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Market Intelligence Research
Dec 12, 2024
RAPIDLY SHRINKING CITIZENS PROPERTY PROJECTS LARGEST FULL-YEAR UNDERWRITING LOSS
Research — Dec 12, 2024 Rapidly shrinking Citizens Property projects largest
full-year underwriting loss By Tim Zawacki Florida's residential and commercial
property insurer of last resort on Dec. 4 will present a 2025 operating budget
that suggests considerable progress toward shrinking its overall exposure, but
not before its 2024 financial results show a significant impact from several
landfall-making hurricanes. Policies in force and premium writings surged at
Citizens Property Insurance Corp. in recent years due to a range of factors that
included an inhospitable legal environment, tight reinsurance market capacity,
statutory limitations on its ability to raise rates and reticence among private
carriers to increase their property insurance writings in the volatile Florida
market. Thanks to various legislative reforms and the resulting recent success
of depopulation initiatives, Citizens' policy count plunged by 17.9% in October,
and it is poised to drop below 1 million for the first time at a month's end
since July 2022. By year-end 2025, the Citizens budget contemplates that
policies in force will drop to 770,819, which would mark a four-year low and a
decline of 45.2% from a cyclical peak count of more than 1.4 million policies as
of Sept. 30, 2023. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck Florida in
September and October, respectively, served as a reminder of the risks
associated with a state-operated insurer that is projected to generate $4.65
billion in direct premiums written in the homeowners, fire and allied lines in
2024. The new Citizens budget projects a net underwriting loss of nearly $2.53
billion for the calendar year as compared with a $466.5 million profit in 2023
and a $2.45 billion loss in 2022 when Hurricane Ian hit Florida. The 2022 result
stood as Citizens' largest net underwriting loss on an absolute basis since its
2002 formation unadjusted for inflation, though it was smaller relative to the
company's premium writings than billion-dollar underwriting losses produced in
the especially severe hurricane years of 2004, 2005 and 2017. The smaller
Citizens would still face material risks, according to probable maximum loss
scenarios displayed in the budget document. A one-in-100-year storm would
threaten to wipe out the company's surplus while a one-in-25-year storm could
send it to a net loss of more than $2 billion for what would be the third time
in a four-year span. As always, Florida's fate will depend on how the wind blows
next hurricane season. Citizens' Florida market share in the combination of the
homeowners, fire and allied lines spiked to a decadal high of 18.8% based on
2023 direct premiums written (note that this statistic is based on the fire and
allied lines on stand-alone bases as opposed to S&P Global Market Intelligence's
consolidation, which incorporates various other related lines). With the
company's overall size in 2024 falling well short of levels it projected a year
ago, we would anticipate Citizens' lead in those business lines over private
carriers to narrow considerably by 2025 from the 13-percentage-point spread it
maintained over second-place Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. in 2023. Other
leading private carriers in those lines include State Farm Florida Insurance
Co., Tower Hill Insurance Exchange, Florida Peninsula Insurance Co., First
Protective Insurance Co., Chubb Ltd., The Progressive Corp., Slide Insurance Co.
and the group led by United Services Automobile Association. Momentum in
depopulation initiatives represents a key driver of Citizens' contraction.
Through the first 10 months of 2024, according to data presented by the company
on Dec. 3, private carriers assumed 371,295 policies, representing combined
exposure of $170.4 billion, up from 270,751 policies and $111.3 billion in
exposure for all of 2023. Citizens forecast a full-year 2024 tally of 490,513
policies and $225.2 billion in exposure removed, including rounds of
depopulation in November and December. Slide, American Integrity Insurance Co.
of Florida Inc. and Florida Peninsula have been the most active participants in
the 2024 depopulation, combining to account for 59.4% of the policies removed
through October. Most of that activity stemmed from Citizens' Oct. 22
depopulation round where private carriers took out a total of 237,323 policies.
The 2025 budget calls for the depopulation tally to decline by 39.6% to 296,024
policies, but Citizens expects other factors to contribute to a net decline in
policy count. It has budgeted for the number of new policies written to fall to
276,000 in 2025 from 369,000 in 2024 and for renewals to tumble to 751,000
policies from just over 1 million. Ultimately, Citizens has budgeted for its
total exposure to fall to $326.38 billion by the end of 2025 from $533.23
billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, around the time that Helene and Milton made
landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast. In a review of third-quarter results, Citizens
attributed ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) of $67.9 million
to August's Hurricane Debby and $426.6 million to Helene. A comparison of the
company's projected full-year 2024 net losses and LAE with its actual result
through the first nine months of the year implies that Hurricane Milton will be
significantly more costly. The full-year projection of $4.95 billion in net
losses and LAE implies that $3.31 billion will hit the books in the fourth
quarter. Citizens absorbed $2.47 billion in net incurred losses and LAE from
Hurricane Ian, but its impact came against a smaller book of business as
measured by written and earned premiums. Citizens' projected 2024 net premiums
earned of $3.11 billion, for example, would be 64.0% greater than its 2022 tally
while its projected 2024 losses and LAE would be 27.5% higher. Citizens has
budgeted for net premiums earned of $2.29 billion, losses and LAE of $1.14
billion and year-end policyholders' surplus of $3.72 billion in 2025. The latter
two figures will depend heavily on the severity of hurricane season.. Gain
access to our full news & research coverage and the industry-specific data that
informs our insights This article was published by S&P Global Market
Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed
division of S&P Global.
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