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Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine and has become "a
bit of a pariah around the world," President Joe Biden said Wednesday.

Biden said it is "hard to tell" how much Putin has been weakened by Yevgeny
Prigozhin's ambitious but ill-fated coup attempt. Some experts, however, say
last week's chaotic insurgency stands as the greatest challenge yet to almost a
quarter-century of Putin's authoritarian rule.

Mary Kate Schneider, director of global studies at Loyola University Maryland,
told USA TODAY that even in failure, Prigozhin's coup attempt constitutes the
single greatest challenge to Putin's authority in his 23-year reign. Prigozhin
revealed "fissures in Putin's armor" that can be exploited by other challengers,
she said. And Prigozhin's warm reception during his brief march could encourage
those dissenters.




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"It doesn't matter that Prigozhin and his soldiers did not reach Moscow, and in
the long run it doesn't even matter why he stopped short of Moscow," Schneider
said. "What matters is that Putin blinked."

Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at Global Guardian − an international
security firm with boots on the ground in Ukraine − said Putin's "monopoly on
violence in Russia is over." Putin's power, Faintuch said, was derived from his
ability to control the "underbosses" of Russia.

"What is clear is that we are now witnessing the final act of Putin's reign, and
possibly even that of the modern Russian state," Faintuch told USA TODAY. "We’ve
all seen gangster movies when the don shows weakness, and we all know what
happens next. That said, it is still far too soon to predict Putin's imminent
fall."

Developments:

∎ Ukrainian forces advanced almost a mile in various sectors of the front line
Tuesday, Ukrainian Eastern Command spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi said.
Ukrainian authorities claim they have taken back more than half the land seized
by Russia in the early months of the war.

∎ NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday he has called a meeting
of senior officials from Turkey, Sweden, and Finland on July 6 to try to
overcome Turkish objections to Sweden joining the military alliance.

∎ Lithuania will send 10 more armored vehicles to Ukraine, bringing the total to
72, Lithuania's Defense Minister Avrydas Anusauskas announced.

∎ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on Telegram that Russian
occupying forces in Kherson province have turned impounded buildings into
warehouses for looted goods and locations to dismantle stolen cars to sell their
parts in Russia.




Attack on restaurant: 4 dead, 47 injured after Russian missiles hit busy
Ukrainian pizza restaurant




ARREST MADE IN DEADLY RUSSIAN MISSILE ATTACK ON RESTAURANT

Ukrainian authorities said Wednesday they have detained an agent linked to the
missile attack that killed at least 11 people and wounded at least 61 others in
a crowded pizza restaurant in the eastern city of Kramatorsk. Vasyl Maliuk, head
of the Secret Service of Ukraine, issued a statement saying the agent was a
spotter who informed Russia about the crowds at the restaurant and "adjusted the
enemy’s missile strike."




President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the agent faces treason charges. "The
possible punishment is life imprisonment,'' Zelenskyy said in his nightly video
address. "Accomplices of a terrorist state must be treated as betrayers of
humanity.''

The dead included 14-year-old sisters, the city council said on Telegram.
Zelenskyy initially said Russia "brutally attacked Kramatorsk with S-300
missiles," which were designed for anti-aircraft defense and have been
repurposed to attack land targets in Ukraine, but the National Police later said
Iskander short-range ballistic missiles were used.

As it has throughout the war against mounting evidence, the Kremlin denied
striking civilian targets.




WSJ: PRIGOZHIN HOPED TO CAPTURE RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERS

The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed Western officials, reported Wednesday
that Prigozhin had planned to seize high-ranking Russian military leaders but
that he was forced to accelerate his plans after the country’s domestic
intelligence agency became aware of the plot. The "premature launch" of the
insurrection may have led to its demise, the Journal said.



Prigozhin had intended to capture Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery
Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, during a planned visit to a southern
region that borders Ukraine, the Journal reported. But Russia's Federal Security
Service, or FSB, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed,
the officials said. Gen. Viktor Zolotov, commander of the National Guard of
Russia, also said authorities knew about Prigozhin’s intentions before he
launched his attempt.

