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THE MARKET EAR Newsletter Alerts Live Feed Highlights Options Crypto SIGN UP FOR THE FREE NEWSLETTER We spark joy. Try our free newsletter, we don't spam and you can unsubscribe anytime if you don't like it. Notifications are blocked by your browser. Please enable them to receive live relevant coverage from The Market Ear Market alerts are now enabled We'll send you relevant markets coverage in real time Market alerts are now paused To enable them, simply click on the button JOIN THE PREMIUM COMMUNITY THIS IS WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM: * Real-time access to the TME feed that provides market intelligence 24/7 365 days per year * Real-time access to the TME mobile app * The intra-day thematic / trading emails * TME focuses on macro markets through a cross-asset and volatility lens * TME is produced by a team of market professionals, each has +20 years of experience from hedge funds, sell-side and running volatility prop books * Access the content via our partners at Zero Hedge Premium * Join here PREMIUM USERS SIGN IN BELOW Email CancelNext By continuing, you are indicating that you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Bond volatility matters for more than bonds You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 17 minutes ago at 10:00 Even MOVE is moving lower You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 37 minutes ago at 09:40 The puke in correlations You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 09:20 Too damn short You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 20 hours ago at 14:40 As long as it is tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 09:00 SVB = LTCM? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:40 Leaders & Followers You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:20 Q2 bull story? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:00 Stocks don't care about no outflows You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:40 Hedge fund positioning near 5-year lows You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:30 Never forget the size buyer You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:20 Helpful, not hurtful You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:00 2025 baby! You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:40 Hanging on by a Fed Markets are now betting on 2024 seeing bulk of cuts. More Less Source: Credit Suisse Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:30 Q1 summary: positive data You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:20 Q1 summary: easing Financial conditions have eased at the start of 2023... More Less Source: Credit Agricole Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:00 Who loves China the most? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:40 China You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:20 Real M1 as a recession signal You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:00 The money growth horror show You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 04:00 Breaking up according to seasonality Is this the "ultimate" squeeze chart. Seasonality just about to kick in... More Less Source: Equity Clock Link Copied 7 hours ago at 03:00 SPX estimates are too optimistic You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 8 hours ago at 02:00 Yearning for the yield curve "analysis" to work... You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 9 hours ago at 01:00 Is this it in terms of earnings cuts? US estimates in chart 1 vs European estimates in chart 2. More Less Source: BernsteinSource: BernsteinView one more chart Link Copied 10 hours ago at 00:00 Puked just in time for the squeeze Is everybody trading short gamma these days. Non dealers positioning puked just in time for the latest squeeze higher. Impressive... More Less Source: GS Link Copied 11 hours ago at 23:00 IG debt ratios You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 12 hours ago at 22:05 Even MOVE is moving lower You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 37 minutes ago at 09:40 SVB = LTCM? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:40 Breaking up according to seasonality Is this the "ultimate" squeeze chart. Seasonality just about to kick in... More Less Source: Equity Clock Link Copied 7 hours ago at 03:00 Computers could be huge buyers of equities You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 14 hours ago at 20:30 Remember economic surprises? Citi US economic surprises index has basically been printing new recent highs on a daily basis since mid January. You don't trade SPX on the back of the CSI, but that gap still looks very wide... More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied 15 hours ago at 19:20 VIX catching bids You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 18 hours ago at 16:30 The greatest volatility move You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 30 2023 at 12:40 The biggest "delta" matters You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 30 2023 at 11:20 The lack of liquidity will support big moves You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 30 2023 at 10:40 Fading (big tech) fear VXN and Apple "VIX" (VXAPL) in full implosion mode, both trading at/below lowest levels in a very long time. Using options for directional tech plays isn't overly expensive. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 30 2023 at 01:00 Oil - it was just a short cover Note the sharp move higher in the red line. MPAS writes: "CL OI off almost -36k in last 2 sessions and mostly from front end, suspect managed money short position built in last 2 weeks took the hit...." More Less Source: MPAS Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 19:20 and it's gone... You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 15:45 SPX - time to decide You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 09:00 Hedge funds have basically done nothing You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 08:00 Underestimating the risk? TS Lombard's Steve Blitz: "...when recession hits, the damage to spending may be a lot more than most expect and turn the recession into a deeper one than anticipated. There is a still a strong contingent believing no recession at all, but there were a lot of very smart people in spring 2008 who were still arguing no recession was underway. Mid-year recession, Fed begins to cut once unemployment > 4%, and sentiment suggests risk is a worse recession not a milder one. Not yet my call, but that's the risk." More Less Source: TS Lombard Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 07:40 VIX starting to realize SPX is doing nothing You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 03:00 Oil - the chase On March 21 we pointed out the reason why oil could squeeze (hint CTAs, more here). The CTA community has managed getting caught wrong in another short term trade going against them. Trend followers continue struggling and behave like short gamma strategies, but they do not get to enjoy the theta checks...As Goldman's Nocerino points out: there is much more to buy should oil squeeze even further. More Less Source: GS Link Copied Mar 28 2023 at 19:30 Use your skew You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 28 2023 at 15:20 Stubborn credit stress While VIX has given back much of the recent gains, the CDX IG remains at elevated levels post the latest surge. Note the difference in trajectories over the past months. