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TRENDING NOW | Sister of Escaped Prisoner Danelo Cavalcante Has Been Arrested
and Faces Deportation, Police Say


AMERICANS ARE BLEAKER ABOUT LOSING THEIR JOB JUST AS MORE STRUGGLE TO BORROW
MONEY


BANKS ARE MORE AND MORE DISCRIMINATING ABOUT WHO THEY LEND TO

Published |Updated
Helen Reis
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U.S. households haven’t put the odds of losing their job this high since April
2021. SDI Productions/Getty Images

It’s a worrisome combination: Job loss expectations are up sharply and almost
60% of U.S. households are finding it tougher to borrow money — the biggest
share in at least a decade, a monthly survey by Federal Reserve economists
shows. 

Heads of household surveyed in August gave the chance of losing their jobs in
the next 12 months a median probability of 13.8% — the worst odds in over two
years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data said
Monday. In July, it was 11.8%, and in August of 2022, 11.1%.

At the same time, 59.8% of those surveyed said it’s generally harder to get
credit now than it was 12 months ago, whether through credit cards, auto loans,
student loans, or mortgages. That's a record for the 10 years the NY Fed has
been collecting the monthly data and compares to 58.1% who said as much in July
and as little as 24% who answered that way prior to the pandemic in 2020.



Feeling uncertain about job security is never ideal, but not being able to
borrow money would make getting let go that much worse. Loans are often a
lifeline when someone loses their income, but banks have become more wary of who
they lend to and how much they loan out as a shaky economy raises concerns they
won’t be repaid.

In addition to tighter lending standards, consumers have been coping with a
steep increase in borrowing costs over the past year and a half. And one way or
the other, making loans less accessible to the consumer — the engine of the U.S.
economy — could tip the country into recession, some fear. That's precisely why
many have been skeptical that the central bank could raise its benchmark
interest rate just enough to stifle inflation but not enough to damage the
economy.

The percentage of households that anticipated it would get harder to borrow over
the next 12 months also got worse between July and August, rising to 52.7% from
50%.



The monthly internet-based survey is nationally representative and relies on a
rotating panel of approximately 1,300 heads of household. Respondents are
included in the panel for up to 12 months, with some rotating in and out each
month.

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