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 1. 
 2. Market Updates


US TO LEAD GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2025, WELLS FARGO SAYS

Policy support and steady growth position the US as a global economic powerhouse
next year


By Candyd Mendoza
12 Dec 2024
Share


The United States is expected to lead global economy in 2025, according to Wells
Fargo Investment Institute’s (WFII) newly released report.

The report predicts robust domestic expansion and broader equity market
participation in the year ahead, highlighting the economy’s resilience amid
international headwinds, particularly in Europe, China, and emerging markets.
WFII forecast US GDP growth to reach 2.5% by year-end 2025.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment
Management, attributed this optimistic outlook to improving economic
fundamentals and favorable policy developments.



“We continue to believe that equity markets look attractive for 2025, with
broader sector leadership and participation, thanks to improving fundamentals
and a policy tailwind,” Cronk said in the report. “The incoming administration
and congressional leaders want a fast start, with likely policy priorities
including extending tax benefits, deregulation, tariffs, and tighter border
control. We expect that these policies will support our guidance.”

WFII’s report projected the S&P 500 Index to close 2025 within a range of 6,500
to 6,700, with earnings emerging as the primary driver of equity prices. The
financials, communication services, industrials, and energy sectors are expected
to perform strongly, with small-cap equities also expected to gain.

In addition to robust GDP growth, WFII forecast inflation to average 3.3% in
2025. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policies will likely maintain short-term rates
between 4.00% and 4.25%, while long-term Treasury yields are projected to rise
to between 4.50% and 5.25%.

Investment strategies recommended by WFII include preparing for liquidity,
focusing on cyclical recovery, and exploring opportunities in artificial
intelligence and US-centered investments.

Read next: Tougher than 2008: How today's mortgage crisis is testing the
industry



Global equities are expected to see returns primarily driven by earnings growth,
while real assets like commodities could benefit from slow supply growth and
rebounding demand. Fixed-income markets may experience rising long-term rates
alongside economic growth. Alternative investments are likely to gain traction
from increased merger and acquisition activity and lower borrowing costs.

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