www.spglobal.com Open in urlscan Pro
2a02:26f0:2c::213:6121  Public Scan

Form analysis
1 forms found in the DOM

/marketintelligence/en/search

<form id="search-form" action="/marketintelligence/en/search">
  <div class="search-input-wrapper global-search"> <input type="text" name="q" placeholder=""> <span class="search-input__svg"> <svg data-gtm-action="Main Navigation" data-gtm-category="Navigation" data-gtm-label="Search" viewBox="0 0 17.5 17.5">
        <path d="M12.5,11h-0.8l-0.3-0.3c1-1.1,1.6-2.6,1.6-4.2C13,2.9,10.1,0,6.5,0S0,2.9,0,6.5S2.9,13,6.5,13c1.6,0,3.1-0.6,4.2-1.6l0.3,0.3v0.8l5,5l1.5-1.5L12.5,11z M6.5,11C4,11,2,9,2,6.5S4,2,6.5,2S11,4,11,6.5S9,11,6.5,11z"></path>
      </svg> </span> </div>
</form>

Text Content

CUSTOMER LOGINS

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our
extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the
product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins


MY LOGINS


All Customer Logins
S&P Global Market Intelligence

 * S&P Global
 * S&P Dow Jones Indices
 * S&P Global Market Intelligence
 * S&P Global Mobility
 * S&P Global Commodity Insights
 * S&P Global Ratings
 * S&P Global Sustainable1

Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings
Investor Relations
 * Investor Relations Overview
 * Investor Presentations
 * Investor Fact Book
 * News Releases
 * Quarterly Earnings
 * SEC Filings & Reports
 * Executive Committee
 * Corporate Governance
 * Merger Information
 * Stock & Dividends
 * Shareholder Services
 * Contact Investor Relations

Languages
 * English
 * 中文
 * 日本語
 * 한국어
 * Português
 * Español
 * ไทย

About
 * About Us
 * Contact Us
 * Email Subscription Center
 * Media Center
 * Glossary

Product Login
 * Who We Serve
 * Solutions
 * News & Insights
 * Events
 * Product Login
   
 * Request Follow Up
   


 * Who We Serve
    
   Academia
   Commercial Banking
   Corporations
    
   Government & Regulatory Agencies
   Insurance
   Investment & Global Banking
    
   Investment Management
   Private Equity
   Professional Services
 * Solutions
   WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
   Capital Formation
   Credit and Risk Solutions
   Data & Distribution
   Economics & Country Risk
   Sustainability
   Financial Technology Solutions
    
   Issuer & IR Solutions
   Lending Solutions
   Post Trade Processing
   Private Markets
   Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
   Supply Chain
   PRODUCTS
   S&P Capital IQ Pro
   S&P Global Marketplace
   China Credit Analytics
   Climate Credit Analytics
   Credit Analytics
   RatingsDirect ®
   RatingsXpress ®
   451 Research
   See More S&P Global Solutions
    
   Capital Access
   Corporate Actions
   KY3P ®
   EDM
   PMI™
   BD Corporate
   Bond Pricing
   ChartIQ
 * News & Insights
   CONTENT
   Latest Headlines
   Special Features
   Blog
   Research
   Videos
   Infographics
   Newsletters
   Client Case Studies
   PODCASTS
   Economics & Country Risk
   IR in Focus
   Maritime and Trade Talk
   Masters of Risk
   Next in Tech
   Private Markets 360°
   Street Talk
   The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights
   See All Episodes
   SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
   Differentiated Data
   Banking & Insurance
   Energy
   Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
   Metals & Mining
   Technology, Media, & Telecoms
   Investment Research
   Sector Coverage
   Expert Directory
   More Ways We Can Help
   NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
   Credit & Risk
   Economics & Country Risk
   Financial Services
   Liquidity Crunch
   Maritime & Trade
   M&A
   Private Markets
   Sustainability & Climate
   Technology
   See More
 * Events
   All Events
   In-Person
   Webinars
   Webinar Replays
 * Product Login
   PLATFORMS
   S&P Capital IQ Pro
   S&P Capital IQ
   S&P Global China Credit Analytics
   OTHER PRODUCTS
   Credit Analytics
   Panjiva
   Money Market Directories
    
