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QUIET NOW, INTELLECTUALS. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

Shlomo Sand
Apr. 2, 2020
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Donald Trump and Boris Johnson at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain,
December 4, 2019. Credit: Peter Nicholls / AP

Shlomo Sand
Apr. 2, 2020
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Apr. 2, 2020


There’s a well-known saying in Jewish tradition that after the Temple’s
destruction, prophecy was taken away from the prophets and given to fools and
babies. Nevertheless, now of all times, amid an unprecedented worldwide
calamity, an array of intellectual would-be prophets are popping up and
purporting to be able to predict the future, both near and far.



Famed Italian philosopher Giorgio Agamben published an article on February 26 in
which he maintained that the Italian authorities deliberately went overboard in
instituting extreme emergency measures when, in his view, no government action
of this sort was required against what he termed a “supposed epidemic.” With the
threat of terrorism having faded, the Italian government invented a fake future
epidemic in order to curtail the public’s liberties, he theorized.




HAREDI LEADERS LEARN HARSH CORONA LESSON AS ISRAEL SENDS IN THE TROOPS

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At the time that Agamben’s article came out, U.S. President Donald Trump and
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, for their own, completely different
reasons, did not disagree with it. As they saw it, there was no good reason to
whip up fear over the epidemic. But these two are not sophisticated philosophers
like Agamben. They are populist politicians whose position is thus somewhat
understandable.


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In Israel, too, intellectuals of varying degrees of brilliance have been trying
to convince us that they have some idea what the future holds for us. One
assures us that only a renewal of the welfare state will save us from the coming
economic crisis; another sees the coronavirus as an opportunity for the renewal
of classic nationalism; and a third, having previously prophesied that humanity
may rid itself of the threat of epidemics once and for all, now promises us that
the world is facing social experiments that will completely alter it.



When I became a historian I learned from Friedrich Schlegel that “the historian
is a backwards-looking prophet.” As a leftist, I sometimes spied glimmers of
hope in the haze of the distant future. But at the same time I knew that
whatever plans we made would always turn out differently from what we’d hoped.
Even so, I accepted that planning was still essential on both the personal and
collective level.


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We differ from animals in that we forecast much further into the future. But
every expectation, every forecast, is based on an analogy. In fact, all ordinary
individual thought and general political thought is nearly always analogical. We
plan on the basis of past experience and replay this experience over and over
again.


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We are not helpless against the action of the microscopic virus that cruelly
strikes primarily at the weak. We are taking many precautionary measures, we are
isolating the sick, intubating the most seriously ill, and scientists around the
world are tirelessly racing to find a vaccine that will save the day.


 * Testing stalls as cases rise in ultra-Orthodox enclaves
 * Israel's elite commando unit enlisted to aid in coronavirus testing
 * Israeli health minister diagnosed with coronavirus; top officials forced to
   quarantine

But on the general intellectual level, we are still at a loss. We do not know if
the real crux of the crisis is only health-related or to what extent it is also
economic, political, cultural or even civilizational. The mind has no analogical
dimension that can enable us to predict how the future will be. In other words,
for now we can only play checkers with the future, but not chess. We do not
possess past fields of comparison from which we can glean knowledge that would
reliably allow our imaginations to leap very far forward.


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Having begun by talking about prophecy, I will conclude with a bit of advice
from a wise prophet. “Therefore the prudent keep quiet in such times, for the
times are evil,” Amos counseled many centuries ago. Evidently he was well aware
that modesty is not such a common trait among intellectuals, a rule that applies
to me too, of course. Maybe there was no need for me to write this piece, but
the brilliant Agamben really riled me. Internet commenters, who are not
especially fond of me, will probably confirm as much in the section below.



The writer is a professor emeritus of history.


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   A profile can be built about you and your interests to show you personalised
   content that is relevant to you.
   
   Object to Legitimate Interests Remove Objection

 * SELECT PERSONALISED CONTENT
   
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   Personalised content can be shown to you based on a profile about you.
   
   Object to Legitimate Interests Remove Objection

 * MEASURE AD PERFORMANCE
   
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   The performance and effectiveness of ads that you see or interact with can be
   measured.
   
   Object to Legitimate Interests Remove Objection

 * MEASURE CONTENT PERFORMANCE
   
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   The performance and effectiveness of content that you see or interact with
   can be measured.
   
   Object to Legitimate Interests Remove Objection

 * APPLY MARKET RESEARCH TO GENERATE AUDIENCE INSIGHTS
   
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   Market research can be used to learn more about the audiences who visit
   sites/apps and view ads.
   
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 * DEVELOP AND IMPROVE PRODUCTS
   
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   Your data can be used to improve existing systems and software, and to
   develop new products
   
   Object to Legitimate Interests Remove Objection

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USE PRECISE GEOLOCATION DATA

Use precise geolocation data

Your precise geolocation data can be used in support of one or more purposes.
This means your location can be accurate to within several meters.

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ACTIVELY SCAN DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION

Actively scan device characteristics for identification

Your device can be identified based on a scan of your device's unique
combination of characteristics.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT FRAUD, AND DEBUG

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent fraudulent activity, and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely.

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TECHNICALLY DELIVER ADS OR CONTENT

Always Active

Your device can receive and send information that allows you to see and interact
with ads and content.

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MATCH AND COMBINE OFFLINE DATA SOURCES

Always Active

Data from offline data sources can be combined with your online activity in
support of one or more purposes

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES

Always Active

Different devices can be determined as belonging to you or your household in
support of one or more of purposes.

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RECEIVE AND USE AUTOMATICALLY-SENT DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends, such as IP address or browser type.

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BACK BUTTON PERFORMANCE COOKIES



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WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PRIVACY

We and our partners store and/or access information on a device, such as unique
IDs in cookies to process personal data. You may accept or manage your choices
by clicking below, including your right to object where legitimate interest is
used, or at any time in the privacy policy page. These choices will be signaled
to our partners and will not affect browsing data.Privacy Policy


WE AND OUR PARTNERS PROCESS DATA TO PROVIDE:

Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for
identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised ads
and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product
development. List of Partners (vendors)

I Accept Show Purposes




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