchange rate forecast would lead to expansionary monetary
policy as early as the second quarter of next year, mainly due to the exchange
rate component of the monetary conditions index. Given the strength of the
upside risks to inflation, this was a reason for caution. Jan Kubíček added that
in the new forecast, the koruna exchange rate at the end of 2025 was around 6%
weaker than the forecast had implied a year ago, and almost 4% weaker than
analysts were currently expecting.

The Board also discussed prices in more depth. Elevated inflation in the
services sector was repeatedly identified as an inflationary factor. According
to Jan Procházka, this would lead at the very least to inflation hitting the
upper boundary of the tolerance band more often, because of swings in volatile
items of the consumer basket. In his view, the Board could not rely on rising
food prices being at least partially offset by falling fuel prices, which have a
substantially smaller weight in the consumer basket. Tomáš Holub added that the
rise in food prices was due to only a few commodities, which could undergo a
rapid reversal, whereas the majority of foods with a higher weight in the
consumer basket were not seeing major changes. Karina Kubelková noted that the
volatility of food prices meant they could also surprise to the downside. The
Board agreed that the growth in house prices was an upside risk to inflation.
According to Eva Zamrazilová, it was passing through to the consumer price index
through various channels and could be a signal of future inflation pressures in
other price categories. 

According to the board members, worse sentiment in the foreign and domestic
economy, which should have a negative impact on consumption and investment,
would conversely have an anti-inflationary effect. In the domestic economy,
Tomáš Holub and Jan Procházka mentioned the substantial decrease in the wage
growth outlook compared with the previous forecast for the end of this year.
This reflected weaker observed data, especially from industry. According to
leading indicators and survey results, this trend was set to continue into next
year. A majority of the board members identified slowing performance or a longer
stagnation of the German economy as a significant downside risk to inflation
from the external environment. It could lead to further downward pressure on ECB
rates and hence also domestic rates. According to Jan Frait, doubts about the
economic model of European industrial countries would keep the saving rate
higher for longer. By contrast, Eva Zamrazilová said that the weaker performance
of the German economy reflects a combination of not only cyclical negative
demand factors, but also deglobalisation structural negative supply factors of
an inflationary nature, which may be inflation-neutral overall. According to Jan
Kubíček, the persisting inflation in services – despite lower wage growth and
weaker demand – demonstrated that the present inflation might have a different
nature and persistence than we are able to model. According to Tomáš Holub, on
the other hand, the risk of persistence of services prices was receding, as the
growth in these prices was no longer as broad-based as it had been and would be
favourably affected by slowing wage growth.

At its meeting, the Bank Board lowered the two-week repo rate by 0.25 percentage
point to 4.0%. At the same time, it lowered the discount rate by the same amount
to 3.0% and the Lombard rate to 5.0%. Five members voted in favour of this
decision: Aleš Michl, Jan Frait, Karina Kubelková, Jan Kubíček and Jan
Procházka. Eva Zamrazilová voted for leaving rates unchanged. Tomáš Holub voted
for lowering rates by 0.50 percentage point. 

Author of the minutes: Martin Motl, Monetary Department

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