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World
CNA EXPLAINS: WHY 2024 IS A HISTORIC YEAR FOR ELECTIONS
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World
CNA EXPLAINS: WHY 2024 IS A HISTORIC YEAR FOR ELECTIONS
Which are the polls to watch closely, and what are some of the most pressing
risks and consequences? CNA's Chew Hui Min breaks it down.
The US presidential elections on Nov 5 could shape the world’s outlook,
depending on who takes office. (Photo: iStock)
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CNA Explains: Why 2024 is a historic year for elections
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CHEW HUI MIN
@ChewHuiMinCNA
Chew Hui Min
02 Jan 2024 06:06AM (Updated: 02 Jan 2024 10:50AM)
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SINGAPORE: From Taiwan and Indonesia to the EU and the US, a new world order
could be shaped by billions of people casting election votes throughout 2024.
Singaporeans too, may head to the ballot box, with a leadership handover looming
in November.
IKLAN
HOW IS IT SHAPING UP AS A RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR POLLING?
The political fates of more than four billion people - that’s nearly half the
world's population - will be decided in 2024.
At least 40 countries and territories are holding elections this year. These
include economies contributing to a substantial chunk of global GDP.
In India, the world’s most populous country, nearly a billion people will be
eligible to vote in elections from April to May, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi
seeks a third term.
Neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh will also hold elections early in the year,
in a time of turmoil for both.
Within Southeast Asia, after nearly a decade of President Joko Widodo, Indonesia
is set for change - or is it? While Mr Widodo cannot run for another term, his
son Gibran is the running mate of frontrunner and defence minister Prabowo
Subianto.
IKLAN
And the European Union will be having parliamentary elections for the first time
since Brexit, with more than 400 million people expected to vote.
There will also be contests in several countries including Belgium, Austria and
Portugal and while still not confirmed, the United Kingdom is expected to hold
polls in late 2024 or early 2025.
Both Russia and Ukraine are due for elections amid their ongoing conflict. But
Kyiv has declared martial law and is likely to call it off; and for Moscow the
result is nearly a foregone conclusion with strongman Vladimir Putin predicted
to rule till 2030 at least.
The elections with arguably the greatest geopolitical significance, however,
will be Taiwan’s in January and of course, the United States' year-long hustings
that will culminate in November.
WHICH ARE THE ELECTIONS TO WATCH CLOSELY?
The US, Indian and EU elections are most important, since they are major powers,
according to political scientist Chong Ja Ian.
IKLAN
“The direction their new governments take or do not take will have ramifications
far beyond their borders,” said the associate professor from the National
University of Singapore.
The US elections could shape the world’s economic and security outlook,
depending on who takes office, he said.
The election is shaping up to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his
predecessor Donald Trump, whose policies are sharply divergent.
The Biden administration has established more predictable and stable policies
than Trump’s, said the Economist Intelligence Unit's senior analyst Sumedha
Dasgupta.
Should Trump return to power, he is likely to disrupt US foreign policy, even as
wars rage on in Gaza and Ukraine and US-China relations remain rocky.
IKLAN
Ms Dasgupta said a Republican-led administration is likely to deprioritise
climate policy and reevaluate military and financial support for other
countries, while US commitment to Asian allies and groups like the Quad will be
rendered uncertain.
“Sudden swings in policy direction in the US could also undermine allies'
confidence in the US' ability to set long-term policy goals,” she added.
“Amid the gradual decoupling between Western economies and China, the latter is
likely to try to benefit from tensions by wedging differences and boosting
investments into other emerging markets.”
The EU election, meanwhile, will be one of the more controversial votes in the
history of the European Parliament, due to the rise of far-right parties. A
change in the composition of the cross-national parliament will lead to a shift
in policies, and possibly impact the selection of the next European Commission
president after Ursula von der Leyen.
RELATED:
COMMENTARY: WHY SOUTHEAST ASIA SHOULD CARE ABOUT THE 2024 ELECTIONS IN TAIWAN
Turning to Asia, Ms Dasgupta said that an even more nationalistic India under Mr
Modi could increasingly seek to pressure other states to adopt positions that it
finds preferable, creating more friction with other major powers - including
China.