   Research Online
   451 Research
   See All Product Logins
 * Request Follow Up

Investor Relations
 * Investor Relations Overview
 * Investor Presentations
 * Investor Fact Book
 * News Releases
 * Quarterly Earnings
 * SEC Filings & Reports
 * Executive Committee
 * Corporate Governance
 * Merger Information
 * Stock & Dividends
 * Shareholder Services
 * Contact Investor Relations

Languages
 * English
 * 中文
 * 日本語
 * 한국어
 * Português
 * Español
 * ไทย

About
 * About Us
 * Contact Us
 * Email Subscription Center
 * Media Center
 * Glossary

Product Login

 *  
    * Academia
    * Commercial Banking
    * Corporations
   
    
    * Government & Regulatory Agencies
    * Insurance
    * Investment & Global Banking
   
    
    * Investment Management
    * Private Equity
    * Professional Services

 * WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
    * Capital Formation
    * Credit and Risk Solutions
    * Data & Distribution
    * Economics & Country Risk
    * Sustainability
    * Financial Technology Solutions
   
    
    * Issuer & IR Solutions
    * Lending Solutions
    * Post Trade Processing
    * Private Markets
    * Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
    * Supply Chain
   
   PRODUCTS
    * S&P Capital IQ Pro
    * S&P Global Marketplace
    * China Credit Analytics
    * Climate Credit Analytics
    * Credit Analytics
    * RatingsDirect ®
    * RatingsXpress ®
    * 451 Research
   
   See More S&P Global Solutions
    
    * Capital Access
    * Corporate Actions
    * KY3P ®
    * EDM
    * PMI™
    * BD Corporate
    * Bond Pricing
    * ChartIQ

 * CONTENT
    * Latest Headlines
    * Special Features
    * Blog
    * Research
    * Videos
    * Infographics
    * Newsletters
    * Client Case Studies
   
   PODCASTS
    * Economics & Country Risk
    * IR in Focus
    * Maritime and Trade Talk
    * Masters of Risk
    * Next in Tech
    * Private Markets 360°
    * Street Talk
    * The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights
   
   SEE ALL EPISODES
   SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
    * Differentiated Data
    * Banking & Insurance
    * Energy
    * Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
    * Metals & Mining
    * Technology, Media, & Telecoms
    * Investment Research
    * Sector Coverage
    * Expert Directory
   
   More ways we can help
   NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
    * Credit & Risk
    * Economics & Country Risk
    * Financial Services
    * Liquidity Crunch
    * Maritime & Trade
    * M&A
    * Private Markets
    * Sustainability & Climate
    * Technology
   
   See More
 *  * All Events
    * In-Person
    * Webinars
    * Webinar Replays
   
   Featured Events
   WebinarSEC 10c-1: Navigating the Future of Securities Lending
    * 11/15/2023
    * Live, Online
    * 09:30 am - 10:30 am EST
   
   WebinarThe Big Picture: Outlook for 2024
    * 11/15/2023
    * Live, Online
    * 10:00 am - 11:00 am EST
   
   WebinarState of the Market: Mining Q3'23
    * 11/16/2023
    * Live, Online
    * 10:00 am - 11:00 am EDT

 * PLATFORMS
    * S&P Capital IQ Pro
    * S&P Capital IQ
    * S&P Global China Credit Analytics
   
   OTHER PRODUCTS
    * Credit Analytics
    * Panjiva
    * Money Market Directories
   
    
    * Research Online
    * 451 Research
   
   See All Product Logins

BLOG Nov 13, 2023


OCEAN CARRIERS SURVEY CHANGING MARKET AND PONDER NEXT COURSE OF ACTION

Peter Tirschwell

SINGAPORE — If there's one question looming above all others as the era of
extreme carrier profitability recedes into the past, it is this: What will ocean
carriers do next?

