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2600:9000:2680:4e00:2:2fdd:fc0:93a1  Public Scan

Submitted URL: https://url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/oP-8COV8C6V2BJSrVdoZ?domain=lseg.com
Effective URL: https://www.lseg.com/en/insights/data-analytics/sentiment-as-risk-indicator-when-does-it-work-best?utm_source=Eloqua&...
Submission: On August 01 via manual from GB — Scanned from GB

Form analysis 2 forms found in the DOM

POST /content/lseg/en_us/insights/forms/insights-subscription/jcr:content/root/form_copy.ewp.json

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            <h2 class="Heading Heading--smallCaps u-typographySmallCaps"> Stay updated</h2>
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of&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Thailand&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Thailand&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Timor-Leste&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Timor-Leste&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Togo&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Togo&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Tokelau&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Tokelau&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Tonga&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Tonga&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Trinidad and Tobago&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Trinidad and Tobago&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Tunisia&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Tunisia&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Turkey&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Turkey&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Turkmenistan&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Turkmenistan&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Turks and Caicos Islands&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Turks and Caicos Islands&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Tuvalu&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Tuvalu&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Uganda&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Uganda&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;United Arab Emirates&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;United Arab Emirates&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;United Kingdom&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;United Kingdom&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;United States&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;United States&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Uruguay&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Uruguay&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;US Minor Outlying Islands&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;US Minor Outlying Islands&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Uzbekistan&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Uzbekistan&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Vanuatu&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Vanuatu&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Vietnam&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Vietnam&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Virgin Islands (British)&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Virgin Islands (British)&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Virgin Islands (U.S.)&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Virgin Islands (U.S.)&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Wallis and Futuna Islands&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Wallis and Futuna Islands&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Western Sahara&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Western Sahara&quot;},{&quot;value&quot;:&quot;Zambia&quot;,&quot;label&quot;:&quot;Zambia&quot;}]"
          data-placeholder="false" data-placeholder-text="form-select-placeholder-option" data-rehydratable="FormNew.SelectControl" data-required="true" data-tabindex="0" data-error-message="Select a country"><label
            for="select-country-a1a2089c"><select class="" id="select-country-a1a2089c" name="country" required="" tabindex="0" role="selectcontrol" aria-describedby="error-select-country-a1a2089c">
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="">Select one</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Aland Islands">Aland Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Albania">Albania</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Algeria">Algeria</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="American Samoa">American Samoa</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Andorra">Andorra</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Angola">Angola</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Anguilla">Anguilla</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Antarctica">Antarctica</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Antigua and Barbuda">Antigua and Barbuda</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Argentina ">Argentina </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Armenia">Armenia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Aruba">Aruba</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Australia ">Australia </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Austria">Austria</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Azerbaijan">Azerbaijan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bahamas">Bahamas</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bahrain">Bahrain</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bangladesh">Bangladesh</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Barbados">Barbados</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Belgium">Belgium</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Belize">Belize</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Benin">Benin</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bermuda">Bermuda</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bhutan">Bhutan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bolivia">Bolivia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bosnia and Herzegovina">Bosnia and Herzegovina</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Botswana">Botswana</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bouvet Island">Bouvet Island</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Brazil">Brazil</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="British Indian Ocean Territory">British Indian Ocean Territory</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Brunei Darussalam">Brunei Darussalam</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bulgaria">Bulgaria</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Burkina Faso">Burkina Faso</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Burundi">Burundi</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cambodia">Cambodia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cameroon">Cameroon</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Canada">Canada</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cape Verde">Cape Verde</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cayman Islands">Cayman Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Chad">Chad</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Chile">Chile</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="China">China</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Christmas Island">Christmas Island</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cocos (Keeling) Islands">Cocos (Keeling) Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Colombia">Colombia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Comoros">Comoros</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Congo">Congo</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Congo, The Democratic Republic of the">Congo, The Democratic Republic of the</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cook Islands">Cook Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Costa Rica">Costa Rica</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cote D'Ivoire">Cote D'Ivoire</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Croatia">Croatia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cyprus">Cyprus</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Czech Republic">Czech Republic</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Denmark">Denmark</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Djibouti">Djibouti</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Dominica">Dominica</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Dominican Republic">Dominican Republic</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ecuador">Ecuador</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Egypt">Egypt</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="El Salvador">El Salvador</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Equatorial Guinea">Equatorial Guinea</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Eritrea">Eritrea</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Estonia">Estonia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ethiopia ">Ethiopia </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Falkland Islands (Malvinas)">Falkland Islands (Malvinas)</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Faroe Islands">Faroe Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Fiji">Fiji</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Finland">Finland</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="France">France</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Guiana">French Guiana</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Polynesia">French Polynesia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Southern Territories">French Southern Territories</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gabon">Gabon</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gambia">Gambia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Georgia">Georgia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Germany">Germany</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ghana">Ghana</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gibraltar">Gibraltar</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Greece">Greece</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Greenland">Greenland</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Grenada">Grenada</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guadeloupe">Guadeloupe</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guam">Guam</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guatemala">Guatemala</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guinea">Guinea</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guinea-Bissau">Guinea-Bissau</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guernsey">Guernsey</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guyana">Guyana</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Heard