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Feature


TO STOP PUTIN, GRAB HIM BY HIS WALLET

Natalia Antonova // December 9, 2021

The dominant religion of Russian officials is money. There are many ways to
exploit that, starting with a long list of individually targeted sanctions.

Credit: Alex PolonskyA Ukrainian flag from the war in the east at a
demonstration in Kyiv on March 14, 2020.

Russia appears to be preparing for a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Satellite
images show the  Kremlin has been moving military materiel to the border since
October, while intelligence analysis posits that as many as 175,000 troops are
headed for border-region Russian army bases. These developments have alarmed
both Europe and the United States, with President Biden warning President Putin
on Tuesday of “strong economic and other measures” during a two-hour video
summit between the two leaders. 

Western leaders are conducting their foreign policy as though nothing can be
done to stop Putin. This is a mistake: he's weaker and more vulnerable than he
appears.  

The ongoing conflict began more than seven years ago, after the November 2013
Euromaidan Uprising that led to the popular ousting of Viktor Yanukovich, a
fantastically corrupt president who had largely been Putin’s ally. The Russian
president responded in March 2014 by invading and annexing Crimea, and
destabilizing parts of the Ukrainian east. Now, a simmering conflict is poised
to get much worse. How should  Western powers respond, particularly given that
Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO?

First, we must dispense with the idea that we can and should do nothing. As
someone originally from Ukraine I am a biased observer; but even when I set
aside my desire to prevent Putin from killing my relatives, I can see dire
consequences for ostensibly disinterested parties. Western states would prefer
to pretend that the headache called Vladimir Putin didn’t exist, given all the
other headaches they have to deal with — like the global pandemic and rising
inflation — but deal with him they must.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would cause instability throughout Europe and
beyond, including a gas pipeline disruption and the loss of a buffer zone
between NATO and an ever-belligerent Russia. Adventurism by leaders of other
countries—such as Iran, for example—who would see the distraction and the dismay
as an opportunity, would likely increase in scope. The current refugee crisis
would grow exponentially, with disastrous repercussions. Markets would suffer,
as would businesses and aviation.  

Russia’s other neighbors — including Central Asian regimes — could become
increasingly unstable. Putin is using extreme measures in an attempt to bully
Western powers into keeping Ukraine out of NATO; his fear is the prospect of
seeing the Western alliance’s military forces right on his border, but this fear
holds risks for the entire region. As long as there are no consequences to his
actions, Putin will not stop. 

The Russian view of Ukraine, which was part of the czarist empire and the Soviet
Union, is distorted by imperialist propaganda that describes it as both a nation
of buffoons and a threat that Russia must pacify. Russia also sees Ukraine as
the stage for another grievance—that of Western triumphalism following the end
of the Cold War, which the United States described as a “victory.” To put the
matter in crude but simple terms, America insulted Russia and Putin, the former
KGB officer, wants revenge.

Putin seems to believe that demoralizing the United States, which has provided
aid to Ukraine  since it became independent in 1992, would be a major win for
Russia. Ukraine is poised to fight, even if their military is destined to lose
an all-out war against Russia’s, but images of carnage and violence don’t deter
Putin easily. We must understand that the Russian president would be initially
unmoved by the sight of Russian soldiers coming home in body bags. 

“Who the hell do Ukrainians think they are?” was something I often heard in
elite Moscow circles— among businessmen, television personalities,
politicians—after the ousting of Yanukovych and the launch of the 2014 war.
Russia’s ruling elite disliked the idea of Ukrainians possibly enjoying a
functioning democracy and a better standard of living than they had. Moscow sees
a stable, prosperous Ukraine as hostile simply because its existence might cause
ordinary Russians to ask questions about why they were comparatively worse off. 

Because Russia is an extremely unequal society, its elite sees ordinary citizens
as less than human and thus not entitled to ask uncomfortable questions, which
might lead to popular discontent. In order to maintain their position, the
leadership is most likely to choose divide-and-conquer: Incite a bunch of
ordinary Russians against Ukrainians, dial up anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western
propaganda, and keep everyone distracted with a war. 

What’s to be done to prevent this looming nightmare that will involve both
bloodshed and wider instability? 

First, the Western nations must stop behaving as though they are powerless.
Putin sees Western consternation as a sign of weakness.

It’s important, furthermore, to understand that Putin is not an ideologue. He
uses ideology as an effective shield, but in practice he’s just another
kleptocrat—albeit one with nuclear weapons. Russia’s new elite is composed of
his close friends and important functionaries, all of whom benefit financially
from their relationship with the president; normal people loathe Putin’s friends
because they are so overtly corrupt. That very justifiable hatred is one of
Russia’s greatest vulnerabilities, and one of the saddest elements of modern
Russian life, which is dominated by stress and suspicion. Putin is the single
leadership figure that Russians look to today, but he cannot fix all their
problems. Meanwhile, brewing discontent is ripe for exploitation.

