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Warehousing Demand Is Starting to Shrink

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/warehousing-demand-is-starting-to-shrink-19c5feaa

 1. Logistics Report


WAREHOUSING DEMAND IS STARTING TO SHRINK


SUBLEASES ARE SURGING AS COMPANIES PARE BACK STORAGE CAPACITY THEY BUILT UP
DURING THE PANDEMIC

By

Liz Young


Feb. 13, 2024 12:48 pm ET

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(2 min)



Many companies are consolidating warehouses and upgrading to newer buildings
that can accommodate more automation and require less labor. Photo: RICHA
NAIDU/REUTERS

Retailers and their suppliers have been slashing their inventories. Now they’re
turning to cutting back storage space.

A once-booming U.S. warehousing market is coping with signs of contraction as
businesses consolidate warehouses and in some cases upgrade existing sites
rather than add facilities. The shift comes as retailers have turned the corner
on a big drawdown of inventories and are aligning their supply chains for more
normal, prepandemic stocking and consumer spending patterns. 

Consumer-goods maker

Newell Brands
, retail-pharmacy chain
Rite Aid
and sports-apparel retailer Fanatics are among the merchants closing warehouses
or upgrading existing facilities rather than opening new sites this year.



Other companies are unloading storage capacity by subleasing space. The amount
of U.S. warehouse space listed for sublease reached a record high of more than
156 million square feet in the fourth quarter of 2023, more than three times the
amount available in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to real-estate
services firm

Savills
.





That marks a significant change for an industrial real-estate market that saw
demand explode and vacancy rates plummet during the pandemic, as e-commerce
orders soared and retailers stocked up on goods to avoid supply-chain
disruptions. 

The tight market pushed the average warehouse asking rent up by nearly 24% in
2022 year-over-year, compared with an annual increase of 6.3% in 2019 before the
pandemic, according to real-estate services firm JLL.

The growth in rents has slowed more recently, with rents rising 12.5% in 2023
compared with the period a year earlier, according to JLL.

The turnabout comes as more manufacturers and retailers are returning to the
“just-in-time” lean inventory management strategy that had given way to greater
stockpiling during the pandemic, as companies sought to build so-called buffer
stock amid product shortages and widespread supply chain disruptions. 

Some businesses now are subleasing space they had added “based on projections
that didn’t come to fruition,” said Mark Russo, head of industrial research at
Savills. “It was a lot of just-in-case inventory management thinking and
thinking that that level of consumption was going to keep going up.”



Russo said companies are retooling their supply chains to match projections for
more moderate growth in consumer spending.

“We’re coming off of a really unusual heightened period of demand, and that’s
normalizing,” he said.

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Russo noted space listed for sublease represents a small portion of total
available warehouse space as developers complete construction on buildings
across the country that were started without tenants lined up, known as
speculative development. 

Many companies now are consolidating warehouses and upgrading to newer buildings
that can accommodate more automation and require less labor, said Mehtab
Randhawa, global head of industrial research at JLL.

“If you’ve got three different facilities or four different facilities and your
real-estate costs are high, if you’re coming up on renewal, it might make sense
to go down from four to three in a more efficient facility,” Randhawa said.

Newell Brands, which makes Yankee Candles and Sharpie markers, said it is
closing a home-fragrance distribution center in Pataskala, Ohio, in March. A
company spokesperson said the building’s operations will move to an existing
warehouse in Newville, Pa., as part of a broader plan to reduce its number of
distribution centers and instead run “more regionalized, multisourced plants
with upgraded automation and digitization capabilities.”

Rite Aid, which filed for bankruptcy in October, is closing hundreds of stores
and plans to close a warehouse in Woodland, Calif., and shift operations to
another facility in Lancaster, Calif., beginning in May, a spokesperson said.

Fanatics is shutting down a warehouse in Jacksonville, Fla. A company spokesman
said the building is one of the oldest logistics facilities the company
operates. “We will be shifting our fulfillment efforts to newer buildings in and
around the region where we have access to updated technology and infrastructure
to ensure a better fan experience,” the spokesman said.

New warehouse space remains in the industrial-property pipeline. Warehouse
leasing activity across the U.S. increased 14.8% in the fourth quarter compared
with the third quarter, although that was down 9% compared with the same quarter
the year before, according to JLL. 

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Write to Liz Young at liz.young@wsj.com

Copyright ©2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the February 14, 2024, print edition as 'Warehousing Demand Is
Starting to Shrink'.


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