and McDonald Islands">Heard and McDonald Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Vatican City State (Holy See)">Holy See (Vatican City State) </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Honduras">Honduras</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Hong Kong">Hong Kong</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Hungary">Hungary</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Iceland">Iceland</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="India">India</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Indonesia">Indonesia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ireland">Ireland</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Isle of Man">Isle of Man</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Israel">Israel</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Italy">Italy</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jamaica ">Jamaica </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Japan">Japan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jersey">Jersey</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jordan">Jordan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kazakhstan">Kazakhstan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kenya">Kenya</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kiribati">Kiribati</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Korea, Republic of">Korea, Republic of</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kuwait">Kuwait</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kyrgyzstan">Kyrgyzstan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lao People's Democratic Rep">Lao People's Democratic Rep</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Latvia">Latvia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lebanon">Lebanon</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lesotho">Lesotho</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Liberia">Liberia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Liechtenstein">Liechtenstein</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lithuania">Lithuania</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Luxembourg">Luxembourg</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Macau">Macau</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Madagascar">Madagascar</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malawi">Malawi</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malaysia">Malaysia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Maldives">Maldives</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malta">Malta</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Marshall Islands">Marshall Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Martinique">Martinique</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mauritania">Mauritania</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mauritius">Mauritius</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mayotte">Mayotte</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mexico">Mexico</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Micronesia, Federated States">Micronesia, Federated States</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Moldova, Republic of">Moldova, Republic of</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Monaco ">Monaco </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mongolia">Mongolia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Montenegro">Montenegro</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Montserrat">Montserrat</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Morocco">Morocco</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mozambique">Mozambique</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Namibia">Namibia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nauru">Nauru</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nepal">Nepal</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Netherlands">Netherlands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Netherlands Antilles">Netherlands Antilles</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="New Caledonia">New Caledonia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="New Zealand">New Zealand</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Niger">Niger</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nigeria">Nigeria</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Niue">Niue</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Norfolk Island">Norfolk Island</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Northern Mariana Islands ">Northern Mariana Islands </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Norway">Norway</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Oman">Oman</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Pakistan">Pakistan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Palau">Palau</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Palestinian Territory, Occupied">Palestinian Territory, Occupied</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Panama">Panama</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Papua New Guinea">Papua New Guinea</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Paraguay">Paraguay</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Peru">Peru</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Philippines">Philippines</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Pitcairn">Pitcairn</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Poland">Poland</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Portugal">Portugal</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Puerto Rico">Puerto Rico</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Qatar">Qatar</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Republic of North Macedonia">Republic of North Macedonia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Reunion">Reunion</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Romania">Romania</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Rwanda">Rwanda</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Saint Helena">Saint Helena</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Saint Kitts and Nevis">Saint Kitts and Nevis</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Saint Lucia">Saint Lucia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Netherlands Antilles">Saint Martin</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Saint Pierre and Miquelon">Saint Pierre and Miquelon</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Samoa">Samoa</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="San Marino">San Marino</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Sao Tome and Principe">Sao Tome and Principe</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Saudi Arabia">Saudi Arabia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Senegal">Senegal</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Serbia">Serbia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Seychelles">Seychelles</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Sierra Leone">Sierra Leone</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Singapore">Singapore</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Slovakia">Slovakia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Slovenia">Slovenia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Solomon Islands">Solomon Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="South Africa">South Africa</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Spain">Spain</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Sri Lanka">Sri Lanka</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Sth Georgia &amp; Sth Sandwich Is">Sth Georgia &amp; Sth Sandwich Is</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="St Vincent and the Grenadines ">St Vincent and the Grenadines </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Suriname">Suriname</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Svalbard and Jan Mayen">Svalbard and Jan Mayen</option>
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              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tajikistan ">Tajikistan </option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tanzania, United Republic of">Tanzania, United Republic of</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Thailand">Thailand</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Timor-Leste">Timor-Leste</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Togo">Togo</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tokelau">Tokelau</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tonga">Tonga</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Trinidad and Tobago">Trinidad and Tobago</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tunisia">Tunisia</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Turkey">Turkey</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Turkmenistan">Turkmenistan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Turks and Caicos Islands">Turks and Caicos Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Tuvalu">Tuvalu</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Uganda">Uganda</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="United Arab Emirates">United Arab Emirates</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="United Kingdom">United Kingdom</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="United States">United States</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Uruguay">Uruguay</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="US Minor Outlying Islands">US Minor Outlying Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Uzbekistan">Uzbekistan</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Vanuatu">Vanuatu</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Vietnam">Vietnam</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Virgin Islands (British)">Virgin Islands (British)</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Virgin Islands (U.S.)">Virgin Islands (U.S.)</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Wallis and Futuna Islands">Wallis and Futuna Islands</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Western Sahara">Western Sahara</option>
              <option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Zambia">Zambia</option>
            </select><span class="FormNewSelectControl-labelText Typestack--p1">Country/territory</span><span class="FormNewSelectControl-arrow"><svg class="Icon Icon--s" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 32 32"
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 1. Home
 2. LSEG Insights
 3. Data & Analytics
 4. Sentiment as a risk indicator: when does it work best?

