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BITCOIN, CRYPTO, AND THE 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

 * As of 08/03/2023

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Americans View Money as Increasingly Important; Other Values Decline


Source: WSJ and NORC Poll of 1,019 adults conducted March 1–13, 2023; margin of
error +/–4.1 pct. pts. Prior data from WSJ/NBC News telephone polls in 20191 and
19982
For better or worse, American values have changed over time, particularly with
younger demographics. It appears that a confluence of factors – including the
2008 recession, the rise of social media and the internet, and a highly charged,
increasingly partisan political atmosphere, among other things – has caused
young Americans to have a growing sense of distrust towards institutions. This
timing corresponds with an unprecedented level of income inequality and, perhaps
as a result, increased levels of financial awareness and education3 for young
Americans. These trends—distrust of institutions, income inequality, and
financial awareness—directly coincide with the rise of Bitcoin, in both price
and mainstream adoption. 

Bitcoin Price over Time



Source: CoinMetrics. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Our team has been wondering how these trends might be relevant in the upcoming
2024 American Presidential election, and this piece was designed to capture our
early thoughts. First, Bitcoin is currently at its highest price in an American
Presidential election cycle; Bitcoin is currently trading above $29K, whereas
the previous election cycle high in Q4 2020 was ~$20K. Next, and arguably as
important, the demographic that has grown to be particularly distrusting of
institutions, while simultaneously concerned with their financial future, could
perhaps be the most critical demographic of voters ahead of 2024. In the 2024
Presidential election, young people are projected to become the largest
proportion of voters in history, with early reports noting that Millennials and
Gen-Zers will comprise 44% of American voters by 2024. 

Cathie Wood and Balaji Srinivasan have called 2024 the “Bitcoin election”.
Recently, in July 2023, Larry Fink claimed that “Bitcoin will transcend every
international currency due to broad-based worldwide demand.” If this occurs,
Bitcoin would not just be positioned as a  sidenote for government officials and
policy-makers, but instead as a matter of national security for America. The
facts and continued maturation of the Bitcoin ecosystem seem to suggest that
Bitcoin is and will continue to be more relevant to an American election than
ever before. In fact, early political candidates are already starting to share
positions on Bitcoin and crypto, more broadly. We’ve captured their positions in
the table below.

A presidential candidate’s views on Bitcoin and crypto are important not only
because the president leads the country, but also because the President is
responsible for appointing the heads of more than 50 independent federal
commissions that can have influence over various aspects of crypto, including
the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve and Treasury.


2024 AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL POLITICAL CANDIDATES’ POSITIONS AND/OR VIEWS ON
BITCOIN AND CRYPTO-RELATED TOPICS. CANDIDATES POLLING ABOVE 5% AS OF JULY 2023



Although this is a small snapshot early in the election cycle, the above table
illustrates that there are diverse viewpoints on crypto-related topics within
and across political parties. For example, while former President Trump has
stated his belief that “Bitcoin is a scam,” many Republican candidates strongly
disagree with that sentiment. For example, Desantis, has vowed to protect
Bitcoin from regulation. Ramaswamy has publicly stated that he is pro-Bitcoin
because he views it as a “decentralized alternative” to the U.S. dollar, which
he believes could augment the U.S.’s financial infrastructure by holding the
“existing system’s feet to the fire.” Republican Francis Suarez, nicknamed the
“Bitcoin Mayor”, entered the race in June 2023 after gaining notoriety for
vowing to make Miami a Bitcoin hub and accepting his salary in Bitcoin. On the
Democratic side, RFK Jr. similarly believes Bitcoin is a “major innovation
engine,” and he is now the first major presidential candidate in history to
accept Bitcoin campaign donations; he also recently claimed he would eliminate
capital gains tax on Bitcoin trading21. 

