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RED SEA TENSIONS RISK SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INFLATION, OECD WARNS

BY JENNI REID,CNBC • PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 5, 2024 • UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 5, 2024 AT
7:21 AM



Ahmed Gomaa | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

A cargo ship travels on the Suez Canal in Ismailia Province, Egypt, Jan. 13,
2024. 

 * Higher shipping costs due to the Red Sea crisis could add 5 percentage points
   to OECD member import costs, the Paris-based group said Monday.
 * Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, told CNBC that recent data on
   inflation has nonetheless been encouraging, and shipping-driven inflation
   pressures remain a risk rather than its base case.
 * Tiemen Meester, chief operating officer at Dubai-based logistics firm DP
   World, said the current situation was in a "steady state" and that cargo
   flows were catching up, but networks had already adjusted.

24/7 San Diego news stream: Watch NBC 7 free wherever you are

Elevated shipping costs as a result of ongoing tensions in the Red Sea could
impede the global fight against inflation, the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development said Monday.

The Paris-based group estimates that the recent 100% rise in seaborne freight
rates could increase import price inflation across its 38 member countries by
nearly 5 percentage points if they persist.

> Get top local stories in San Diego delivered to you every morning. Sign up for
> NBC San Diego's News Headlines newsletter.

That could add 0.4 percentage points to overall price rises after a year, the
OECD said in its latest economic outlook.

In late 2023, major shipping firms began diverting their vessels away from
Egypt's Suez Canal, the quickest trade route between Europe and Asia, due to a
spate of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen. Tensions remain
high, with the navies of countries including the United States involved in the
conflict.

Ships are taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route around the southern coast of
Africa, which increases journey times by between 30% and 50%, taking capacity
out of the global market.


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However, the OECD also notes that the shipping industry had excess capacity last
year, a result of new container ships being ordered, which should moderate cost
pressures.

Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, told CNBC on Monday that a
sustained increase in inflation as a result of the latest crisis is a risk, but
not the group's base case.

"It's something we're watching closely ... we have seen an increase in shipping
prices, if that were to continue for for an extended period, then that would
feed through into consumer price inflation. But at the moment, we don't
anticipate that to be the case," Lombardelli said.

According to Tiemen Meester, chief operating officer at Dubai-based logistics
firm DP World, European imports are presenting the biggest challenge and have
seen significant delays to cargo that was already en route.

"Unfortunately, there's higher cost in the inefficiencies in the network, so
ultimately, the rates are going up. But it's actually nowhere near to where they
were at their peaks during Covid ... How that costs will find its way to the
consumer, we'll have to see," Meester told CNBC, describing it as a "short-term
problem."

"I think kind of where we are now is a steady state, because the networks have
adjusted and cargo is flowing, bookings are taking, it just takes more time," he
added.

The OECD's Lombardelli said that overall there has been positive data among its
members in recent months showing inflation coming down consistently. This will
help rebuild real incomes and support consumption, she said.

The OECD's 38 members include the United States, United Kingdom, Australia,
Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, Israel, Turkey, Japan and South Korea.

Its latest outlook hiked its economic growth forecast for the U.S. by 0.6
percentage points from its previous November estimate, to 2.1% for this year.
Its euro zone outlook was lowered by 0.3 percentage points, to 0.6%, while its
U.K. outlook was flat at 0.7%.

"We've seen positive news in the U.S., we're seeing inflation coming down now,
but we're not seeing a big cost in terms of the labor market there," Lombardelli
told CNBC.

"Growth is looking stronger, and inflation is coming down. So you'll see a
rebuilding of real incomes there in the U.S., and that will support consumption
growth."

Europe has been hit harder by an energy price shock, the impact of inflation on
real incomes and consumption, and its greater dependence on bank-based financing
amid tighter montary policy, she said.

In the medium-term, the OECD expects a greater drag on growth from its aging
workforce.

The OECD nonetheless sees the European Central Bank as being in a position to
cut interest rates in the second half of the year if current trends continue,
Lombardelli said.


ALSO ON CNBC

 * Turkey's inflation sees biggest monthly jump since August, near 65% year-on
   year
 * Unemployment rate of Black men rose in January, underscoring continued
   inequality
 * U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected

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