Behind that question is a truism often forgotten in container shipping, which is
that whatever happens to pricing and service is not the result of outside forces
such as recession or consumer spending exerting pressure on the market beyond
the ability of the industry to control. Rather, what ultimately happens is
entirely in the hands of the carriers, with their decisions determining how an
unpromising year such as 2024 actually plays out.

In other words, external conditions are what they are. US containerized imports,
which year to date through August were almost exactly at the level of 2019, may
or may not bounce back next year due to difficult-to-predict factors as varied
as tightening consumer credit, inflation, high mortgage rates or student loans
coming due.

But how that translates into pricing and quality of service on the water will be
the result of how carriers respond to those market conditions. Flush with cash,
it was carriers who splurged on new green tonnage, driving the order book up to
nearly 30% of the existing fleet at a time when demand was never going to be
sustained at the levels seen in 2021 and 2022 and could remain subdued for
another year. And it will be those same carriers who will decide how, and to
what extent, to mitigate the impact of overcapacity, including how aggressively
to undercut competitors to fill their ships.



That is why as the industry looks toward 2024, when expectations for a recovery
are fading fast, the question of how carriers will react is very much a topic of
speculation across the industry.

There is a range of possibilities. The opportunity would certainly exist, for
example, for the largest carriers to draw down the huge war chests they amassed
during the pandemic to wage a ruinous rate war with the goal of driving weaker
carriers out of the market. In the annals of container shipping history, such
aspirations are hardly unheard of. In an industry with virtually no track record
of startup carriers rapidly achieving global scale, taking out a competitor
would produce the seemingly not unsatisfying result of further consolidation,
strengthening the hand of the surviving liners.

But several Asia-based container shipping sources contacted recently believe
that will not happen, at least not soon. Due to consolidation over time, many
carriers have fallen out of the top tier and become smaller in their overall
share of the market. Therefore, taking them out, if actually achieved,
accomplishes little given the costs involved to get the job done.

To that point, sources agree that despite hyperventilating headlines proclaiming
a rate war earlier this year, it wasn't a rate war in the classic sense that led
trans-Pacific spot rates to the West Coast to plummet by more than 80% since
early 2022 and about 25% since August, according to Platts, a sister company of
the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global.

Rather, it was the market adjusting to the unclogging of ports and a sharp
decline in volume — US containerized imports are down 18.7% year to date through
August versus 2022 while the vessel backups that idled capacity are gone for the
most part. There were few signs of carriers engaging in predatory pricing to
fill ships at any price and gain customers and market share at the expense of
competitors.

Those are the same factors that will soon wipe out carrier profits and leave the
industry in the same, mostly unprofitable, position as it was prior to the
pandemic.

"We expect quarterly earnings to continue falling, not only into year-end, but
into next year," Jefferies analyst Andrew Lee wrote on Oct. 9.



That informs the prevailing view among Asia-based sources that however
inevitably the carriers' pandemic good times might now be fading into history,
none has interest in funding the losses that a true predatory rate war would
cause. Rather, the carriers still appear to many to be yield-driven, searching
for profits however elusive they might be, and reverting to their tried-and-true
posture of aggressively controlling costs.

Thus, looking forward to 2024, the market should expect more of the same, namely
blank sailings, slow steaming, delayed vessel deliveries where possible and
increased scrapping. More aggressive moves — such as parking ships in the
Norwegian fjords and diverting Europe-to-Asia ships around the Cape of Good Hope
to save Suez Canal fees and absorb capacity — are also possible.

Ocean carriers in the eastbound trans-Pacific say capacity reductions they have
implemented on the trade this year are likely to continue at least for the next
five months, with US imports expected to remain muted through Chinese New Year
in February.

An intense focus on cost, moreover, makes it less likely that certain carriers
will go the route of delivering consistent service as that would mean fewer
blanked sailings and more capacity that would need to be filled through
aggressive rate actions. Bottom line: An all-out war among the carriers is not
likely to break out.

