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EXPLORING 'AMERICA FIRST': THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS AND OECD PILLARS
Article
December 17, 2024
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THE ISSUES FACING THE U.S.
The primary ‘America first’ policy initiative for tariffs and a more competitive
international tax policy emanates from the proposition that: 1) an unbalanced
global trade system has hollowed U.S. manufacturing, and 2) current global
international tax initiatives seek to achieve the same from the U.S. technology
industry.
AN UNBALANCED GLOBAL TRADE SYSTEM
The incoming administration asserts that current trade rules allow and even
incentivize the flow of capital away from where it is most needed and most
productive. The incoming administration believes current U.S. trade policy fails
to recognize that other countries’ industrial policy acts as a form of trade
policy, whereby current trade rules perpetuate a system characterized by large,
persistent trade imbalances. Taking advantage of the free flow of capital,
surplus countries have subsidized their manufacturing industries but passed on
the costs of these subsidies to deficit countries like the U.S.
Surplus countries’ industrial policies have had important implications for U.S.
manufacturing, unemployment and debt. Those countries, which subsidize their
production via industrial and trade policy, are, in essence, acquiring American
assets to balance their surplus. As a result, the U.S. runs trade deficits.
Because surplus countries have subsidized their manufacturing at the expense of
domestic consumption, the U.S. manufacturing industry has been forced to
indirectly subsidize American consumption.
The impact is a decline in American manufacturing and a shift of global
manufacturing from deficit countries like the U.S. to surplus countries (e.g.,
China, India, Germany) over the past five decades. This trade imbalance has
depressed U.S. savings rates through a combination of higher underemployment,
higher household debt and an ever-growing fiscal deficit.
HARMFUL GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL TAX INITIATIVES
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) two-pillar
solution is seen as harmful to the U.S. technology industry. Under Pillar One,
the U.S. has been at the heart of the debate surrounding the Amount A rules,
which would give market jurisdictions the right to share in the profits of
multinationals irrespective of where they are headquartered. Both of these
rules, and the domestic digital services taxes (DSTs) they were intended to
supersede, have been viewed in Washington as an attack on U.S. tech firms, and
resistance is likely to harden under the new administration.
Pillar Two is the global minimum tax, which aims to impose a 15% global minimum
tax on large multinationals. An income inclusion rule (IRR) is now in force in
the U.K., Canada and most EU member states, with legislation providing for an
undertaxed profits rule (UTPR) from 2025.
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PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
As discussions on President-elect Trump’s trade policy and tax reform continue
and more guidance emerges, potential policies under the incoming administration
and a Republican-majority Congress could include international tax provisions
and tariff reforms, which may significantly impact both domestic and
international trade.
TARIFFS AND GLOBAL TRADE IMBALANCES
It is presumed tariffs will be used to combat the global trade imbalances of
surplus countries who force the U.S. manufacturing industry to subsidize foreign
industries. What is unknown is whether tariffs are a foregone conclusion or
merely a tool. With President-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for
Treasury Secretary, many are betting on the latter.
TARIFFS AND THE OECD PILLARS
The impact of tariffs may be felt most in the context of the OECD’s two-pillar
solution to taxing the digital economy.
It has proved difficult to achieve consensus on the Pillar One Amount A rules
even outside of the U.S., and the mechanics of their implementation — which
require agreement from territories housing a majority of affected groups — mean
that opposition from the White House could be terminal. The obvious response is
for governments elsewhere to turn again to DSTs, but they will need to weigh the
potential for additional revenue against the real risk of retaliatory U.S.
tariffs.
The prospect of new tariffs may also have an impact in the context of Pillar
Two, which aims to impose a 15% global minimum tax on large multinationals. An
IRR is now in force in the U.K., Canada, and most EU member states, with
legislation providing for an undertaxed profits rule (UTPR) from 2025 being
enacted for most of that population. There remains a long list of jurisdictions
that have not yet implemented these rules, and the deferred introduction of the
UTPR, in particular, presents an opportunity for President-elect Trump’s
administration to apply pressure on countries that may be considering
introducing local Pillar Two rules.
If countries see a link between whether they apply the Pillar Two rules and the
U.S. attitude to new tariffs, they may now think twice about adopting them or
even consider repealing them. The fact that China and India have already opted
to sit on the sidelines does not help their cause.