Similarly, candidates’ positions on Bitcoin Mining and CBDCs have not been
party-specific, but have been nuanced on both sides. For example, the Biden
administration proposed a 30% tax on the cost of electricity used for Bitcoin
mining while fellow Democrat RFK Jr. is staunchly against22 any Bitcoin mining
tax. On the Republican side, a core tenet of Ramaswamy’s proposal is  freedom to
mine Bitcoin in America. Likewise, Desantis is also opposed to the proposed 30%
tax. Furthermore, incumbents like Biden and Trump are favorable towards
exploring CBDCs, while Democrat RFK Jr. and Republicans Desantis, Ramaswamy, and
Suarez are strongly opposed to this measure.

The increasing pro-crypto stances of Presidential candidates across political
parties may reflect the idea that Bitcoin and crypto have become nonpartisan
issues that members from both sides can agree upon.


CONCLUSION

Bitcoin is decentralized. There is no Federal Reserve to change money supply.
There is no CEO making decisions that can dramatically change potential
outcomes. There is no gatekeeping; there are no secrets. The Bitcoin ecosystem
is publicly transparent, and anyone with access to the internet can view,
participate, or invest in the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin’s technology and overall
ethos often aligns with the values of a young population that is increasingly
individualistic, skeptical, and concerned about money. Bitcoin can serve
American values regardless of political affiliation.

With Bitcoin’s increasing prominence over time and the significance of the young
voter demographic, it will be interesting to watch how presidential candidates’
stances on crypto evolve and to see how and if they play a role in the 2024
American Presidential election. Ultimately, this is something we are keeping an
eye on at Grayscale, as legislation, policy and regulation will have
far-reaching implications for crypto as an asset class today, as well as
America’s role in the global economy and the future of finance.

 1.  WSJ/NORC poll
     
 2.  NBC News/WSJ 1998 Poll
 3.  TIAA Institute
 4.  Big Village as of 7/26/24
 5.  Blockworks
 6.  Forbes
 7.  Whitehouse.gov
 8.  Cointelegraph
 9.  Decrypt
 10. Cointelegraph
 11. Blockworks
 12. BBC
 13. Forbes
 14. Cointelegraph
 15. Fl.gov
 16. The Street
 17. Coindesk
 18. CBS News
 19. Pymnts
 20. Coindesk
 21. Decrypt

ARTICLE DISCLOSURES

Investments in digital assets are speculative investments that involve high
degrees of risk, including a partial or total loss of invested funds.
Investments in digital assets are not suitable for any investor that cannot
afford loss of the entire investment. 

All content is original and has been researched and produced by Grayscale
Investments, LLC (“Grayscale”) unless otherwise stated herein. No part of this
content may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication,
without the express consent of Grayscale. 

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a
recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any investment in
particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or
informational purposes and is subject to change. This content does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any
security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be
illegal. There is not enough information contained in this content to make an
investment decision and any information contained herein should not be used as a
basis for this purpose. 

This content does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the
particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of investors.

Investors are not to construe this content as legal, tax or investment advice,
and should consult their own advisors concerning an investment in digital
assets. The price and value of assets referred to in this content and the income
from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not indicative of the future
performance of any assets referred to herein. Fluctuations in exchange rates
could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from,
certain investments. 

Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future
expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on Grayscale’s
views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that
could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from
those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements that
are forward-looking by reason of context, the words “may, will, should, could,
can, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts,
potential, projected, or continue” and similar expressions identify
forward-looking statements. Grayscale assumes no obligation to update any
forward-looking statements contained herein and you should not place undue
reliance on such statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Although
Grayscale has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained
herein is accurate, no representation or warranty (including liability towards
third parties), expressed or implied, is made by Grayscale as to its accuracy,
reliability, or completeness. You should not make any investment decisions based
on these estimates and forward-looking statements. 

There is no guarantee that the market conditions during the past period will be
present in the future. Rather, it is most likely that the future market
conditions will differ significantly from those of this past period, which could
have a materially adverse impact on future returns. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING
MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO
THOSE SHOWN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. We selected
the timeframe for our analysis because we believe it broadly constitutes the
most complete historical dataset for the digital assets that we have chosen to
analyze.

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