*Originally published in the Journal of Commerce on October 12, 2023





Subscribe now or sign up for a free trial to the Journal of Commerce and gain
access to breaking industry news, in-depth analysis, and actionable data for
container shipping and international supply chain professionals.

Subscribe to our monthly Insights Newsletter

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P
Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Previous Next
 * 
 * * 
   * 
   * 
   * 
   * 

Recommended for you

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maritime & Trade: Maritime Solutions

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Trade Solutions

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


How can our products help you?

WE CAN OPTIMIZE YOUR TRADE DATA TO HELP YOUR BUSINESS GROW

Learn more

HIRE INDUSTRY-LEADING CONSULTANTS BY THE HOUR

Get the objective, authoritative analysis you need without delays.
FIND AN EXPERT
Related Posts
VIEW ALL
Blog NOV 13, 2023

Hobbled Panama Canal pinched further as eastern Asia factory growth favors Suez

Blog NOV 13, 2023

Retailers pivot in fast-moving trans-Pacific as carriers accelerate blank
sailings

Blog NOV 13, 2023

US wind industry navigates deep waters to meet ambitious offshore target

VIEW ALL

{"items" : [
{"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[
{"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2focean-carriers-survey-changing-market-and-ponder-next-course-o.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2focean-carriers-survey-changing-market-and-ponder-next-course-o.html&text=Ocean+carriers+survey+changing+market+and+ponder+next+course+of+action+%7c+S%26P+Global+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2focean-carriers-survey-changing-market-and-ponder-next-course-o.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Ocean
carriers survey changing market and ponder next course of action | S&P Global
&body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2focean-carriers-survey-changing-market-and-ponder-next-course-o.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Ocean+carriers+survey+changing+market+and+ponder+next+course+of+action+%7c+S%26P+Global+
http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2focean-carriers-survey-changing-market-and-ponder-next-course-o.html","enabled":true}]},
{"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}

Share
Top

Filter Sort
 * About Us
 * Quality Program
 * Contact Us
 * Email Subscription Center
 * Press Releases

 * Careers
 * Corporate Responsibility
 * Our History
 * Investor Relations
 * Leadership

 * © 2023 S&P Global
 * Terms of Use
 * Cookie Notice
 * Privacy Policy
 * Disclosures
 * Do Not Sell My Personal Information
 * Customize

 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 


YOUR COOKIE CONTROLS:

S&P Global uses cookies to improve user experience and site performance, offer
tailored advertising and enable social media sharing. By clicking "Accept All",
you agree to our use of cookies. By clicking “Reject All”, we will not place
cookies on your device unless strictly necessary for website functionality. For
details, please refer to ourCookie Notice

Customize Reject All Accept All


Your Opt Out Preference Signal is Honored


PRIVACY PREFERENCE CENTER

When you visit any web site, it may store or retrieve information on your
browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you,
your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you
expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can
give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to
privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the
different category headings to find out more and change our default settings.
However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site
and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Allow All


MANAGE CONSENT PREFERENCES

FUNCTIONAL COOKIES

Functional Cookies

These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and
personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose
services we have added to our pages.    If you do not allow these cookies then
some or all of these services may not function properly.

Cookies Details‎

TARGETING COOKIES

Targeting Cookies

These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may
be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you
relevant advertisements on other sites. Targeting cookies uniquely identify your
browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will
experience less targeted advertising.

Cookies Details‎

PERFORMANCE COOKIES

Performance Cookies

These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and
improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the
most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site.    All
information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you
do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and
will not be able to monitor its performance.

Cookies Details‎

STRICTLY NECESSARY COOKIES

Always Active

These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched
off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you
which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy
preferences, logging in or filling in forms.    You can set your browser to
block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then
work.

Cookies Details‎
Back Button


COOKIE LIST



Search Icon
Filter Icon

Clear
checkbox label label
Apply Cancel
Consent Leg.Interest
checkbox label label
checkbox label label
checkbox label label

Save Settings