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 28 2023 at 09:45 The real estate long You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 28 2023 at 08:40 Skew stays elevated Skew, measured by the SDEX here, is not high on a historical basis, but is holding up remarkably well post the latest surge. Looks like the crowd is still in need to pay up for downside protection. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 28 2023 at 01:00 NASDAQ and mean reversion You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 27 2023 at 16:20 Rate volatility - the canary? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 27 2023 at 10:20 Europe's stress - far from over You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 27 2023 at 09:00 GS out with an AI "Bible" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 27 2023 at 07:00 GS: buy NKE calls You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 15 2023 at 20:30 Calls attractive You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 13 2023 at 19:10 You got 13 days You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 06 2023 at 07:00 Put hate is gone...and some put love is back You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 14:59 and it's gone You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 13:40 Monetization mania You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 28 2023 at 04:00 Rates matter Jefferies writes: "...the relationship between S&P500 forward PE and US 10Y bond yield has been tight knit since 2022, with an R squared of 53%." Don't forget to look at bond volatility as well. Second chart shows SPX vs MOVE (inverted). More Less Source: JefferiesSource: RefinitivView one more chart Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 13:45 MOVE moving everything You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 12:20 US credit protection has risen as well You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 11:00 Europe's equity vs credit gap You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 27 2023 at 10:00 That was quick - bonds edition You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 26 2023 at 21:00 0DTE puts are the new 0DTE calls Scott Rubner writes: "Month to date, more daily puts were trading than calls." Somebody needs to figure out how to hedge that downside when things get dynamic to the downside... More Less Source: GS Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 21:20 Monetizing hedges You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 18:01 Down but with diminishing "panic" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 17:42 Not the normal VIX Friday You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 14:30 Options color You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 14:10 Credit protection - still resilient You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 11:59 Muted European volatility - the cheap what if hedge? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 24 2023 at 10:35 Watching the MOVE closely VIX down from recent "panic" highs, but MOVE refuses giving back any of the gains. Watch bond volatility closely here as it is a big part of the current macro puzzle. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 21:22 0DTE - buy to sell Great charts via BofA's great derivatives team showing how people start the day with paying up for 0DTE options (lifting offers) only to sell these as the day progresses, hitting bids. The trend can be seen in both calls and puts, with puts being even more pronounced. Zero sum game until something goes wrong...? More Less Source: BofA Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 15:20 Very little "monetization" We have covered the rise in SPX and the rise in SKEW extensively over past weeks (here). When both rise you should watch closely as it shows the crowd is paying up for downside protection (on a relative volatility basis)...because they need it. This protection is usually monetized when markets move lower. This time we have seen very little of that "monetization"... More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Feb 23 2023 at 13:40 They don't come cheap 0DTE options trade with a huge volatility premium. BofA's chart showing the volatility smile "with the call side trading at more elevated implied vols than longer-dated tenors". More Less Source: BofA Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 22:59 0DTE and Volmageddon 2.0? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 22:30 MOVE moving VIX You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 19:20 Sell low, buy high agony is back You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Feb 22 2023 at 16:45 The blockchain bulls are back in town (with disclaimers) You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 30 2023 at 13:00 Unstoppable bitcoin You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 10:00 Mentioning Crypto You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 29 2023 at 05:40 Bitcoin trying to tell us something? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 27 2023 at 15:30 Bitcoin - still waiting for the institutional bid You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 23 2023 at 12:15 Crypto - decoupling begins You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 19:40 Bitcoin has been the leader It led things on the way up. Does it lead to the downside? Short term 1 day 5 min chart showing BTC and SPX. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 19:30 Follow bitcoin You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 22 2023 at 15:20 Bitcoin - does anyone care? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 16 2023 at 18:20 The winner continues winning You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 14 2023 at 13:00 Not everything is pricing fear You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 13 2023 at 14:12 Bitcoin discounting "happy days" You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 12 2023 at 19:04 Bitcoin - will we ever see the institutional bid? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Mar 02 2023 at 04:00 BTC tracking the 17/18 cycle BTC price action generally tracks the 2017/18 cycle, but trading volumes are low, and crypto company credit risks remain. Morgan Stanley's ETH PAVA speculative indicator has reached an extreme high. More Less Source: Morgan Stanley Link Copied Jan 18 2023 at 19:20 Crypto - suddenly not so boring You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied Jan 15 2023 at 11:30 A crypto doughnut Early in the month, and now we have a rally...but could crypto funding in the month of January actually register a big fat zero? Like some (many) ECM bonuses... More Less Source: JPM Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:46 Bitcoin volatility More of the spot up, vol up behavior for forgotten Bitcoin. Second chart shows the 35 delta skew, also moving higher, as upside "chasing" makes a come back. More Less Source: AmberdataSource: AmberdataView one more chart Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:30 Bitcoin bull Bitcoin is extending the most recent surge. We stick with our upside call spreads logic from Monday (here). Make sure to roll into higher strikes dynamically in order to capture max optionality. Note the 200 day coming in slightly higher. We have not traded above it since Jan 2022. 20k is the "psychological" level to watch. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 13 2023 at 15:20 Got crypto? Long crypto is unique these days. That is part of the reason we continue to feel comfortable with our latest squeeze BTC logic (here). Charts show JPM's position proxy based on open interest in CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts. More Less Source: JPMSource: JPMView one more chart Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 20:20 Bitcoin - will you ever attract interest? Let's see if the latest mini move higher reignites some "institutional" interest. One things is sure, the trend is not overly exciting...making the squeeze even more exciting. More Less Source: JPM Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 18:00 Bitcoin's comeback, but... Bitcoin is trading above the 100 day moving average as of writing. We have not seen that since the early November crash. On Monday we outlined our short term BTC squeeze logic and we wrote: "One way to play a possible break out move in BTC is via shorter dated call spreads." This has worked well, but don't forget to roll into higher strikes in order to max out the "greeks". 18500 is a first bigger resistance. Booking some profits and rolling into higher strikes is a strategy we like. Note the 200 day still way higher and the negative trend coming in slightly higher. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 12 2023 at 14:30 You know things are squeezy when... ...even BTC is moving higher. BTC looks to be closing above the range highs. Second chart shows the short term chart moving in tandem with NASDAQ. More Less Source: RefinitivSource: RefinitivView one more chart Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 17:40 Bitcoin optionality Bitcoin volatility has come down sharply. One way to play a possible break out move in BTC is via shorter dated call spreads. Skew is not dirt cheap, but given the implosion in vols, playing directional bets in BTC looks relatively attractive. More Less Source: AmberdataSource: AmberdataView one more chart Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 09:20 Bitcoin - is that a break out attempt? BTC is currently pushing higher, trading at 17200 as of writing. BTC has been stuck inside a massively boring range. A close here or higher and we could be seeing some upside momentum kick in. More Less Source: Refinitiv Link Copied Jan 09 2023 at 09:10 Why to still believe in crypto Bernstein highlights 5 arguments on why one still should believe in crypto despite the current bear cycle and FTX-like catastrophes that have weighed on investor confidence. 1. With maturing internet adoption, crypto still has decades of application-led growth. Crypto only touches 5% of total internet users 2. Crypto's survival instinct is that every crypto winter (in 2014 and 2018 before) is as brutal, but the industry has always come back 3. Ethereum & its ecosystem represents this application-led growth. Gautam believes that value within crypto will migrate from the speculative crypto assets to more utility and application-driven ecosystems such as Ethereum and its related Layer-2 platforms 4. FTX contagion effects are isolated to select players with FTX only 10% of the global trading volumes, and have strengthened the blockchain financial economy 5. Regulation is coming but adds legitimacy to the space for institutions to participate and will be a net positive in the long run in our view. More Less Source: Bernstein Link Copied Jan 04 2023 at 07:00 Bond volatility matters for more than bonds You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 17 minutes ago at 10:00 Even MOVE is moving lower You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 37 minutes ago at 09:40 The puke in correlations You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 09:20 As long as it is tech You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied an hour ago at 09:00 SVB = LTCM? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:40 Leaders & Followers You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:20 Q2 bull story? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 2 hours ago at 08:00 Stocks don't care about no outflows You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:40 Hedge fund positioning near 5-year lows You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:30 Never forget the size buyer You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:20 Helpful, not hurtful You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 3 hours ago at 07:00 2025 baby! You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:40 Hanging on by a Fed Markets are now betting on 2024 seeing bulk of cuts. More Less Source: Credit Suisse Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:30 Q1 summary: positive data You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:20 Q1 summary: easing Financial conditions have eased at the start of 2023... More Less Source: Credit Agricole Link Copied 4 hours ago at 06:00 Who loves China the most? You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:40 China You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:20 Real M1 as a recession signal You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 5 hours ago at 05:00 The money growth horror show You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 6 hours ago at 04:00 Breaking up according to seasonality Is this the "ultimate" squeeze chart. Seasonality just about to kick in... More Less Source: Equity Clock Link Copied 7 hours ago at 03:00 SPX estimates are too optimistic You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 8 hours ago at 02:00 Yearning for the yield curve "analysis" to work... You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 9 hours ago at 01:00 Is this it in terms of earnings cuts? US estimates in chart 1 vs European estimates in chart 2. More Less Source: BernsteinSource: BernsteinView one more chart Link Copied 10 hours ago at 00:00 Puked just in time for the squeeze Is everybody trading short gamma these days. Non dealers positioning puked just in time for the latest squeeze higher. Impressive... More Less Source: GS Link Copied 11 hours ago at 23:00 IG debt ratios You need to be a paying subscriber to read the rest of the article. Sign up via this link More Less Link Copied 12 hours ago at 22:05 Terms Privacy © 2023 The Market Ear