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A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE DRINKING GAME

Rules and Reasons

Charles Sizemore


Chief Investment Strategist, The Freeport Society


June 27, 2024

Are you ready for this?

It’s June 27, 2024… presidential debate day. The cringe will begin at 9 p.m.
Eastern.

If you’re a political junkie (or just really hate yourself), then we’ll both be
watching the two old men from The Muppet Show lob insults at one another…
demonstrate their lack of any new ideas or fiscal responsibility… and generally
just make us wonder how in the hell we got to this point.

“Winning” this debate, if we can use such a word, would simply be for one of
these two fools to convince voters he’s marginally less bad than the other. 

That’s the state of American democracy. 

It’s come down to this. 

But fear not. 

I’ve got a plan to liven the mood this evening and alleviate the inevitable
sense of dread. 

And yes, it does involve intoxication. They’ve driven me to drink. 

My proposal is this: A presidential debate drinking game.

You’re in?

Great!

Here are the rules… 

Pour the adult beverage of your choice – beer, wine, spirits, cocktail – or
something non-alcoholic if you prefer… and whenever you hear certain keywords or
phrases from one of the candidates, take a good, long drink. 

That’s it.

My initial thought was to go with a Negroni, my nightcap of choice. Then some
sense returned, and I remembered I’m not a young man anymore. These days,
slamming Negronis for 90 minutes will likely leave me nursing a three-day
hangover. 

So, I’m going with something a little lighter. I’ll start with a Shiner Bock
beer and see how the night goes.

Now, what are the keywords and phrases that trigger a deep swig? 


IF TRUMP SAYS…

Take a drink if you hear Donald Trump utter any of the following words or
phrases:

 * “Weaponization”
 * “Fake news”
 * “Best [fill in the blank] evah”
 * “Unfair”
 * “Rigged”
 * “No president has ever [fill in the blank] as me.”
 * “No tax on tip”


IF BIDEN SAYS…

And take a drink if you hear Joe Biden say any of the following:

 * “Convicted felon” 
 * “Student-loan forgiveness”  
 * “MAGA” 
 * “Working-class Americans”
 * “Scranton”
 * Any variation of “Billionaires need to pay their fair share”
 * Or anything utterly nonsensical like “lying, dog-faced pony soldier” or “God
   save the queen” 

This is going to be a night to remember while we use alcohol to ease the pain
these two undesirables unleash on us in 90 minutes… and on the economy over the
next four years.

This is The Freeport Society. We believe that you’re capable of making your own
choices. So we trust you will play this game with me – should you choose to –
responsibly. I don’t want to be responsible for your death by alcohol
poisoning. 

In all seriousness, though, let’s parse one of those phrases I expect we’ll hear
from Trump tonight…

“No tax on tips.”


THE ONLY TAX CUT IN HISTORY I OPPOSE

My view on taxes is simple: Any tax rate higher than zero is excessive and
abusive. 

I exaggerate… but only slightly.

America has a long anti-tax tradition. Taxes under British colonial rule were
estimated at a paltry 1% to 1.5%… and that was enough to provoke open revolt and
lead to an independence movement (the results of which we celebrate a week from
today).

A resistance to taxes is in our blood as Americans. 

Lower income taxes? 

Yes! 

Lower property taxes? 

Damn right! 

Lower sales taxes? 

I demand it!

I can credibly say I have never seen a proposed tax cut that I opposed. 

Until now. 

In his recent rallies, Trump has taken to calling for the elimination of taxes
on tipped income. I’m not sure how this became a rallying cry, as I wasn’t aware
that America’s waiters and waitresses were an identifiable voting bloc. Yet “no
taxes on tips” appears to be this election’s equivalent of “no taxation without
representation.” 

