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AFTER LOCKBIT, ALPHV TAKEDOWNS, RAAS STARTUPS GO ON A RECRUITING DRIVE

Law enforcement action hasn't eradicated ransomware groups, but it has shaken up
the cyber underground and sown distrust among thieves.

Nate Nelson, Contributing Writer

March 20, 2024

5 Min Read
Source: Zoonar GmbH via Alamy Stock Photo


High-profile takedowns of brand-name ransomware operations are starting to have
a real impact, sowing discord among hackers and causing major shifts in the
cyber underground.

The US and European Union governments have ramped up efforts to disrupt
ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) operations in recent months, most notably with
headline-grabbing coordinated actions against the infamous LockBit and
ALPHV/BlackCat groups. Police have identified ringleaders, seized malicious
infrastructure and data — including information about affiliates — and even
trolled adversaries with messages posted to their leak sites.



Though well-intentioned, these missions tend to receive criticism when,
inevitably, remnants of such large, diffuse groups pop up days or weeks after
their reported demise. After all, if the threat actors aren't being eradicated,
what's the point?

A new report from GuidePoint Security on the current state of the ransomware
ecosystem supplies that answer.

Thanks to the drama surrounding household RaaS groups, affiliates — the hackers
who actually carry out attacks on their behalf — have increasingly moved away
from them, toward lesser-known RaaS upstarts offering what they couldn't: trust.



"The question has been for years: How do we stop ransomware?" says Drew Schmitt,
practice lead for the GuidePoint Research and Intelligence Team (GRIT). "One of
the pieces of the answer could be creating distrust between groups and their
affiliates."


HOW LOCKBIT AND ALPHV LOST THEIR CRED

"At first glance, if you don't really dive into the details, you might say that
law enforcement was unsuccessful in their operations," Schmitt admits.



"But when you dive a little bit deeper, you realize that there are quite a few
consequences for the ransomware groups that weren't really about taking down
their infrastructure permanently," he adds. "And I think the biggest one is
influencing these bigger groups to make decisions or take actions that
ultimately hurt their credibility."

The strangest instance of this occurred following ALPHV's takedown last
December. After an effort to rebuild its infrastructure and its reputation —
offering affiliates a greater cut of their winnings, and lifting certain
targeting restrictions — the group found a way to actually capitalize on its
loss, using an exit scam. When one of its affiliates pulled off a $22 million
dollar heist of United Healthcare a few weeks back, the group disregarded its
profit-sharing agreement, keeping the entirety of the winnings and claiming that
they were defeated by law enforcement yet again. The affiliate has published
chat logs and blockchain data to suggest otherwise.





Affiliate exposes ALPHV's exit scam. Source: GuidePoint Security

In LockBit's case, even law enforcement's petty trolling has had a material
reputational impact. As part of Operation Cronos, law enforcement posted to
LockBit's leak site that "LockbitSupp has engaged with Law Enforcement ☺," which
dented the RaaS leader's street cred, and, if true, put all its affiliates at
risk as well.

As trust wanes in the formerly most-trusted names in ransomware, other groups
are attempting to step in and take their place.


RAAS STARTUPS WANT YOU

In the vacuum left by larger groups, Schmitt has observed, "We see a kind of
back-and-forth between some of these smaller groups, like LockBit and ALPHV had
in the years past, competing against one another. This is very similar in my
mind to how many different emerging companies in the same type of product or
area in the market compete with one another, always trying to change and evolve
and really make themselves a standout."



The startup RaaS Cloak, for example, recently posted to the underground forum
UFO Labs offering an above-average 85/15 profit sharing split, with no upfront
payment required to access its purportedly strong and modifiable signature
malware.

The midmarket RaaS group Medusa is trying to sweep up former ALPHV and LockBit
affiliates by offering 24/7 access to its administrative, advertising, and
negotiating teams, and a sliding scale payment sharing model which starts at
70/30, but rises to 90/10 for ransoms in excess of $1 million.

Another upstart group called "RansomHub," recruiting from the same
Russian-language underground forum as Medusa — RAMP — advertises a flat 90/10
split and a policy that affiliates can freely contract with other groups, as
well. But its core value proposition is about trust.

RansomHub's RAMP recruitment post. Source: Guidepoint Security

"We have noticed that some affiliates have been seized by the police or have
escaped from fraudulent activity causing you to lose your funds," the group
wrote online. To assuage any concerns that they'll do the same, RansomHub has
reversed the traditional model: Instead of controlling all the funds and paying
out affiliates their share, affiliates control their own wallets and pay
RansomHub.

Evidently, Schmitt notes, "There's a kind of pendulum shift happening right now,
where these groups are trying to figure out where they can capitalize on the
distrust in bigger groups like LockBit and ALPHV."

"Ransomware has traditionally been a very reactive type of cybercrime," he says,
"and this is where we're at now. It's all very volatile, and we'll have to see
how this plays out."




ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Nate Nelson, Contributing Writer



Nate Nelson is a freelance writer based in New York City. Formerly a reporter at
Threatpost, he contributes to a number of cybersecurity blogs and podcasts. He
writes "Malicious Life" -- an award-winning Top 20 tech podcast on Apple and
Spotify -- and hosts every other episode, featuring interviews with leading
voices in security. He also co-hosts "The Industrial Security Podcast," the most
popular show in its field.

See more from Nate Nelson, Contributing Writer
Keep up with the latest cybersecurity threats, newly discovered vulnerabilities,
data breach information, and emerging trends. Delivered daily or weekly right to
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