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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
STEADY BUT SLOW: RESILIENCE AMID DIVERGENCE
April 2024
* Projections Table
* Chapters in the Report
* Statistical Appendix
* GDP Growth
* Data Tools
* Videos
English
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Download Full Report
Previous Issues
GLOBAL RECOVERY IS STEADY BUT SLOW AND DIFFERS BY REGION
The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2
percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. A slight acceleration
for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023
to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest
slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to
4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years
from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is
forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024
and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation
targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is
generally projected to decline more gradually.
The global economy has been surprisingly resilient, despite significant central
bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Chapter 2 explains that
changes in mortgage and housing markets over the prepandemic decade of low
interest rates moderated the near-term impact of policy rate hikes. Chapter 3
focuses on medium-term prospects and shows that the lower predicted growth in
output per person stems, notably, from persistent structural frictions
preventing capital and labor from moving to productive firms. Chapter 4 further
indicates how dimmer prospects for growth in China and other large emerging
market economies will weigh on trading partners.
* Full Report
* Executive Summary
* Foreword
* Press Conference
* April 2024 Database
* Blog by IMF's Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
PROJECTIONS TABLE
CHAPTERS IN THE REPORT
CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES
Economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of
2022–23. As global inflation descended from its mid-2022 peak, economic activity
grew steadily, defying warnings of stagflation and global recession. However,
the pace of expansion is expected to be low by historical standards and the
speed of convergence toward higher living-standards for middle- and lower-income
countries has slowed, implying persistent global disparities. With inflationary
pressures abating more swiftly than expected in many countries, risks to the
global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy
should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly. A renewed focus on fiscal
consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and priority
investments, and to ensure debt sustainability. Intensifying supply-enhancing
reforms are crucial to increase growth towards the higher prepandemic era
average and accelerate income convergence. Multilateral cooperation is needed to
limit the costs and risks of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, speed
the transition to green energy, and facilitate debt restructuring.
* Read Chapter 1
* Chapter 1 Data
* Press Conference
* Blog
* online annex
* Commodity Special Feature
CHAPTER 2: FEELING THE PINCH? TRACING THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY THROUGH
HOUSING MARKETS
Why are some feeling the pinch from higher rates and not others? Chapter 2
investigates the effects of monetary policy across countries and over time
through the lens of mortgage and housing markets. Monetary policy has greater
effects where (1) fixed-rate mortgages are not common, (2) home buyers are more
leveraged, (3) household debt is high, (4) housing supply is restricted, and (5)
house prices are overvalued. These characteristics vary significantly across
countries, and thus the effects of monetary policy are strong in some and weak
in others. Moreover, recent shifts in mortgage and housing markets may have
limited the drag of higher policy rates up to now in several countries. The risk
that households may still feel the pinch should be taken seriously where
fixed-rate mortgages have short fixation periods, especially if households are
heavily indebted.
* Read Chapter 2
* Chapter 2 Data
* Podcast
* blog by imf staff
* online annexes
CHAPTER 3: SLOWDOWN IN GLOBAL MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH: WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO TURN THE
TIDE?
The world economy's growth engine is losing steam, prompting questions about its
medium-term prospects. Chapter 3 delves into the drivers behind the growth
decline and identifies a significant and widespread slowdown in total factor
productivity as a key factor, partly driven by increased misallocation of
capital and labor between firms within sectors. Demographic pressures and a
slowdown in private capital formation further precipitated the growth slowdown.
Absent policy action or technological advances, medium-term growth is projected
to fall well below prepandemic levels. To bolster growth, urgent reforms are
necessary to improve resource allocation to productive firms, boost labor force
participation, and leverage artificial intelligence for productivity gains.
Addressing these issues is critical, given the additional constraints high
public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation may impose on future growth.
* Read Chapter 3
* Chapter 3 Data
* Panel Discussion
* blog by imf staff
* online annexes
CHAPTER 4: TRADING PLACES: REAL SPILLOVERS FROM G20 EMERGING MARKETS
As G20 emerging markets account for almost one-third of world GDP and about
one-quarter of global trade, spillovers from shocks originating in these
economies can have important ramifications for global activity. Chapter 4
documents that, since 2000, spillovers from shocks in G20 emerging
markets—particularly China—have increased and are now comparable in size to
those from shocks in advanced economies. Trade, notably through global value
chains, is a key propagation channel. Spillovers generate a reallocation of
economic activity across firms and sectors in other countries. Looking ahead, a
plausible growth acceleration in G20 emerging markets, even excluding China,
could support global growth over the medium term and spill over to other
countries. Policymakers in recipient economies should maintain sufficient
buffers and strengthen policy frameworks to manage the possibility of larger
shocks from G20 emerging markets.
* Read Chapter 4
* Chapter 4 Data
* Panel Discussion
* Blog by IMF Staff
* Online Annexes
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
STATISTICAL APPENDIX:
Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications
STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE A:
Key Global Economic Indicators
STATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLE B:
Supplemental Global Economic Indicators
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April 2024 Database
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VIDEOS
Перспективы развития мировой экономики, апрель 2024 года
Ожидается, что темпы роста мировой экономики останутся стабильными на уровне
3,2% в 2024 и 2025 годах. При условии принятия тщательно выверенных и
решительных мер политики страны могут обеспечить «мягкую посадку».
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ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ, АПРЕЛЬ 2024 ГОДА
* April 16, 2024
* 00:02:31
Perspectives de l' économie mondiale, Avril 2024
L’économie mondiale est sur la voie d’une croissance stable de 3,2% en 2024–25.
Avec des politiques déterminées et bien paramétrées, les pays réussiront un
atterrissage en douceur.
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PERSPECTIVES DE L' ÉCONOMIE MONDIALE, AVRIL 2024
* April 16, 2024
* 00:02:31
Perspectivas de la economía mundial, abril de 2024
La economía mundial sigue una senda de crecimiento estable de 3,2% en 2024 y
2025. Con políticas decididas y bien calibradas, las economías pueden lograr un
aterrizaje suave.
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PERSPECTIVAS DE LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL, ABRIL DE 2024
* April 16, 2023
* 00:02:31
Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2024
Watch Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas present our latest global growth
projections and key policy recommendations.
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PRESS BRIEFING: WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, APRIL 2024
* April 16, 2024
* 00:45:38
IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on the April 2024 World
Economic Outlook
IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department Pierre-Olivier
Gourinchas outlines the new updates in the latest release of the World Economic
Outlook (WEO).
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IMF ECONOMIC COUNSELLOR PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS ON THE APRIL 2024 WORLD
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
* April 16, 2024
* 00:02:42
World Economic Outlook, April 2024
The global economy has shown resilience during disinflation. But at 3.2 percent
projected for 2024 and 2025, global growth remains below the 3.8% historical
average. Reforms that foster productivity can help boost growth over the medium
term.
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, APRIL 2024
* April 16, 2024
* 00:02:31
Trading Places: Real Spillovers from G20 Emerging Markets
How do economic shocks in G20 emerging market economies impact global value
chains, trade, and more? Watch our discussion with the Council on Foreign
Relations (CFR).
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TRADING PLACES: REAL SPILLOVERS FROM G20 EMERGING MARKETS
* April 9, 2024
* 00:59:03
Slowdown in Global Medium-Term Growth: What will it take to turn the tide?
A conversation with the IMF’s Nan Li, Diaa Noureldin, and the New York Times’
Jeanna Smialek on our latest research on medium-term prospects.
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SLOWDOWN IN GLOBAL MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH: WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO TURN THE TIDE?
* April 10, 2024
* 00:37:09
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