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Submitted URL: https://url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/oP-8COV8C6V2BJSrVdoZ?domain=lseg.com
Effective URL: https://www.lseg.com/en/insights/data-analytics/sentiment-as-risk-indicator-when-does-it-work-best?utm_source=Eloqua&...
Submission: On August 01 via manual from GB — Scanned from GB
Effective URL: https://www.lseg.com/en/insights/data-analytics/sentiment-as-risk-indicator-when-does-it-work-best?utm_source=Eloqua&...
Submission: On August 01 via manual from GB — Scanned from GB
Form analysis
2 forms found in the DOMPOST /content/lseg/en_us/insights/forms/insights-subscription/jcr:content/root/form_copy.ewp.json
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<h2 class="Heading Heading--smallCaps u-typographySmallCaps"> Stay updated</h2>
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<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Albania">Albania</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Algeria">Algeria</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="American Samoa">American Samoa</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Andorra">Andorra</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Angola">Angola</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Anguilla">Anguilla</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Antarctica">Antarctica</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Antigua and Barbuda">Antigua and Barbuda</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Argentina ">Argentina </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Armenia">Armenia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Aruba">Aruba</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Australia ">Australia </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Austria">Austria</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Azerbaijan">Azerbaijan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bahamas">Bahamas</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bahrain">Bahrain</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bangladesh">Bangladesh</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Barbados">Barbados</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Belgium">Belgium</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Belize">Belize</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Benin">Benin</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bermuda">Bermuda</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bhutan">Bhutan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bolivia">Bolivia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bosnia and Herzegovina">Bosnia and Herzegovina</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Botswana">Botswana</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bouvet Island">Bouvet Island</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Brazil">Brazil</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="British Indian Ocean Territory">British Indian Ocean Territory</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Brunei Darussalam">Brunei Darussalam</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Bulgaria">Bulgaria</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Burkina Faso">Burkina Faso</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Burundi">Burundi</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cambodia">Cambodia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cameroon">Cameroon</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Canada">Canada</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cape Verde">Cape Verde</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cayman Islands">Cayman Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Chad">Chad</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Chile">Chile</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="China">China</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Christmas Island">Christmas Island</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cocos (Keeling) Islands">Cocos (Keeling) Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Colombia">Colombia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Comoros">Comoros</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Congo">Congo</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Congo, The Democratic Republic of the">Congo, The Democratic Republic of the</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cook Islands">Cook Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Costa Rica">Costa Rica</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cote D'Ivoire">Cote D'Ivoire</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Croatia">Croatia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Cyprus">Cyprus</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Czech Republic">Czech Republic</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Denmark">Denmark</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Djibouti">Djibouti</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Dominica">Dominica</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Dominican Republic">Dominican Republic</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ecuador">Ecuador</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Egypt">Egypt</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="El Salvador">El Salvador</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Equatorial Guinea">Equatorial Guinea</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Eritrea">Eritrea</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Estonia">Estonia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ethiopia ">Ethiopia </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Falkland Islands (Malvinas)">Falkland Islands (Malvinas)</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Faroe Islands">Faroe Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Fiji">Fiji</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Finland">Finland</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="France">France</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Guiana">French Guiana</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Polynesia">French Polynesia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="French Southern Territories">French Southern Territories</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gabon">Gabon</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gambia">Gambia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Georgia">Georgia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Germany">Germany</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ghana">Ghana</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Gibraltar">Gibraltar</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Greece">Greece</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Greenland">Greenland</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Grenada">Grenada</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guadeloupe">Guadeloupe</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guam">Guam</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guatemala">Guatemala</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guinea">Guinea</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guinea-Bissau">Guinea-Bissau</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guernsey">Guernsey</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Guyana">Guyana</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Heard and McDonald Islands">Heard and