With Beijing, most observers expect more cross-strait volatility after a
Taiwanese election projected to be won by vice-president Lai Ching-te from the
ruling and pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
Ms Dasgupta said this would lead to China stepping up military harassment of
Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory.
“Each manoeuvre carries a risk of unintended security miscalculation and
therefore heightened risk of conflict in the Taiwan Straits,” she said, though
she does not expect China to invade in the near term.
Dr Chong had a contrary view: “I do not think the Taiwan election will change
much. Pressure from the PRC will not abate regardless of who is in office. The
form of the pressure may change, but Beijing will still seek to exert control
over Taiwan.”
As for Indonesia, the degree to which it remains economically vibrant, stable
and able to take on a leadership role in ASEAN will in turn provide greater
stability and assurance to the Southeast Asian region, said Dr Chong.
“An Indonesia that is more willing to go its own way is likely to create even
more obstacles for ASEAN and even the region,” he added.
COULD AI PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE?
This will be the first time key elections are taking place since generative
artificial intelligence gained widespread popularity.
Dr Benjamin Ang from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies pointed
out that using widely available generative AI tools, threat actors both domestic
and foreign can create fake videos, images and stories that are more convincing,
in greater quantities, in more languages and at a faster pace than ever before.
These can “flood and confuse” voters with “distortions, rumours, untruths
misinformation, and smears” about candidates, political parties and issues, said
the head of the think-tank's Centre of Excellence for National Security.
Dr Chong, however, said he has yet to see AI having a significant overall effect
despite the hype around its potential for influencing elections.
“Perhaps the technology is not fully mature yet, but also because AI tools for
detecting fakes are also developing,” he said.
RELATED:
AI BOOSTS DEMOCRATIC PROCESS BUT CONCERNS REMAIN OVER ITS USE TO SPREAD
MISINFORMATION, INFLUENCE ELECTIONS
WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THIS?
Although there are ways to spot some fakes - using clues and even AI tools -
they are getting harder to detect, said Dr Ang.
The larger issue is societies that are polarised along political, race,
religion, gender or other lines.
In such cases, followers of each political party will want to believe and seek
out negative stories about the opposing party even if they are not realistic,
have been debunked or are downright incredible, said Dr Ang.
“Regardless of AI, we as individuals need to recognise and look past our
personal biases," he added.
"And social media platforms need to avoid automatically feeding us stories that
feed and worsen these biases - not just during election times.”
Dr Chong called for better public education on political and media literacy, as
well as critical thinking - along with a robust and independent press.
An active civil society able and willing to help with educating the public and
countering disinformation as well as electoral fraud - without seeming overly
partisan - is also key.
“AI is a technological tool. What it seeks to manipulate is the human psyche and
social interactions," he said.
"Those aspects are human, so any mitigation effort cannot only be technical or
regulatory. They must also address the human side of the equation."
WHAT ARE OTHER POTENTIAL RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES?
Ms Dasgupta anticipates that incumbents will remain in power across the majority
of this year’s elections.
But this pro-incumbency trend also highlights weak democratic norms in many of
Asia’s elections, where opposition parties face high hurdles to gaining power.
Examples include Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
“Such nations have witnessed an erosion in democratic values and choices,
sometimes through the numerical decimation of the opposition, or delays in
holding elections, or curbing of mass protests with violence,” she said.
“This risks weighing on long-term institutional strength, even if it delivers
continuity and stability in the near term.”
Dr Chong said that in places where democracy is less consolidated, there is the
risk of long-standing authoritarians not accepting election results where they
perform below their expectations.
“Dissatisfied autocrats could then mobilise against the election results,
creating conditions for political instability," he said. "Situations where a
large number of voters believe an election is stolen could also lead to unrest."
The associate professor also said that limited media literacy as well as
political and civic education remain concerns throughout the world.
“Overly controlled or distorted media environments is another challenge, since
free and fair elections depend on the availability of quality information on
which voters can make their choices," said Dr Chong.
"These conditions make it easier for election-related mis- and disinformation to
take root.
“In parts of Asia where there is limited transparency and restraint over
authority, unfair elections are a risk, as is election fraud on the more extreme
end of the spectrum," he added.
"There is also the danger of elite capture whether by powerful interest groups,
like certain businesses, or foreign actors.”
Source: CNA/hm(jo)
RELATED TOPICS
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