Let’s start with the obvious… 

Most tip income is already untaxed because it goes unreported. When I was
(allegedly) paid cash tips in my youth, I (allegedly) never reported any of it
as income. And it’s safe to assume I wasn’t (allegedly) the only one. Giving a
tax break on something that already mostly escapes taxation is a meaningless
gesture. 

But let’s get more fundamental. Like it or not, the tax code is also a policy
tool. When the government raises taxes on something, they encourage less of it.
That’s bad if you’re talking about income tax. You don’t want to incentivize
people to work less. 

But high taxes on cigarettes were viewed as a tool to encourage people to quit
smoking (or go broke maintaining their vice). Likewise, offering tax breaks on
things like 401(k) plans incentivizes people to save more. 

Now, as a libertarian, I find this kind of governmental paternalism distasteful.
But it’s basic economics and it works. The tax code shapes behavior. 

So, by eliminating the tax on tips, Trump would be incentivizing more tipping. 

Has the man lost his mind? (That’s a rhetorical question, in case you feel
obliged to answer it.)

When I was a child, back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, the standard rate for
tipping in a restaurant was 12%. Sometime around middle school, 15% became
customary. And then one day, overnight, it jumped to 20%. Today, leaving a 20%
tip is considered an insult. 

At the same time, menu prices have consistently risen over the decades due to
inflation. So, service workers naturally see pay increases in line with
cost-of-living increases. Had there been no tip increase, a waiter making 12%
today would be earning a lot more than they would have during my childhood
because they’d be getting 12% on a much higher bill.

So why has the expected tip rate doubled? 

Do waiters work twice as hard today as they did 40 years ago? (Again,
rhetorical.)

Your guess is as good as mine. All the same, I won’t begrudge a good waiter or
waitress their living. If they’re hustling and providing good service, great!
Give ’em their due. 

But why am I now prompted to tip at Starbucks… or the local sandwich shop… or
even the taco truck across the street? 

I’m ordering at a counter… no one is really serving me… and half the time I have
to wipe down my own table. What service, exactly, am I tipping for?

Tipping has crept into every corner of the retail economy. The tip line is
ubiquitous on every payment screen in America, and last time I checked, service
hadn’t materially improved.

If tipping becomes tax free, then we’re going to see even more of it than we do
today.   Companies will be incentivized to lower worker wages on everything from
dry cleaning to garbage collection to the “tipping wage” of $2.13 per hour with
no commensurate reduction in prices to customers. We’ll all end up paying 20%
more for everything… making today’s intolerable inflation even worse. 

That is insanity. 

Not to pick on Trump, of course. Biden has a long list of his own poor policy
decisions with all of their unintended consequences. But we’ll cover those
another day. 

In the meantime, get your drink of choice ready before the show – er… debate –
starts at 9. 

Then come back tomorrow so we can work on protecting and growing our wealth. 

Think of this election as a giant meteor hurtling toward the earth. Yes, it may
very well kill most of us. but if you have your underground bunker prepared and
fully stocked, you have a chance of surviving. 

To life, liberty, and the pursuit of wealth.

Oh, and salud.



P.S. I suggest keeping a couple of extra bottles of your favorite adult beverage
handy. There is a good chance that Trump or Biden’s performance at tonight’s
debate could be the catalyst either party needs to add a surprise candidate to
the roll. Our Freeport Society friend Louis Navellier has a good idea of who he
thinks the Democrats will likely replace Biden with. If that comes to pass,
we’re in serious trouble. Louis shares his theory of who could take the podium
in place of dear, old Joe in this video. I encourage you to watch it now. Once
you have the details, you’re going to want a drink early.


WRITTEN BY CHARLES SIZEMORE

June 27, 2024
Learn more

Charles Lewis Sizemore is a market veteran of 20-plus years. He holds an MSc
Finance and Accounting from the London School of Economics and a BBA in Finance
from Texas Christian University in Fort Worth. He is a keen market observer,
economist, investment analyst, and prolific writer, dedicated to helping people
achieve financial freedom through smart investing.


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