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Jan 14, 2021,02:00am EST|32,509 views


YES, THE JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE REALLY SHOULD LAUNCH IN 2021

Ethan Siegel
Senior Contributor
Starts With A Bang
Contributor Group
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Science
The Universe is out there, waiting for you to discover it.

Fauci Says People Should Feel Free To ‘Enjoy The Holidays’ With Family This Year
— Especially If They’re All Vaccinated
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SHARE: FAUCI SAYS PEOPLE SHOULD FEEL FREE TO ‘ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS’ WITH FAMILY
THIS YEAR — ESPECIALLY IF THEY’RE ALL VACCINATED


FAUCI SAID ON ABC’S THIS WEEK HE “BELIEVE[S] STRONGLY” THAT AMERICANS CAN “ENJOY
THE HOLIDAYS,” “PARTICULARLY … IF YOU’RE VACCINATED AND YOUR FAMILY MEMBERS ARE
VACCINATED.”

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One of the last tests that will be performed on NASA's James Webb is a final
check of the mirror ... [+] deployment sequence in full. With all environmental
stress testing now out of the way, these last checks will hopefully be routine,
paving the way for a successful 2021 launch.

NASA / James Webb Space Telescope team

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, originally proposed in the 1990s, is finally
slated to launch later this year: at the end of October, 2021. In many ways,
it’s the successor telescope to Hubble, capable of showing us the Universe
beyond our current limits. Not only will James Webb be the largest telescope
ever sent to space, capable of gathering more light and achieving superior
resolution compared with any prior space-based observatory, but it will be
specialized for near-infrared and mid-infrared wavelengths, allowing it to peer
through the gas and dust that obscures the views of our other cutting-edge
telescopes.



But a series of unfortunate events — from missed engineering targets to funding
woes to problems with project management to the current pandemic — have pushed
the target launch date out year after year. An initial launch date of 2007 was
pushed to 2011, then to 2014, then to 2018 and now, at the latest, to 2021. Many
have publicly expressed their skepticism that this observatory, whose lifetime
cost now nears $9 billion, would ever launch. For the first time, however, the
target launch year now matches the current year, and all signs point to an
on-time launch on or around October 31, 2021. Here’s where we are today.

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As we're exploring more and more of the Universe, we're able to look farther
away in space, which ... [+] equates to farther back in time. The James Webb
Space Telescope will take us to depths, directly, that our present-day observing
facilities cannot match, with Webb's infrared eyes revealing the ultra-distant
starlight that Hubble cannot hope to see.

NASA / JWST AND HST TEAMS

It’s important to recognize that the James Webb Space Telescope, the first NASA
astrophysics flagship mission since the original four great observatories of
Hubble, Compton, Chandra and Spitzer, represents an unprecedented series of
“firsts.” It’s the first space telescope anywhere near its size, with a primary
mirror diameter of ~6.5 meters (21.3 feet), nearly twice the diameter and with
quadruple the light-gathering power of the previous record-holder: the European
Space Agency’s Herschel Telescope.

It’s the only space telescope equipped with its suite of modern instruments.
It’s the only one to have such a sophisticated pointing system. It’s the first
telescope of this scale that will be located not in near-Earth orbit, but some
1,500,000 kilometers away: at the L2 Langrange point beyond the farthest reaches
of the Moon. It’s the first multi-segmented mirror that will have to unfold and
calibrate itself to 20 nanometer tolerance in space. And it’s the first
telescope ever to employ a multi-layer sunshield, designed to passively cool the
telescope and its instruments to below liquid nitrogen temperatures.

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An artist's conception (2015) of what the James Webb Space Telescope will look
like when complete ... [+] and successfully deployed. Note the five-layer
sunshield protecting the telescope from the heat of the Sun, and the
fully-deployed primary (segmented) and secondary (held by the trusses) mirrors.

Northrop Grumman


Whenever you do something novel for the very first time, it becomes very
difficult to predict what sort of obstacles you’re going to encounter. In many
ways, James Webb feels like it’s been an unlucky project in a number of ways, as
some of its woes were completely unforeseeable, but others have been expensive
lessons learned by NASA’s astrophysics division. The initial cost estimate for
this version of Webb (in its current configuration) was only $5.1 billion, and
there was initial mismanagement early on as milestones were missed and
insufficient action was taken.

In 2010, it became clear that the launch date (which was 2014 at the time) was
not feasible, and both the internal critical design review and an external
Independent Comprehensive Review Panel concluded that the primary culprit was a
lack of sufficient near-term reserves. When new, unexpected issues were
discovered, the project simply didn't have the resources on hand to properly
address them. At the time, the project components were 85% complete, while
approximately $3.5 billion (of the initial $5.1 billion estimate) had already
been spent.

