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Opinion



WHAT COULD HAPPEN TO US CRITICAL MINERAL POLICIES UNDER TRUMP?

Copyright © 2024 Energy Intelligence Group All rights reserved. Unauthorized
access or electronic forwarding, even for internal use, is prohibited.
Published:
Mon, Nov 18, 2024
Author
Gregory Wischer, Washington
Editor
Ronan Kavanagh
BJP7images/Shutterstock
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In September, then-candidate Donald Trump pledged to “rescind all unspent funds
under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” This pledge could, however,
face pushback in Congress — from Republicans. Republican congressional
districts represent nearly 60% of the announced IRA projects, encompassing 85%
of the IRA investments and 68% of the IRA jobs. Consequently, Congress could
repeal some parts of the IRA, but other parts could remain, given the ability of
a handful of Republicans — along with the entire Democratic caucus — to block a
total IRA repeal amid a (likely) slim Republican majority in the House of
Representatives. 

In this case, the next Trump administration could modify IRA-funded programs to
advance Trump’s stated policy goal of onshoring domestic manufacturing,
including critical minerals production. Indeed, Robert Lighthizer — former US
trade representative in the first Trump administration and likely cabinet pick
in the next Trump administration — hinted in September that a future Trump
administration could keep parts of the IRA that support US manufacturing. For
critical minerals production, the Trump administration could issue new rules,
guidance and memoranda that direct IRA funding to domestic critical mineral
projects.

The first Trump administration’s Department of Energy (DOE) issued guidance
modifying two programs that were seemingly in opposition to Trump’s policy
priorities: the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) program, which
supports the manufacturing supply chain for advanced technology vehicles such as
electric vehicles (EVs), and the Title 17 Clean Energy Financing program, which
supports investment in clean energy and energy infrastructure. The first Trump
administration’s revised guidance made domestic critical mineral processing
projects eligible for direct loans under the ATVM program and domestic critical
mineral extraction and processing projects eligible for loan guarantees under
the Title 17 program.

Loan Eligibility

The next Trump administration could again modify the guidance for the ATVM and
Title 17 programs, which received a significant funding influx from the IRA.
With the ATVM program, the next Trump administration’s DOE could issue guidance
extending direct loan eligibility to domestic mineral extraction projects. Under
the existing guidance, US critical mineral processing projects, but not
extraction projects, are eligible for direct loans. (The Biden administration
has, in fact, loaned to US mineral processing projects under this Trump-era
guidance.) By issuing new ATVM guidance to cover extraction projects, the next
Trump administration could incentivize more mining in the US.

Additionally, the next Trump administration’s Secretary of Energy could issue a
memorandum directing the Loan Programs Office — which oversees the Title 17
program — to prioritize outreach to the mineral industry about the Title 17
program, aligning with Executive Order 13817, “A Federal Strategy to Ensure
Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.” Presently, eligible projects
for the Title 17 program range from renewable energy systems to oil refineries.
Increased outreach to the mineral industry specifically could increase
applications and potentially loan guarantees for US mining and processing
projects.

Production Tax Credits

The next Trump administration’s DOE could also issue a new rule for the Section
45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, which was established by the IRA.
Under existing regulations, US operations that involve extracting but not
processing critical minerals are ineligible for this production tax credit. The
IRA statute says companies can claim a tax credit on “an amount equal to 10% of
the costs incurred by the taxpayer with respect to production of such material.”
However, the next Trump administration could reinterpret this text to also
encompass the production upstream of the applicable critical minerals, which
include highly refined metals (e.g., cobalt) and chemical products (e.g., cobalt
sulfate), enabling US mining operations to claim a 10% tax credit on their
production-related costs.

Furthermore, the next Trump administration could preemptively constrain
disbursements from IRA programs likely facing repeal by Congress. For example,
the Section 30D New Clean Vehicle Credit provides a tax credit of up to $3,750
for purchases of new EVs with batteries containing a certain percentage of
minerals sourced from the US and other eligible countries. Congressional
Republicans will likely seek to repeal this credit, but if the next Trump
administration wants to shrink the tax credit disbursements before a
congressional repeal, it could expand the applicable foreign entity of concern
definition. This new definition would reduce the number of EVs eligible for the
tax credit by disqualifying from the tax credit those vehicles with batteries
containing minerals from firms linked to foreign adversaries — like China.

Domestic Content 

Similarly, if a Republican-controlled Congress does not claw back unallocated
IRA grants, loans and tax credits, the next Trump administration could consider
extending domestic content procurement preferences under the Build America, Buy
America Act to federally backed projects that consume large volumes of minerals.
For instance, the next Trump administration could condition federal funding for
projects — like battery manufacturing facilities — on these projects sourcing
high percentages of domestically produced minerals in their production lines.

With the IRA, the next Trump administration could seek to repeal some programs
while modifying others to advance its policy goals of onshoring domestic
manufacturing, including mineral production. Specifically, the next
administration could issue new rules, guidance and memoranda that direct IRA
funding to domestic critical mineral projects. The first Trump administration
took such actions, and the next Trump administration could do the same.

Gregory Wischer is the founder of Dei Gratia Minerals, a critical minerals
consulting firm. The views expressed in this article are those of the author. 


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