POTENTIAL NEW INTERNATIONAL TAX LEGISLATION AND THE OECD PILLARS
In 2023, all Republicans of the House Ways and Means introduced the Defending
American Jobs and Investment Act. The proposed legislation would increase income
tax and withholding tax rates, initially by five percentage points, increasing
up to 20 percentage points on certain foreign citizens, foreign corporations,
and foreign partnerships of any foreign country that is listed in a report on
the extraterritorial taxes and discriminatory taxes of foreign countries
submitted by the Secretary of the Treasury to certain Congressional committees.
The bill took aim at the OECD’s two-pillar solution and at countries that
introduce DSTs, with the extraterritorial tax focusing on the UTPR and the
discriminatory tax focusing on DSTs. It is anticipated an updated version of
this proposed legislation will be advanced.
FUTURE OF CURRENT INTERNATIONAL TAX PROVISIONS
The Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) regime is expected to stay,
though its rates might be subject to change. Additionally, the Foreign-Derived
Intangible Income (FDII) provision could be leveraged to incentivize domestic
production and exports, aligning with President-elect Trump's focus on
bolstering U.S. manufacturing — a stance that contrasts with President Biden's
previous approach to export subsidies:
* GILTI: GILTI, codified under Section 951A, imposes a tax on income derived
from intangible assets held by U.S. multinationals in low-tax jurisdictions.
Currently, companies can claim a 50% deduction on GILTI, resulting in a 10.5%
effective rate, which is scheduled to increase to 13.125% after 2025. Many
anticipate the increase to be repealed and the current rate extended, or a
lesser increase than currently planned.
* FDII: Similarly, FDII, under Section 250, provides a deduction on income from
U.S.-owned intangible assets used abroad, effectively reducing the tax rate
to 13.125%, with an increase to 16.406% slated for post-2025. Trump's
administration may propose to repeal or lower the increase to 15%, intending
to stimulate U.S. exports and the development of intangible assets by making
it more financially attractive for companies to hold and use such assets
domestically.
* Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT): BEAT, under Section 59A, serves as an
alternative minimum tax targeting profit shifting through deductible payments
made to foreign affiliates. The BEAT rate is set to rise from 10% to 12.5%
after 2025. President-elect Trump has expressed an interest in maintaining
this increased rate to combat base erosion practices effectively, potentially
influencing multinational tax strategies and reducing the incentive for
profit shifting.
* Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT): The CAMT imposes a 15% minimum tax
on the adjusted financial statement income (AFSI) of large corporations whose
three-year average annual AFSI exceeds $1 billion (applicable corporations).
The CAMT was seen as the U.S. response to the OECD’s Pillar Two minimum tax,
and many predict that the new administration and congress will seek to repeal
the CAMT.
REFLECTIONS ON U.S. INTERNATIONAL TAX AND OECD PILLARS
It is anticipated that the new administration will likely make progress more
difficult for the two OECD pillars. The impact of this is compounded by the
complexity and international reach of U.S. domestic tax policy, from the GILTI
and BEAT regimes introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), which
are expected to remain in place. Further, the potential elimination of the U.S.
CAMT introduced under Biden as an alternative to Pillar Two may reduce the
prospect of greater alignment between U.S. regimes and their alternatives in the
EU and elsewhere (including the U.S. choosing to implement Pillar Two).
YOUR GUIDE FORWARD
Considering the proposed international tax and tariff changes under the Trump
administration, businesses and policymakers face a complex landscape requiring
careful navigation. Cherry Bekaert’s International Tax Services professionals
are committed to closely monitoring upcoming legislation and regulatory changes
to help guide domestic and international businesses through this evolving tax
environment. Whether it's managing penalty regimes on international forms,
addressing court and transfer pricing cases or establishing compliance within a
new regulatory framework, Cherry Bekaert is here to support your business in
adapting to the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Connect With Us
RELATED INSIGHTS
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Business
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Trade
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Legislation
* Article: Republican House Majority Sets Stage for 2025 Tax Policy
DISCLAIMER:
This content focuses on presidential tax proposal plans and is intended to
provide general information about the potential tax legislation that may be
implemented by the future government. The information provided in this content
piece is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice and should not be relied
upon as such. The prospective potential legislation mentioned in this content
piece is subject to change, and there is no guarantee that any proposed
legislation will be enacted into law. Any action taken based on the information
provided in this content piece is at their own risk, and Cherry Bekaert shall
not be held liable for any such action taken.
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Brian Dill
International Tax Leader
Partner, Cherry Bekaert Advisory LLC
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents
* The Issues Facing the U.S.
* Proposed Solutions
* Reflections on U.S. International Tax and OECD Pillars
* Your Guide Forward
* Related Insights
CONTRIBUTOR
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BRIAN DILL
International Tax Leader
Partner, Cherry Bekaert Advisory LLC
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