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The 18 segments of James Webb in the laboratory, after completed assembly and
all coatings have been ... [+] applied. From the zero-gravity environment of
space, these individual segments must form a perfect single plane to within a 20
nanometer tolerance. The gold is visually striking, but there's very little of
it: about 4 grams, total.

NASA/Chris Gunn

So how did we wind up with nearly a $9 billion mission? It’s important to look
at the findings of that Independent Comprehensive Review Panel from 2010. They
concluded that James Webb could be launched in late 2015, for a total cost of
$6.5 billion, but only if an extra $250 million were provided in both 2011 and
2012. The panel was unambiguous in stating that this was the earliest and least
expensive launch plan for James Webb, and that any delay in funding would result
in a more expensive mission.

Of course, those additional funds were not provided, and that caused a large
number of layoffs, as the personnel needed to complete the job — with the
knowledge and experience they had gained from working on it thus far — were not
kept on. Components were delayed as a result. As the people who were working on
it found other jobs, it became clear that completing James Webb would become far
more expensive and would experience initial delays. There would be an extra
~$1.5 billion required to complete the telescope due to the delay and many extra
years, and approximately $800 million ($0.8 billion) was rolled into the cost to
support the 5 years of operation that James Webb’s primary mission required.

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NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope sits inside Chamber A at NASA’s Johnson Space
Center in Houston ... [+] after having completed its cryogenic testing on Nov.
18, 2017. This marked the telescope’s final cryogenic testing, and it ensured
the observatory is ready for the frigid, airless environment of space. Other
early tests, like vibration testing, did not go according to plan.

NASA/CHRIS GUNN

In the time since then, the technologies that needed to be developed were
developed, but there were setbacks along the way. During vibration testing,
which simulates launch conditions for the spacecraft, screws came loose and fell
out, along with washers, requiring a series of unanticipated interventions.
During a test where they unfurled the 5-layer sunshield, it caught on a portion
of the spacecraft element, tearing slightly before the test was aborted. Leaky
valves were found along the way, and many other obstacles were encountered. It
seemed, to an external observer, that everything that could go wrong did go
wrong.

But all throughout this time, legitimate progress was still being made. The
mirrors were completed and both the primary and secondary elements completed
testing without a hitch. The scientific instruments were completed and
integrated, and electronics and computer systems tests have been successful so
far. The aforementioned problems were identified and addressed. In science, as
in life, it isn’t important to get everything right the first time; it’s
important to get it right in the end.

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Vibration testing of spacecraft, such as NASA's James Webb, is a necessity to
ensure that the ... [+] spacecraft and all of its components can survive the
launch process intact and fully functional. Crewed and uncrewed missions alike
must survive this testing, which has been applied to Webb in a number of phases.

NASA / Chris Gunn

And now, at the start of 2021, we’re almost at the finish line. This past year,
despite the worldwide pandemic, saw James Webb achieve a number of important
milestones.



 * In March of 2020, they used gravity-offsetting equipment to simulate how the
   telescope would unfurl in space, achieving a 100% successful mirror
   deployment.
 * In May of that year, the entire assembled observatory was folded into its
   launch position for the first time. It was explicitly engineered to fit and
   pack within a 5.4 meter (17.8 feet) section of an Ariane 5 rocket, and it
   achieved that milestone perfectly.
 * In July, it underwent a comprehensive systems check, where every piece of
   software and every electrical component was tested for 15 consecutive days:
   its first such test since being fully assembled. Every single component
   passed.
 * In August, they demonstrated that the commands sent from the Mission
   Operations Center at the Space Telescope Science Institute could be
   successfully connected to the Deep Space Network and to the spacecraft, with
   the actual flight hardware and the ground system passing all of the requisite
   tests.
 * And, in October of 2020, a vibration and acoustic test was completed,
   followed by a “lights out” inspection. Unlike the previous vibration tests,
   everything was successful this time.



ADVERTISEMENT



After a vibration and acoustic test is completed, a "lights out" inspection
occurs, as any possible ... [+] contamination is easier to find in the dark.
NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has been subject to a number of these tests
over the past few years, with the telescope passing the final test, concluded in
October of 2020, in every way.

NASA / Chris Gunn

The successes have continued since then. After its successful environmental
tests, it underwent post-environmental testing. The spacecraft bus deployments,
which serve as a trial run for its deployments in space, were successfully
tested and completed in November. The final test and deployment of the 5-layer
sunshield, a component that’s entirely unique to James Webb, was completed
(successfully) in December.

With 2021 now upon us, the moment of truth — launch and deployment in space —
quickly approaches. There are only a few steps remaining, and they’re all slated
to occur on or ahead of schedule this year. The next test will be a final
comprehensive systems check: the fifth such test to be performed. If all goes
well, it should be complete by the end of next month or earlier. In March, the
first observing proposals will have their reviews completed, so the initial
(what we call “cycle 1”) scientific program for James Webb can be established at
that time. The sunshield will be folded and stowed for the last time, and then a
second launch readiness exercise will be conducted; this should be complete by
the end of March.

