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TRENDING: EURUSD| GBPUSD| XAUUSD| AUDUSD| USDCAD

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FOREX TODAY: FOCUS TURNS TO INFLATION DATA AFTER DOLLAR’S REBOUND

NEWS | 11/10/2023 18:44:57 GMT | By Matías Salord


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The key report for the week will be on Tuesday with the US Consumer Price Index.
Additionally, more US inflation data is scheduled for Wednesday with the
Producer Price Index. The Eurozone will report GDP growth, and the UK will
release employment and inflation data. Australia will also release jobs data.
The bond market and geopolitics will continue to be important factors
influencing the market.

Here is what you need to know for next week: 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose during the five days of the week, but it was not
enough to completely erase last week's losses. A correction and Powell's
comments helped the Greenback, which was not affected by signs of gradual
loosening in the labor market. With the US economy outperforming the Euro area,
the slide of the US Dollar is poised to be limited. The DXY climbed from
six-week lows under 105.00 towards 106.00.



Next week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price
Index (PPI) on Wednesday will be closely watched. A surprise here has the
potential to be a game changer.

The bond market will remain in focus. A weak 30-year Treasury auction triggered
sharp moves, as did Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments. The rebound in
yields could signal the end of the bond rally that started in October.

European Central Bank (ECB) officials offered different perspectives on the
future. In the near term, the ECB is not expected to raise rates further, and
the debate is about when they will start cutting rates amid a negative economic
outlook. Eurostat will release employment and growth data on Tuesday.

EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.0700 and pulled back, finding support above
1.0650. The pair offers mixed signals. The upside faces a strong barrier around
1.0800, which includes the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The Pound was affected by dovish comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials.
Growth data from the third quarter came in above expectations, but only to shows
the economy stagnating. Next week, the UK will report employment on Tuesday and
inflation on Wednesday. These numbers will be critical ahead of the next BoE
meeting on December 14. GBP/USD retreated to the 20-day SMA around the 1.2200
area, which is a crucial support. A break lower would clear the way for more
losses. EUR/GBP posted the highest weekly close since April, around 0.8735.

USD/JPY rose above 151.50 and posted the highest weekly close since 1990. The
pair trades at levels compatible with intervention from Japanese authorities.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points, but
it was a dovish hike as it signaled that the tightening cycle is over and
weighed on the Australian Dollar. Australian yields dropped during the week
based on guidance offered by the central bank. On Wednesday, the Q3 Wage Price
Index will be released, followed by the employment report on Thursday. The
Aussie was the worst performer among majors. AUD/USD erased most of last week's
gains, retreating from the 20-week SMA after being unable to hold above the
0.6500 zone.

NZD/USD pulled back from the 20-week SMA to levels below 0.5900. Consolidation
under 0.5850 would expose 2023 lows. The New Zealand Q3 Producer Price Index is
due on Friday.

The Chilean Peso was among the biggest losers during the week, with USD/CLP
rising from 880.00 to 920.00 after the annual inflation rate in Chile dropped to
5%, increasing expectations of more monetary policy easing.

Crude oil prices fell for the third week in a row due to demand concerns. WTI
dropped from above $80.00 and bottomed slightly under $75.00, settling around
$77.50.

Gold experienced a significant decline, losing over $50 during the week and
dropping to $1,934. This drop can be attributed to higher yields and a stronger
Dollar. Similarly, Silver faced resistance around the $23.00 level and
subsequently fell to $22.20, marking its lowest close since early October.

 

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EDITORS’ PICKS


EUR/USD REMAINS PRESSURED AFTER TEPID US DATA

EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday and fluctuates in a narrow band
slightly below 1.0700. US  UoM Consumer Confidence missed expectations,
weakening to 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October. Wall Street trades in the
green after Thursday's slump, weighing US Dollar demand.


EUR/USD News




GBP/USD PIERCES 1.2200 AFTER UK GDP

GBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level early in the American
session. The data from the UK showed that the GDP expanded at an annual rate of
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investors await next week's first-tier figures for direction. 


GBP/USD News




GOLD EXTENDS ITS WEEKLY SLUMP, FLIRTS WITH $1,940

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at fresh four-week lows near $1,940. The bright metal is set to end the week
with substantial losses despite the tepid demand for the US dollar. 


Gold News





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