Data & Analytics Insights


SENTIMENT AS A RISK INDICATOR: WHEN DOES IT WORK BEST?

July 09, 2024
8 min


Dr Svetlana Borovkova

Head of Quant Modelling at Probability & Partners and Finance Professor at Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam
linkedin



In this insight, part of a wider series in collaboration with Probability &
Partners, we show how sentiment is a powerful risk indicator in various areas,
including individual stocks, commodities, sectors, and global market indices, at
different time scales. In this second insight we examine:

 1. How sentiment is most effective as an early warning signal of risk, on a
    global scale;
 2. The difference between slow-burn risks and sudden shocks, through three
    major examples – Covid-19, 2007-2008 financial crisis, the 2023 banking
    turmoil;
 3. The value of news sentiment signal in offering invaluable risk information.


SENTIMENT AS AN EARLY WARNING RISK INDICATOR

The previous insight in this series explored the impact of major economic and
political events on media sentiment in global stock markets. We observed that
negative events trigger a faster and stronger sentiment response, making it an
excellent risk indicator. This has been a consistent finding throughout our
decade-long research on the role of sentiment in finance and investing.

Our studies have shown that sentiment is a powerful risk indicator in various
areas, including individual stocks, commodities, sectors, and global market
indices, and at different time scales. However, sentiment is most effective as
an early warning signal of risk when underlying problems slowly intensify over a
long period, becoming increasingly prominent and severe.

The onset of Covid-19 in early 2020 serves as a key example of sentiment
indicators' effectiveness. During January and February 2020, sentiment
indicators for global stock indices (including the S&P500, FTSE100, STOXX50, and
STOXX200) showed a gradual but significant decline. This decrease was different
in its speed and scale compared to typical downward trends. By February 2020,
the decline had notably accelerated, coinciding with the increased mentions of
words like "coronavirus" or "Covid" in news reports. However, for a long time,
this sentiment decline did not coincide with any noticeable changes in the stock
markets. This dramatically changed on February 19, when all major stock markets
crashed amidst growing Covid-19 worries, and both sentiment and stock prices
tumbled in sync.  


FIGURE 1: S&P500 CLOSING PRICE VS SENTIMENT LEVEL, 2019-2020

A Flourish chart


NEWS SENTIMENT INDICATOR

The 2007-2008 financial crisis serves as another, more distant, example of
sentiment indicators’ predictive power. The Sentiment Systemic Risk indicator
(SenSR), an aggregated negative sentiment measure related to Systemically
Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), monitors the perceived risk associated
with the global financial system using LSEG News Analytics. News sentiment
indicator showed a gradual but consistent increase in perceived risk over
several months in 2007. Other indicators used for this purpose, like the VIX or
LIBOR-OIS spread, didn’t react until the collapse of Lehman Brothers, at which
point the financial crisis was already well underway. A similar early warning
increase in news sentiment was also observed before the European debt crisis of
2011.