McDonald Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Vatican City State (Holy See)">Holy See (Vatican City State) </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Honduras">Honduras</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Hong Kong">Hong Kong</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Hungary">Hungary</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Iceland">Iceland</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="India">India</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Indonesia">Indonesia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Ireland">Ireland</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Isle of Man">Isle of Man</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Israel">Israel</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Italy">Italy</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jamaica ">Jamaica </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Japan">Japan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jersey">Jersey</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Jordan">Jordan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kazakhstan">Kazakhstan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kenya">Kenya</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kiribati">Kiribati</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Korea, Republic of">Korea, Republic of</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kuwait">Kuwait</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Kyrgyzstan">Kyrgyzstan</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lao People's Democratic Rep">Lao People's Democratic Rep</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Latvia">Latvia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lebanon">Lebanon</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lesotho">Lesotho</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Liberia">Liberia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Liechtenstein">Liechtenstein</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Lithuania">Lithuania</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Luxembourg">Luxembourg</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Macau">Macau</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Madagascar">Madagascar</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malawi">Malawi</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malaysia">Malaysia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Maldives">Maldives</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Malta">Malta</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Marshall Islands">Marshall Islands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Martinique">Martinique</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mauritania">Mauritania</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mauritius">Mauritius</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mayotte">Mayotte</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mexico">Mexico</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Micronesia, Federated States">Micronesia, Federated States</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Moldova, Republic of">Moldova, Republic of</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Monaco ">Monaco </option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mongolia">Mongolia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Montenegro">Montenegro</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Montserrat">Montserrat</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Morocco">Morocco</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Mozambique">Mozambique</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Namibia">Namibia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nauru">Nauru</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nepal">Nepal</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Netherlands">Netherlands</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Netherlands Antilles">Netherlands Antilles</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="New Caledonia">New Caledonia</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="New Zealand">New Zealand</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Niger">Niger</option>
<option class="FormNewSelectControl-option" value="Nigeria">Nigeria</option>
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Skip Navigation * LSEG * Data & Analytics * FTSE Russell * London Stock Exchange * FX * LCH * Risk Intelligence Our businesses LSEG * LSEG * Data & Analytics * FTSE Russell * London Stock Exchange * FX * LCH * Risk Intelligence * Our Business Our Business * Analytics Robust, trusted and impactful analytics across a comprehensive universe of assets. * Benchmarks and Indices FTSE Russell provide comprehensive and accurate benchmark and index coverage across asset classes. * Clearing Services Clearing for enhanced risk management, and margin, capital and operational efficiencies via LCH. * Data and Feeds Rich datasets with extensive distribution and data management capabilities. * Equities Trading Unrivalled access to UK, European and global capital markets. * FX Trade FX spot, FX forwards, and FX options using our suite of trading workflows, insights, data and compliance tools. * News and Prices News, reports and insights to inform portfolio performance decisions. * Post Trade Manage risk, optimise your portfolio and access regulatory solutions. * Post Trade Solutions Increase efficiencies with Acadia, Quantile and SwapAgent. * Raise Finance Access to deep pools of capital, to scale and grow your business. * Risk Intelligence Opening a world of possibilities by protecting you from a world of risks. * Regulatory Reporting Reduce operational and regulatory risk through our range of regulatory reporting, reference data, and analytics solutions. * Solutions Solutions BY INDUSTRY * Asset Management * Asset Owners * Central Banks * Corporates * Hedge Funds * Investment Banking * Wealth Management BY ASSET CLASS * Commodities * Derivatives * Equity * Fixed Income * FX * Sustainability Sustainability OUR APPROACH * Sustainability Strategy * Climate Change * Diversity and Inclusion * Governance * Disclosures and reports * LSEG Foundation OUR SOLUTIONS * Sustainable Finance and Investing * Sustainable Finance Data and Analytics * Sustainable Investment Indices * London Stock Exchange – Sustainable finance for London's issuers * Insights & Events Insights & Events * Insights Spark your investment ideas with truly tailored perspectives. * LSEG Events Discover our range of events and webinars around the globe. * Venue and Studio Hire Explore our prestigious offerings; hold memorable events and create your content. * Support Support LEARNING * Learning Centre Elevate expertise on LSEG products with tutorials, webinars and certifications. * Regulatory Reporting Explore our extensive range of trade reporting CISI/CPD accredited courses. 