The Western sources told the Journal it appeared Prigozhin hoped to draw support
from factions of the Russian military. The ease with which Wagner’s troops
pushed forward in the early hours of the coup suggests that some regular forces
commanders could have been part of the plot, according to Western intelligence.

Those military leaders may have included a senior general who had been the top
Russian commander in Ukraine and other lower-ranked generals, the New York Times
reported, citing U.S. officials. The newspaper said the senior general, Sergei
Surovikin, knew about the plot ahead of time, but it's not clear whether he
supported it. The Times also said Surovikin has not been seen publicly since
Saturday.




UKRAINE EXPECTS GUARANTEE TO JOIN NATO

Ukraine has met the three key prerequisites for NATO membership and deserves a
guaranteed invite to join the military alliance when the war with Russia ends,
Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Wednesday. Reznikov told The
Guardian that Ukraine has proved it can function with NATO forces, has a
transparent procurement system and has civilian control of the military.
Reznikov said it is in the alliance's interest to fortify its eastern flank −
and that NATO should issue a membership guarantee at its meeting next month in
Lithuania.

"Ukraine is already serving as a protective shield for NATO’s eastern European
members," Reznikov said. "If this shield cracks, the next victims of Russian
aggression could be the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary or Slovakia."




IS PUTIN TRYING TO DESTROY COUP LEADER PRIGOZHIN?

Putin apparently is trying to present Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy
his reputation among his Wagner Group personnel and within Russian society, a
Washington-based think tank says in its latest assessment of the war. The
Kremlin has pledged not to charge Prigozhin with crimes related to the coup. But
Putin in recent days has implied that Prigozhin lied when he complained about
lack of state compensation for Wagner and that Prigozhin had made a fortune off
his military-related Concord Company.

"Putin’s insinuation that the Kremlin will investigate the Concord Company may
be preparation to justify the Kremlin’s confiscation of Prigozhin’s assets via
corruption charges," the Institute for the Study of War assessment says, adding
that "Putin has likely decided that he cannot directly eliminate Prigozhin
without making him a martyr at this time."




PUTIN CONVINCED HE CAN OUTLAST UKRAINE AND ITS ALLIES, BLINKEN SAYS

A peace envoy sent by Pope Francis was scheduled to meet with a Putin aide
Wednesday, less than two weeks after a delegation of African leaders came away
empty-handed in their attempt to mediate an end to the war.

The pope's representative, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, may not be any more
successful if U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is right in his assessment
of Putin's strategy.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, Blinken said the biggest obstacle
to peace talks is Putin's belief that he can outlast Ukraine and the countries
supporting its resistance.

“The more we are able to disabuse him of that notion, the more likely it is that
at some point he’ll come to the table,” Blinken said.




SWISS BLOCK TRANSFER OF 96 LEOPARD TANKS BOUND FOR UKRAINE

The Swiss government, citing neutrality laws, shut down a plan Wednesday to ship
almost 100 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The tanks are stored in Italy in
"unserviceable condition" but were designated for transport to Germany before
being sent to Ukraine as military aid. Switzerland's Federal Council issued a
statement saying it "came to the conclusion that the sale of 96 tanks is not
possible" because it would contradict the law on military equipment. Earlier
this month, Switzerland's National Assembly approved the sale of tanks despite
strict export restrictions on weaponry.

Last week, Switzerland announced a humanitarian aid package worth more than $1.3
million for demining activities in Ukraine.

Contributing: Francesca Chambers


Full screen


1 of 78 Photos in Gallery©USA TODAY




Warning: This gallery contains graphic images


This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Final act of Putin's reign':
Details of chaotic Russian coup emerging. Live updates




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 * Wagner's aborted rebellion in Russia over the weekend was a chaotic mess that
   ultimately failed.
 * It didn't make much sense that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would stage an
   uprising that way.
 * Two reports since — from the NYT and WSJ — suggest Prigozhin had a better
   plan but couldn't enact it.