ADVERTISEMENT



The process of unfurling and tensioning the 5-layer sunshield is shown here. The
most important test ... [+] of this sunshield's deployment was completed in
December of 2020, and only final tests and checks remain before the spacecraft
is declared ready for launch.

NASA / James Webb Space Telescope team

By the end of May, the very last Deployable Tower Assembly test will be
complete, ensuring that Webb’s mirrors and instruments can be lifted to a safe
distance above the lower sunshield and spacecraft element. That “gap” will be
required to enable the main elements of the telescope to be cooled to the
appropriate temperatures, which is required to ensure that James Webb can
function at the infrared wavelengths it needs to conduct its scientific mission.

And then, in July, the observatory will be stowed for the final time. It will
undergo a final review and launch-readiness exercise at the Northrop-Grumman
park in California, and then in August will be transported to the launch site in
French Guyana. Once there, final (routine) tests will be performed, and then the
spacecraft will be packaged into the Ariane 5 rocket which will launch it into
space. So long as the weather, temperature, and other conditions cooperate, we
have a nominal launch date for James Webb: October 31, 2021.

ADVERTISEMENT



NASA's James Webb Space Telescope is shown in its fully showed configuration.
This is the same ... [+] configuration it will have upon being loaded into the
Ariane V rocket for launch. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists were
able to complete vital testing on James Webb, and we are now on track for an
October launch.

Northrop Grumman

If the weather doesn’t cooperate, that isn’t a dealbreaker; there’s a launch
window for more than a week on either side of that date that would still be just
fine for a launch. If we miss this window, another one will recur after only a
few weeks.

Although I was only able to obtain launch window data for the 18 month period
from July 2018 to December of 2019, the physics of launching a fully loaded
Ariane 5 rocket remains very similar from year to year. As you can see (below),
there are many launch windows that will work, and there are no gaps of more than
a month at any point in time.

ADVERTISEMENT



Although the data shown in this graph shows the duration of the launch window on
each day throughout ... [+] a particular 18-month window, the physics of
launching a rocket does not change on a year-to-year basis, and so similar (but
not identical) figures are expected around the October 31, 2021 window.

NASA/STScI/H. Hammel (private communication)

Assuming the telescope launches successfully and deploys properly, we can expect
many years of fantastic science from James Webb. In particular, four important
cosmic records are almost certain to be broken in the coming years.



 1. The current record for most distant galaxy, GN-z11, sends us light from a
    time just ~407 million years after the Big Bang. James Webb should see
    through the cosmic dust that Hubble cannot, revealing galaxies that may
    appear as little as 200 million years after the Big Bang.
 2. We should shatter the record for smallest exoplanet atmosphere ever
    measured. Right now, we can get atmospheres for Saturn-sized worlds around
    Sun-like stars, but Webb will get us mini-Neptunes around those same stars,
    and Earth-sized worlds around red dwarfs.
 3. The very first pristine stars — stars made only of hydrogen and helium, the
    elements made in the hot Big Bang — should be discovered by James Webb;
    stellar populations that have eluded us so far.
 4. And as far as direct imaging of exoplanets goes, Webb should reveal planets
    as little as 150% the size of Earth, shattering the present record.



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A rocket launch experiences sonic intensity and vibrations that are 100 times
greater in intensity ... [+] and 20 decibels greater in loudness than the
loudest seats of all at a rock concert. To simulate a rocket launch, both
acoustic and vibrational tests are required.

NASA / ArianeSpace

Although it’s always risky to assume that nothing unforeseen will go wrong from
here on out, the truth is that the most difficult parts of this mission that
humans can control have already been successfully taken care of. Less than 12
months from launch, even during a pandemic, we’re absolutely on or ahead of
schedule in every way to meet the October 31 launch date. Barring an accidental
catastrophe or sabotage of some sort, this telescope is ready to go.

We’re certain that it’s equipped to bring about a revolution in our
understanding of the cosmos, with the most exciting possibility being that it
finds something wholly unexpected and surprising; that’s the best part about
pushing the frontiers of discovery. Once it’s in space, James Webb’s lifetime
should be limited only by the amount of hydrazine rocket fuel on board, required
to keep the spacecraft in its quasi-stable orbit and to enable it to point at
its targets. With enough fuel for a 5-year mission, some estimate that excellent
fuel management could extend it to a 10-year mission, where the option to refuel
hasn’t been ruled out yet.

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With extreme confidence, we can now state that 2021 will be the year that the
James Webb Space Telescope finally launches. What comes after that will depend
on what’s out there in the Universe.


Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. 
Ethan Siegel



I am a Ph.D. astrophysicist, author, and science communicator, who professes
physics and astronomy at various colleges. I have won numerous awards for
science writing

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