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July 09, 2024 8 min Dr Svetlana Borovkova Head of Quant Modelling at Probability & Partners and Finance Professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam linkedin In this insight, part of a wider series in collaboration with Probability & Partners, we show how sentiment is a powerful risk indicator in various areas, including individual stocks, commodities, sectors, and global market indices, at different time scales. In this second insight we examine: 1. How sentiment is most effective as an early warning signal of risk, on a global scale; 2. The difference between slow-burn risks and sudden shocks, through three major examples – Covid-19, 2007-2008 financial crisis, the 2023 banking turmoil; 3. The value of news sentiment signal in offering invaluable risk information. SENTIMENT AS AN EARLY WARNING RISK INDICATOR The previous insight in this series explored the impact of major economic and political events on media sentiment in global stock markets. We observed that negative events trigger a faster and stronger sentiment response, making it an excellent risk indicator. This has been a consistent finding throughout our decade-long research on the role of sentiment in finance and investing. Our studies have shown that sentiment is a powerful risk indicator in various areas, including individual stocks, commodities, sectors, and global market indices, and at different time scales. However, sentiment is most effective as an early warning signal of risk when underlying problems slowly intensify over a long period, becoming increasingly prominent and severe. The onset of Covid-19 in early 2020 serves as a key example of sentiment indicators' effectiveness. During January and February 2020, sentiment indicators for global stock indices (including the S&P500, FTSE100, STOXX50, and STOXX200) showed a gradual but significant decline. This decrease was different in its speed and scale compared to typical downward trends. By February 2020, the decline had notably accelerated, coinciding with the increased mentions of words like "coronavirus" or "Covid" in news reports. However, for a long time, this sentiment decline did not coincide with any noticeable changes in the stock markets. This dramatically changed on February 19, when all major stock markets crashed amidst growing Covid-19 worries, and both sentiment and stock prices tumbled in sync. FIGURE 1: S&P500 CLOSING PRICE VS SENTIMENT LEVEL, 2019-2020 A Flourish chart NEWS SENTIMENT INDICATOR The 2007-2008 financial crisis serves as another, more distant, example of sentiment indicators’ predictive power. The Sentiment Systemic Risk indicator (SenSR), an aggregated negative sentiment measure related to Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), monitors the perceived risk associated with the global financial system using LSEG News Analytics. News sentiment indicator showed a gradual but consistent increase in perceived risk over several months in 2007. Other indicators used for this purpose, like the VIX or LIBOR-OIS spread, didn’t react until the collapse of Lehman Brothers, at which point the financial crisis was already well underway. A similar early warning increase in news sentiment was also observed before the European debt crisis of 2011. FIGURE 2: SENSR (SENTIMENT SYSTEMIC RISK INDICATOR) (BLUE) VS VIX (BLACK), 2006-2014 A Flourish chart These examples highlight the significant advantage of using sentiment signals from news sources. These signals, once they have been correctly processed and cleared of any noise, can be used to monitor the sentiment around major stock and commodity markets. They serve as an early warning system for risk, potentially alerting investors to withdraw from relevant stock markets or impacted sectors prior to any drop in price. However, could there be instances where sentiment as an early warning indicator isn’t as effective? Consider a scenario where a negative event happens abruptly and without warning. In such situations, the sentiment signal might respond to the event (albeit very quickly, i.e. intraday) rather than anticipating it, unless there was some prior information leak. Therefore, the main distinction in sentiment’s early warning potential is dependent on the nature of the risk event: ‘slow burn’ versus ‘sudden death’. NEWS SENTIMENT AND THE 2023 BANKING TURMOIL The 2023 banking turmoil is an excellent illustration of this. Let us look at how news sentiment reacted to the failure of several major US and European banks in 2023. Figure 3 shows the financial sector sentiment (i.e., the negative of SenSR) throughout 2023, highlighting a significant decline in sentiment in March, coinciding with the failure of several US banks (March 8: Silvergate Bank, March 10: Silicon Valley Bank, March 12: Signature Bank, and March 15 and 19: looming failure and subsequent takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS). To gain a clearer understanding, let us focus on the events of March (Figure 4). FIGURE 3: FINANCIAL SYSTEM SENTIMENT, 2023 A Flourish chart FIGURE 4: FINANCIAL SYSTEM SENTIMENT, FEBRUARY-MARCH 2023 A Flourish chart The downturn in sentiment within the financial sector started on March 1, 2023. By March 3, sentiment had declined so dramatically and rapidly that the impending banking turmoil was undeniably evident. This served as a valuable signal for investors to decrease their holdings in banks and other financial institutions, and for global financial regulators to pay attention. Even if there were initial doubts, by March 5, the sentiment associated with SIFIs made it glaringly apparent that a serious event was unfolding. From March 8, the decline intensified, pushing sentiment into negative territory. Interestingly, none of the impacted banks, even a significant one like Credit Suisse, were included in this list. So, what happened between March 1, when the sentiment started to fall, and March 10, when the first bank collapsed? On March 1, Silvergate Bank disclosed in a regulatory filing that it was at risk of losing its well-capitalised bank status and faced risks to its ability to continue operating. It’s remarkable that a regulatory filing from a relatively minor bank could influence sentiment about the global financial system, indicating a higher level of overall risk – an event that might have escaped the attention of many investors. On March 8, SVB announced a sell-off of bonds, which triggered a subsequent bank run and further contributed to the decline in news sentiment. If one were to consider solely the banks’ share price, it could appear that the crisis only spread to the global financial system on March 13, when a significant decline in all US banks’ share prices was observed. However, the sentiment of the global financial systemhad already signalled this crisis almost two weeks prior. The decline in sentiment began to stabilise after March 18, when President Biden made a reassuring announcement and the Credit Suisse takeover by UBS was announced. Nevertheless, it took until the end of the summer for news sentiment to return to its previous normal levels. CONCLUSION Both the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis demonstrate the value of news sentiment signals in detecting “slow-burning” risks on a global scale, often well before they become apparent in other economic and financial indicators. The sentiment often declines weeks or even months before the stock markets react to these risks. On the other hand, abrupt and unforeseen risks can be detected in sentiment just a few days beforehand, if not at the time of the event, as demonstrated by the 2023 banking turmoil. Recognising this distinction when tracking sentiment related to financial markets is crucial. However, in both cases, sentiment offers invaluable risk information, albeit slightly later in the latter case. LSEG Data & Analytics DATA THAT MOVES THE MARKETS Machine Readable News and quantitative data: a powerful combination for quants and data scientists Read the fact sheet download READ MORE ABOUT * Equities * Market Performance * Markets & Economy * See all Insights MACHINE READABLE NEWS Turn unstructured data into actionable insight and manage risk with our comprehensive news feed solutions. 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