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CHINA DE-LINKING TALK IS OVERDONE AND IT'S STILL KEY TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY,
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SAYS

BY LEE YING SHAN,CNBC • PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 25, 2024 • UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 25,
2024 AT 7:22 PM



Yaorusheng | Moment | Getty Images

View of Shanghai skyline from a container station.

 * China is still the leading trading partner for many countries, and the
   narrative it being delinked from the global economy is overdone, says the
   ADB.
 * China's trade with its major partners fell in 2023 — its annual exports
   dipped for the first time in seven years.
 * Although there have been parts of overall trade with China that have
   declined, the country's engagement and importance in the global value chain
   has not diminished, said ADB's chief economist.

China is still a critical trading partner for many countries across the world,
and the often-used narrative of the superpower being delinked from the global
economy is overdone, says the Manila-headquartered Asian Development Bank. 

"China's still probably the number one trading partner for the majority of
countries in the world," ADB's Chief Economist Albert Park told CNBC. 

Although there have been parts of overall trade with China that have declined,
the country's engagement and importance in the global value chain has not
diminished, said Park.

China's trade with its major partners fell in 2023 — its annual exports dipped
for the first time in seven years as demand for Chinese goods fell amid slower
global growth. However, the economic powerhouse remains a top trading partner to
over 120 countries, and is still the largest trading partner to Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, according to U.S. think tank Wilson Center.

While it may ring true for certain goods or specific countries that are "very
aggressively trying to restrict Chinese trade," on a more global scale the
delinking is much less evident, said the economist. He added that even following
the trade conflict started by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018,
China's importance in the global value chain has not slumped. 

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. have been festering since 2018 with
Trump slapping tariffs and other trade barriers on China. Even so, China
continued to play an outsized role in the global economy, accounting for 18% of
global GDP and is regarded still as the world's largest trading economy. 


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"The story of China being delinked from the global economy — I think those are
probably generally very overdone or very partial," Park continued.

On China's end, a pursuit of self-reliance has decreased its dependency on
imports, but China continues to maintain its reliance on foreign demand, scaling
up on exports which have become intertwined with the country's growth. 

"All told, a delinking of global production processes and consumption from China
is not in sight," the U.S. Federal Reserve said in a recent February statement.

The U.S. and EU have been considering imposing sanctions on Chinese companies it
believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine, a move which could hurt the
Chinese economy even further as it tries to move out of the post-Covid
doldrums. Doubts about investing in China have gained ground as the economy
continues to battle pressures from deflation, an economic slowdown, and an
embattled property market.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ASIA?

As China's global trade links remain extensive, its stymied growth recovery
story continues to pose a risk to Asia's trade environment, Park noted.

"China remains an important demand side risk, because there's still a lot of
questions about the resilience of Chinese growth," Park said. "We often had a
rule of thumb that 1% slower growth in China reduced export demand by something
like 0.3%," he said.


Zhang Jingang | Future Publishing | Getty Images
A view of the automated container port in Qingdao in east China's Shandong
province. 

Other factors also present a headwind to Asia's trade ecosystem. Moderating
global economic growth is expected to weigh on external demand for exports out
of Asia, Park surmised. 

That said, he expects the semiconductor cycle to rebound, which may offer some
hope for high tech exporters in Asia such as South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
Improved demand from the U.S. and EU, and strong growth in India are also likely
to benefit Asia's trade prospects, the ADB said in its 2024 Asian Economic
Integration Report released Monday.

Asian trade last year came in "stagnant" and below 2022 levels as a result of
global monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and a downturn in the
semiconductor cycle, the ADB said. 



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