Western powers must also draw clear red lines by naming consequences and then
acting upon them if Putin refuses to back down. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT
(Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication)—the international
system that allows banks to carry out trans-border transactions—should
absolutely be on the table. This would rattle the Russian economy and have an
immediate impact on Russian citizens. Notice how you can’t send money to an
Iranian bank from the United States? That’s because Iran has been cut off from
SWIFT; this affects everyone in Iran, from the leadership to ordinary people on
the street. 

A move to cut Russia off from SWIFT would also, of course, impact U.S. banks and
German banks, which use it to communicate with Russia. But these banks are more
insulated from financial pain because their economies are far more robust and
integrated than Russia’s.

The Russian elite loves opulence. It stashes its assets (and, frequently, its
children) abroad — popular spots include London and Paris, Manhattan and Miami,
the Cayman Islands, and Cyprus. The dominant religion of Russian officials is
money. There are many ways to exploit that, starting with a potentially very
long list of individually targeted sanctions, such as those already levelled at
dangerous Kremlin lackeys like businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has been
indicted in the U.S. for the role he played in meddling in the 2016 election;
and propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov, the notorious state TV presenter who is
Russia’s own Tucker Carlson, only virtually unopposed.

Another factor to consider is Moscow’s fragile relationship with Beijing, with
the Kremlin particularly worried about China expanding its influence in Russia’s
Far East, where there are real tensions between the local leadership and Putin’s
central government. When you want to know what bothers the Russian government,
look at what it is restricting or monitoring. The FSB, for example, controls the
Russian census in order to cover up resentment of Moscow in different parts of
Russia. I was in Moscow when the 2010 census was conducted, and saw how
researchers noted that the number of people identifying as “Siberian” as opposed
to “Russian” had spiked. Today, writing about these issues in Russia can easily
land you on a watchlist. All of this demonstrates that Moscow is worried about
Russian territorial integrity. 

Russian propagandists tend to yell at me when I make these observations; they
are defensive because they know I am telling the truth. Moscow is wary of
China’s ambitions in the Far East and elsewhere, how they might affect Russia’s
position in areas ranging from the Arctic to outer space, and how an already
resentful Russian society might react to their country’s declining position.
Washington can leverage that fear in many ways, most saliently by playing up the
fact that Moscow today is nothing but Beijing’s uneasy sidekick. Russia is
poorer and more vulnerable than China. Its population is declining. In its
desire for great power status, it is decidedly outmatched by Beijing. These
facts already don’t sit well with Putin, but are particularly infuriating to
Russia’s citizens. 

Engaging Russia directly would merely serve to create another vortex of violent
instability. But Russian private military companies (PMCs) have their fingers in
many pies — in countries like the Central African Republic and Venezuela, where
they are interested in both resource extraction and political influence.
Signaling that all of these ventures are fair game for hostile action might not
have an immediate effect—Putin likes PMCs precisely because they are
expendable—but many of the Russian leader’s friends have significant amounts of
money tied up in these ventures; inflicting pain on them makes him vulnerable. 

Most importantly, we must not mythologize Putin. Nor should we adopt the
approach of the notorious Fox TV commentator, Tucker Carlson, who claims that
Putin is massing troops and materiel because he needs to “secure” his border
with Ukraine. This is a cynical political move: Carlson’s ratings go up every
time he trashes President Joe Biden. If Biden is opposed to Putin, Carlson will
side with Putin, even at the cost of global stability and the international
standing of the United States. If Putin came out and claimed he needed his
“Lebensraum” now, Tucker would probably cheer him on, and that’s all you need to
know about that. 

Instead of being like Tucker, we should simply see the depressing system Putin
created in all of its stark, granular detail — and understand that it won’t stop
after it devours Ukraine. The time to oppose it is now.

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Western leaders are conducting their foreign policy as though nothing can be
done to stop Putin. This is a mistake: he's weaker and more vulnerable than he
appears.  

Natalia Antonova

Natalia Antonova is a writer, journalist, and open source intelligence
specialist. She is currently based in Washington, D.C. Follow her on Twitter
@NataliaAntonova.


Natalia Antonova

Natalia Antonova is a writer, journalist, and open source intelligence
specialist. She is currently based in Washington, D.C. Follow her on Twitter
@NataliaAntonova.


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Feature ‘Bees are like my family’: A female beekeeper is reviving honey
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