FIGURE 2: SENSR (SENTIMENT SYSTEMIC RISK INDICATOR) (BLUE) VS VIX (BLACK),
2006-2014

A Flourish chart

These examples highlight the significant advantage of using sentiment signals
from news sources. These signals, once they have been correctly processed and
cleared of any noise, can be used to monitor the sentiment around major stock
and commodity markets. They serve as an early warning system for risk,
potentially alerting investors to withdraw from relevant stock markets or
impacted sectors prior to any drop in price.

However, could there be instances where sentiment as an early warning indicator
isn’t as effective? Consider a scenario where a negative event happens abruptly
and without warning. In such situations, the sentiment signal might respond to
the event (albeit very quickly, i.e. intraday) rather than anticipating it,
unless there was some prior information leak. Therefore, the main distinction in
sentiment’s early warning potential is dependent on the nature of the risk
event: ‘slow burn’ versus ‘sudden death’.


NEWS SENTIMENT AND THE 2023 BANKING TURMOIL

The 2023 banking turmoil is an excellent illustration of this. Let us look at
how news sentiment reacted to the failure of several major US and European banks
in 2023. Figure 3 shows the financial sector sentiment (i.e., the negative of
SenSR) throughout 2023, highlighting a significant decline in sentiment in
March, coinciding with the failure of several US banks (March 8: Silvergate
Bank, March 10: Silicon Valley Bank, March 12: Signature Bank, and March 15 and
19: looming failure and subsequent takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS). To gain a
clearer understanding, let us focus on the events of March (Figure 4).


FIGURE 3: FINANCIAL SYSTEM SENTIMENT, 2023

A Flourish chart


FIGURE 4: FINANCIAL SYSTEM SENTIMENT, FEBRUARY-MARCH 2023

A Flourish chart

The downturn in sentiment within the financial sector started on March 1, 2023.
By March 3, sentiment had declined so dramatically and rapidly that the
impending banking turmoil was undeniably evident. This served as a valuable
signal for investors to decrease their holdings in banks and other financial
institutions, and for global financial regulators to pay attention. Even if
there were initial doubts, by March 5, the sentiment associated with SIFIs made
it glaringly apparent that a serious event was unfolding. From March 8, the
decline intensified, pushing sentiment into negative territory.

Interestingly, none of the impacted banks, even a significant one like Credit
Suisse, were included in this list.

So, what happened between March 1, when the sentiment started to fall, and March
10, when the first bank collapsed? On March 1, Silvergate Bank disclosed in a
regulatory filing that it was at risk of losing its well-capitalised bank status
and faced risks to its ability to continue operating. It’s remarkable that a
regulatory filing from a relatively minor bank could influence sentiment about
the global financial system, indicating a higher level of overall risk – an
event that might have escaped the attention of many investors. On March 8, SVB
announced a sell-off of bonds, which triggered a subsequent bank run and further
contributed to the decline in news sentiment.

If one were to consider solely the banks’ share price, it could appear that the
crisis only spread to the global financial system on March 13, when a
significant decline in all US banks’ share prices was observed. However, the
sentiment of the global financial systemhad already signalled this crisis almost
two weeks prior.

The decline in sentiment began to stabilise after March 18, when President Biden
made a reassuring announcement and the Credit Suisse takeover by UBS was
announced. Nevertheless, it took until the end of the summer for news sentiment
to return to its previous normal levels.


CONCLUSION

Both the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis demonstrate the value
of news sentiment signals in detecting “slow-burning” risks on a global scale,
often well before they become apparent in other economic and financial
indicators. The sentiment often declines weeks or even months before the stock
markets react to these risks. On the other hand, abrupt and unforeseen risks can
be detected in sentiment just a few days beforehand, if not at the time of the
event, as demonstrated by the 2023 banking turmoil. Recognising this distinction
when tracking sentiment related to financial markets is crucial. However, in
both cases, sentiment offers invaluable risk information, albeit slightly later
in the latter case.

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