Full screen


1 of 8 Photos in Gallery©Pavel Golovkin/AP, Alexei Nikolsky/AP, Murat Kula/Getty
Images, Getty Images, Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images, Ludovic Marin/Getty Images,
Ricki Lee/Insider


PUTIN IS FACING AN UNPRECEDENTED ARMED REBELLION LED BY RUSSIA'S WAGNER GROUP
LEADER. THESE ARE THE 7 KEY PLAYERS IN THE CRISIS.

 * Vladimir Putin is facing an unprecedented armed rebellion from Russia's
   Wagner Group leader.
 * Russia's war in Ukraine has led to infighting among several of the country's
   key players.
 * These are the seven people you need to know.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing an unprecedented armed rebellion from
Russia's Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, his former close ally.

Fighters from the mercenary group entered Russian from occupied Ukraine on
Saturday and claimed to take control of several military sites.

The Russian president called the apparent mutiny a "betrayal" and vowed Russia
would defend itself and mutineers would be punished.

The events are a dramatic escalation in an ongoing feud between Prigozhin, the
leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, and Russian military leadership.

The war in Ukraine has also exposed complex relationships and jostling rivalries
between some of Russia's key players, which include army generals, politicians,
and warlords.

This is everything you need to know about the most influential people of Putin's
inner circle.

See More


What the hell just happened?

That's the question anybody following the chaotic attempt by the Wagner
mercenary group to stage a rebellion in Russia last weekend probably asked
themselves.

In a messy blur, as many as 25,000 men led by Yevgeny Prigozhin upped sticks
from their bases and turned their guns on the motherland.

They took the militarily crucial city of Rostov-on-Don with hardly a shot fired,
then stormed up the highway towards Moscow, taking down planes and helicopters
sent by the Russian army for good measure.

And then — they turned around and gave up? Prigozhin bailed on his plan, sent
everyone home, and headed off to some kind of retirement in Belarus.

According to the Kremlin's official narrative, the catalyst for the climbdown
was an intervention by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.




Lukashenko said his secret was dropping a whole series of f-bombs (and worse) to
persuade Prigozhin that the Russian military was strong enough to crush him —
something he surely knew already.




But now — thanks to reporting over the past few days — we have another idea of
what may have happened.

Yesterday, The New York Times fleshed out an idea widely held by
Russia-watchers: that Prigozhin hoped the regular Russian army would rise up
alongside him.

The soldiers wouldn't need to look far for a motive: widespread hatred for
defense minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov.

Per The Times, a senior Russian general with a notable grudge against the two in
particular may have been in on the plot.




Citing US intelligence officials, The Times said that Sergei Surovikin — top dog
in Russia's invasion of Ukraine until he got demoted by Shoigu in favor of
Gerasimov — was in on it.



Its report said Surovikin knew about the rebellion and helped plan it. But when
things kicked off, Surovikin choked and did nothing other than post a video
telling Wagner fighters to give up.

A second major report may explain why. The Wall Street Journal reported on
Wednesday that Prigozhin actually had a totally different, and better, plan than
what he ended up doing.

The Journal — again citing US officials — said Prigozhin had wanted to wait
longer to rise up, until Gerasimov and Shoigu were physically in Rostov-on-Don
where Wagner's men could take them hostage.

That would have given them huge leverage without the need to embark on a
650-mile suicide mission to Moscow, where heavy resistance would likely await.

Per The Journal, Prigozhin never got to do that because his plan leaked and the
visit was moved back.

Knowing Putin was on to him, per this new narrative, Prigozhin instead did the
best he could at short notice.

If that is true, he may well have been happy to take Lukashenko's off-ramp once
it became clear that it wasn't a trap, at least in the short term.

There are, of course, a thousand other potential explanations, and we may never
know the truth.

But I am totally prepared to believe that what we saw over the weekend was
pretty much what it looked like — a heavily-armed clown show being run by the
seat of its leader's pants.




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