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 * About
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SEE THE FUTURE SOONER

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Superforecasting

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A QUICK PEEK AT WHAT THE SUPERFORECASTERS ARE SAYING TODAY…



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forecasts
plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.

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WHO ARE THE SUPERFORECASTERS?

Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research
funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip
Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the
undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that
Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access
to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers
co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and
clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.



 

WHY ARE SUPERFORECASTERS SO ACCURATE?

That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10
Downing Street. Read more >>


WHO WE SERVE

The world’s most innovative organizations turn to Good Judgment to get early
insight on pivotal questions about the future.

 * FINANCIAL SERVICES
   
   Financial services firms succeed when they foresee risks and
   opportunities before they are priced into the market. Superforecasting helps
   these firms make smart bets on consumer trends, regulatory developments, and
   geopolitical shifts that the less-informed crowd has yet to recognize. See
   how our Covid vaccine Superforecasts anticipated financial markets.

 * ENERGY
   
   Energy companies rely on forecasts to decide which resources to develop,
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   providers quantify geopolitical and regulatory risks so that the firms can
   build decision models that take account of more than just engineering and
   economic data. Read about a Wharton collaboration with Good Judgment to
   forecast electric-vehicle innovations.

 * GOVERNMENT
   
   Policymakers and military leaders leverage Superforecasting to anticipate
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   forecasts allow strategists to “get it righter, faster.” Our partnership with
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 * NGOS & NONPROFITS
   
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   forecast where the need will be greatest. Superforecasting accelerates
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   Good Judgment to anticipate climate-related risks.

See our Case Studies for additional examples of organizations using
Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better
decisions.


PRESS & INSIGHTS



 * WHAT THE “SUPERFORECASTERS” PREDICT FOR MAJOR EVENTS IN 2024
   
   The World Ahead 2024, The Economist (November 2023)
   
   Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s
   Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts for The
   Economist’s forward-looking publication, The World Ahead 2024. Their
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   conflict hotspots in the coming year. Superforecasters received full marks
   for accuracy for their 2023 forecasts published at the end of last year.
   
   Read More

 * HOW TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC FORECASTING
   
   Financial Times (August 2023)
   
   Nicholas Gruen writes in the Financial Times that better economic forecasting
   is possible and cites our Superforecasting the Fed paper.
   
   Read More

 * PETER COY: “A BETTER FORECAST OF INTEREST RATES”
   
   New York Times (June 2023)
   
   NYT’s Peter Coy writes, “Fed watchers on Wall Street have had a bad past few
   months. […] Good Judgment Inc., a private forecasting outfit, calculates that
   its […] superforecasters […] were more accurate in two respects: closer to
   the mark and with less variability.”
   
   Read More


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goodjudgment.com Open in urlscan Pro 2606:4700:20::681a:bd8 Public Scan

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