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Energy & Natural Resources Research & Analysis


FIRST QUARTER 2022 US OIL SUPPLY: ENOUGH RETURNS FOR SHAREHOLDERS, ENOUGH GROWTH
TO MEET DEMAND

03 February 2022 Imre Kugler Narmadha Navaneethan Prescott Roach Reed Olmstead

When it comes to US oil markets, the story of 2022 is not all a mere
continuation of 2021. Here are key highlights from our team's Q1 2022 oil supply
outlook:

US oil production poised to return to previous records. IHS Markit projects US
oil production will surpass 12.6 million b/d by year-end 2022, nearing its
previous all-time high of 12.8 million b/d recorded in 2019. Entry-to-exit
production is expected to rise by more than 850,000 b/d during 2022, driven
almost entirely by output gains in the Permian Basin, Bakken, and deepwater Gulf
of Mexico.

An upturn in drilling activity and upstream spending is well underway. Onshore
Lower-48 rig counts reached nearly 650 in January 2022, up from less than 250 in
mid-2020. IHS Markit expects rig activity will surpass 700 in mid-2022 before
ultimately climbing to 760 by year-end 2023. All told, upstream capex is
projected to reach nearly $100 billion during 2022, up from $67 billion in 2021.

Sustained oil prices above $70/bbl delivers a continued torrent of free cash
flow. US operators are on track to generate a cash surplus of more than $70
billion during 2022. Although this sum is largely in line with 2021 totals,
distribution will disproportionately benefit shareholders in 2022.

Cost inflation dampens an otherwise rosy near-term outlook. Industry
expectations have coalesced around an anticipated 7-10% increase in service
sector cost during 2022, leading to a sharp deterioration in capital efficiency
for most operators.

Above-ground issues pose little immediate risk to US production growth. A host
of issues - in particular, water disposal constraints in the Permian Basin,
supply chain bottlenecks, and federal drilling restrictions - pose potential
challenges for upstream producers, but the worst of these risks have generally
failed to materialize.

Over the longer term, inventory exhaustion is likely to emerge as a mounting
concern. Although drilling inventory within lower-tier acreage remains abundant,
exhaustion of core acreage is likely to emerge within smaller, mature
unconventional plays over the next several years.

Learn more about our plays and basins coverage.

Ask Reed a question about the US supply forecast.

Posted 03 February 2022 by Imre Kugler, Director, Upstream Research, IHS Markit
and

Narmadha Navaneethan, Associate Director, Plays and basins group, IHS Markit and

Prescott Roach, Sr. Analyst, North American Plays & Basins, IHS Markit and

Reed Olmstead, Executive Director, Upstream Research, IHS Markit

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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