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Submitted URL: https://events-c.mb.moneymorninglive.com/web-only/z/nxl5oftma?uid=f9a22c97-a388-41b7-89b4-5ae4357cc040&mid=9d59f2a3-8b96-4915-95da-d553e9...
Effective URL: https://moneymorning.com/investing/you-need-to-be-aware-of-whats-bubbling-in-housing/?bsft_aaid=09f02da4-16a1-47d4-ad98-a...
Submission: On April 13 via api from BE — Scanned from DE
Effective URL: https://moneymorning.com/investing/you-need-to-be-aware-of-whats-bubbling-in-housing/?bsft_aaid=09f02da4-16a1-47d4-ad98-a...
Submission: On April 13 via api from BE — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 7 forms found in the DOM
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class="sr-only">Share on Gmail</span> |
<a rel="noindex,nofollow" class="modal-btn fab fa-yahoo" href="#close" onclick="MyPopUpWin('http://compose.mail.yahoo.com/?body=https://moneymorning.com/?p=1212733', 860, 550); mm_ss_ga_events('email-modal', 'yahoo-mail');" title="Share on Yahoo" aria-hidden="true">ahoo</a><span
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<span id="subject-field">You Need to be Aware of What's Bubbling in Housing</span>
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This expert insight from Chris Johnson originally ran in on April 12, 2023
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Chris Johnson
I got a text from my realtor yesterday.
Now, before I go any further, that's not a common occurrence - it's not like we
link up every Tuesday and play gin rummy.
The subject of that text was - surprise, surprise - my house.
First thing's first, I am not currently looking to sell. But, according to him,
I should be.
Apparently, houses in my neighborhood are flying off the market, and homebuyers
are chomping at the bit to secure a property.
Well, a deeper dig starts to reveal why...
Anecdotally, I'm walking around my neighborhood and seeing "For Sale" signs
posted and taken down within a matter of days.
Ultimately, all of this tells me something that headlines - like the one from
Yahoo! Finance below - are starting to reinforce...
Despite the broader economy finding itself on an unsure footing in the wake of
the banking crisis, it appears the housing market is starting to beat to a
different drum.
So, with the mortgage rates sliding - 30-year fixed rates dropped for a fourth
straight week, according to Freddie Mac - we're seeing people be driven back
toward buying homes and away from renting.
Of course, with all of that said, it's not hard to find at least one group
that's quite happy right now...
That's right, our old friends the homebuilders. The below chart illustrates just
that...
As you can see, we're not quite at the point where the majority of homebuilders
are optimistic, but we're on that trajectory.
But this makes sense to me - with the inventory shortage, decreasing interest
rates, and, most importantly, commodity prices being knocked down, homebuilders
are once again making margins on their projects.
Well, that's all fine and well, but I know you're not reading this and going,
"Great, it's time for me to become a homebuilder."
Thankfully, this is actionable for traders, and I've got a specific plan.
But before we touch on that, it's important that we touch on the differences
between the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and the iShares US Home Construction
ETF (ITB).
In the XHB, you've got your homebuilders from the SPDR.
Right now, it's been moving sideways for the past three months, and it's
currently beneath its 50-day moving average (MA50).
Well, the reason for that is pretty simple - and we needn't look any further
than SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).
But CJ, what does retail have to do with homebuilders?
When you look at the weighting of the XHB, there are traditional homebuilders
like DR Horton Inc (DHI). But that's not the only thing in that ETF - there are
also companies like Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) and Home Depot Inc (HD).
Sure, these companies have a contractor window and do orders where they'll drop
supplies on your worksite. But let's not kid ourselves - the majority of those
two companies' business comes from you and me walking into the store on a
Saturday morning to buy lord knows what.
Heck, even Williams-Sonoma …
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Week:
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Morning and occasional special offers from Money Map Press and our affiliates.
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privacy policy .
Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…
Chris Johnson
About the Author
Browse Chris's articles | View Chris's research services
Chris Johnson is a highly regarded equity and options analyst who has spent much
of his nearly 30-year market career designing and interpreting complex models to
help investment firms transform millions of data points into impressive gains
for clients.
At heart Chris is a quant - like the "rocket scientists" of investing - with a
specialty in applying advanced mathematics like stochastic calculus, linear
algebra, differential equations, and statistics to Wall Street's data-rich
environment.
He began building his proprietary models in 1998, analyzing about 2,000 records
per day. Today, that database, which Chris designed and coded from scratch,
analyzes a staggering 700,000 records per day. It's the secret behind his track
record.
Chris holds degrees in finance, statistics, and accounting. He worked as a
licensed broker for 11 years before taking on the role of Director of
Quantitative Analysis at a big-name equity and options research firm for eight
years. He recently served as Director of Research of a Cleveland-based
investment firm responsible for hundreds of millions in AUM. He is also the
Founder/CIO of ETF Advisory Research Partners since 2007, noted for its
groundbreaking work in Behavioral Valuation systems. Their research is widely
read by leaders in the RIA business.
Chris is ranked in the top 99.3% of financial bloggers and top 98.6% of overall
experts by TipRanks, the track record registry of financial analysts dating back
to January 2009.
He is a frequent commentator on financial markets for CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg TV,
and CBS Radio and has been featured in Barron's, USA Today, Newsweek, and The
Wall Street Journal, and numerous books.
Today, Chris is the editor of Night Trader and Penny Hawk. He also contributes
to Money Morning as the Quant Analysis Specialist.
… Read full bio
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