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THE IPCC SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS (SSPS): EXPLAINED, EVALUATED, REPLACED?



120 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2024

See all articles by ivo welch


IVO WELCH

affiliation not provided to SSRN


ABSTRACT

Shared socioeconomic pathways are perhaps the most influential economic policy
analyses today. Yet, their design is problematic. Moreover, all five SSP
baseline scenarios are based on empirically exceedingly improbable scenarios. An
alternative — econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT
components — suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected
radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable high plausibility range
from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.



Keywords: Climate, IPCC, AR6, SSP



Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

welch, ivo, The Ipcc Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (Ssps): Explained, Evaluated,
Replaced?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4724099 or
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4724099


IVO WELCH (CONTACT AUTHOR)

AFFILIATION NOT PROVIDED TO SSRN ( EMAIL )

No Address Available



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70 REFERENCES

 1. Tamma Carleton
    Valuing the global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for
    adaptation costs and benefits
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics , volume 137 , p. 2037 - 2105 Posted:
    2022
    
 2. John H Cochrane
    How big is the random walk in GNP?
    Journal of Political Economy , volume 96 , p. 893 - 920 Posted: 1988
    
 3. Barry Commoner
    CLOSING CIRCLE-REPLY
    Science and Public Affairs-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , volume 28
    Posted: 1972
    
 4. Rob Dellink , Jean Chateau , Elisa Lanzi , Bertrand Magné
    Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    Global Environmental Change , volume 42 , p. 200 - 214 Posted: 2017
    

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