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Submitted URL: https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-vurlkud-tjhhtdhdid-k/
Effective URL: https://stockhead.com.au/resources/eye-on-lithium-the-consensus-is-theres-no-consensus-on-when-lithium-prices-will-begin-...
Submission: On January 02 via manual from IN — Scanned from DE
Effective URL: https://stockhead.com.au/resources/eye-on-lithium-the-consensus-is-theres-no-consensus-on-when-lithium-prices-will-begin-...
Submission: On January 02 via manual from IN — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 5 forms found in the DOM
GET /
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Skip to content close * Mining * Technology * Health & Biotech * Energy * Features * Coinhead * Experts * Investor Guides * Explainers * Events * IPO Watch * ESG * Escrow Watch * Director Trades * Aftermarket * The Secret Broker * Vids + Pods * Stockhead TV * WTF?! * Long Shortz * On the Bid * RockTalk * 90 Seconds * Podcasts * Explorers * Rock Yarns * Stock Insiders * Health Kick * Unicorns * Stocks * SEARCH * SUBSCRIBE Mining › Lithium Pic: Via Getty EYE ON LITHIUM: THE CONSENSUS IS THERE’S NO CONSENSUS ON WHEN LITHIUM PRICES WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN Mining 17 hours agoJanuary 2, 2024 | Reuben Adams SHARE * * * * Link copied to clipboard * Fastmarkets says next lithium upcycle to begin mid/late 2025 * “I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years”: Fastmarkets analyst Jordan Roberts * ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes market bottom “by the second half of 2024 at the latest” * Benchmark says there are a couple of bull market signals to keep an eye on: flagging mine supply and booming EV sales Is it too early to load up on sold down lithium stocks? Maybe, says Fastmarkets battery raw materials analyst Jordan Roberts. While the next couple of years represent another attractive opportunity to invest in the lithium sector, Roberts says punters should prepare to be waiting until mid/late 2025 for the next upcycle to begin. “If we look at the length of the cycles in the lithium market, the last “winter” so to speak lasted between 2-2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,” he told Stockhead. “Spot lithium prices have been on the decline for roughly a year now. So if we apply the timeline from above, that points to a recovery in the middle to late 2025. “So I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years based on a supply and demand balance that is pointing to a market surplus in 2024 and 2025. “Lithium stocks are currently some of the most shorted on the ASX, so I think there is a fairly strong belief that the lower price environment is here to stay for a while and there is low risk of a potential short squeeze. “There is still a hunger for lithium generally and positive sentiment for long-term demand fundamentals. I believe that the first sign of a stable recovery in price, not just short-term restocking driven, will be reflected in stock sentiment.” BUT PRICES WON’T GO STRATOSPHERIC AGAIN. PROBABLY Roberts says believes lithium prices probably won’t go as mental as they did in 2022, when spodumene was paying over US$8000/t and chemicals topped US$87,000/t. “The sector’s move away from fixed long-term contracts to index-based price mechanisms, and the increasing use of futures contracts should cap potential price upside (in theory) and avoid a return to $87 dollars per kilogram,” he says. “However, Should the current price environment cause producers to pause expansions and project development to enter a hibernation period, this could create the perfect storm that again results in another price run-up akin to 2021-2022.” SC Insights lithium expert Andy Leyland agrees. WHAT DO OTHER EXPERTS SAY? Like Leyland, ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes the lithium chemical supply surplus isn’t as big as analysts believe. He expects prices will begin to rise sometime in 2024. “Much of Chinese lepidolite is losing money at current spot pricing. Even Chinese companies can’t lose money on a long-term basis without subsidy,” Lowry told Stockhead. “I believe the bottom happens by the second half of 2024 at the latest.” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts “a more balanced market in 2024” but one which is “likely to keep prices at similar levels to today”. But there’s a couple of bullish signals to keep an eye on, it says. “The slim forecasted surplus could swing into a deficit if only one major project delay occurs. Equally, should global EV sales rise 600,000 units above base case demand forecasts, the supply and demand dynamic would flip, which could lend some support to prices.” Not an unthinkable scenario, says Benchmark. Then there’s the Big Bear Goldman Sachs, which is predicting prices to bottom out in 2025 due to oversupply, before rising in 2026. Say what you like about Goldman Sachs (Lowry certainly does), but some of its analysis on lithium forecasting in 2023 turned out to be pretty accurate. Macquarie has also pivoted from its bullish September outlook, and now says the market for lithium will “remain in surplus for several years”. ASX LITHIUM FORM GUIDE: Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 4pm.) Stocks missing from this list? Email reuben@stockhead.com.au Processing... CODECOMPANYWEEKMONTH6 MONTHYEARPRICEMARKET CAP CODE COMPANY WEEK MONTH 6 MONTH YEAR PRICE MARKET CAP 1MCMorella Corporation-17%-17%-38%-58%0.005$33,983,397A11Atlantic Lithium3%-23%-25%-34%0.41$249,017,274A8GAustralasian Metals-12%-12%30%-21%0.15$8,860,484AAJAruma Resources Ltd4%-13%-37%-49%0.027$5,316,071ADGAdelong Gold Limited0%-17%-38%-29%0.005$3,498,278ADVArdiden Ltd-3%-3%-42%-42%0.175$10,940,564AGYArgosy Minerals Ltd12%-12%-63%-75%0.145$189,595,012AKEAllkem Limited0%16%-39%-13%9.83$6,304,350,967AL8Alderan Resource Ltd9%-14%-8%-14%0.006$5,534,307ALYAlchemy Resource Ltd5%5%-34%-54%0.0105$11,780,763AM7Arcadia Minerals-5%-14%-37%-64%0.073$7,960,657AMLAeon Metals Ltd.11%-9%-33%-63%0.01$12,060,407ANXAnax Metals Ltd0%7%-52%-43%0.03$14,427,529AOAAusmon Resorces0%0%-14%-57%0.003$3,020,998ARNAldoro Resources52%47%19%-22%0.125$16,827,968AS2Askarimetalslimited-11%-11%-46%-64%0.155$13,606,287ASNAnson Resources Ltd6%-2%-8%-23%0.1425$180,003,484ASRAsra Minerals Ltd-13%-7%0%-65%0.007$11,402,970AUNAurumin14%0%-19%-59%0.025$9,319,520AVWAvira Resources Ltd-25%0%-40%-50%0.0015$3,200,685AVZAVZ Minerals Ltd0%0%0%0%0.78$2,752,409,203AX8Accelerate Resources-5%-18%105%78%0.041$24,070,274AZIAltamin Limited6%4%-28%-30%0.055$23,546,707AZLArizona Lithium Ltd-3%-21%-3%-50%0.031$113,858,997AZSAzure Minerals-1%-7%145%1540%3.69$1,697,114,428BM8Battery Age Minerals11%-5%-61%-59%0.205$16,936,009BMMBalkanminingandmin-8%-11%-41%-64%0.12$7,814,456BNRBulletin Res Ltd17%-3%130%51%0.14$41,105,865BURBurleyminerals6%6%-28%-25%0.165$16,713,965BYHBryah Resources Ltd-7%-7%-19%-49%0.013$5,636,894CAICalidus Resources8%8%26%-20%0.215$131,531,381CC9Chariot Corporation-7%-10%0%0%0.57$39,599,047CHRCharger Metals6%-27%-64%-60%0.18$11,997,871CMDCassius Mining Ltd29%29%18%100%0.04$20,104,422CRRCritical Resources5%-13%-50%-53%0.02$37,334,856CTNCatalina Resources13%13%50%-55%0.0045$5,573,191CXB0ASRA MINERALS LTD.0%-11%0%-59%0.00004$6,515,983CXOCore Lithium3%-1%-70%-74%0.2675$534,233,886CY5Cygnus Metals Ltd-4%-14%-56%-68%0.12$39,360,484DAFDiscovery Alaska Ltd21%44%-18%-28%0.023$4,450,459DALDalaroometalsltd-4%-37%-73%-78%0.022$1,820,500DLIDelta Lithium5%7%-42%4%0.48$323,409,419DREDreadnought Resources Ltd-5%-8%-43%-72%0.0295$104,372,189DTMDart Mining NL6%6%-58%-69%0.017$3,868,854DYMDynamicmetalslimited18%0%-48%0%0.165$4,900,000EFEEastern Resources0%-20%-20%-72%0.008$9,935,572EG1Evergreenlithium-8%-19%-47%0%0.175$9,840,250EMCEverest Metals Corp-2%-2%-58%1%0.08$13,062,649EMCEverest Metals Corp-2%-2%-58%1%0.08$13,062,649EMHEuropean Metals Hldg-18%-29%-52%-38%0.395$53,693,553EMSEastern Metals9%13%-33%-51%0.036$2,884,919ENTEnterprise Metals0%33%0%-60%0.004$3,207,884ENTEnterprise Metals0%33%0%-60%0.004$3,207,884EPMEclipse Metals0%-11%-50%-50%0.008$16,500,434EUREuropean Lithium Ltd56%54%13%52%0.1125$146,395,113EVREv Resources Ltd22%10%-15%-21%0.011$12,095,472FBMFuture Battery-1%-3%-41%34%0.071$38,964,187FG1Flynngold2%-31%-13%-48%0.052$7,577,661FINFIN Resources Ltd17%-21%50%11%0.021$14,283,911FL1First Lithium Ltd-7%-26%194%194%0.53$36,076,609FRSForrestaniaresources2%-8%-68%-80%0.0285$4,530,001FTLFiretail Resources3%-8%-30%-52%0.077$11,465,728G88Golden Mile Res Ltd12%-10%-64%-7%0.019$6,258,401GL1Globallith2%-7%-24%-36%1.18$313,619,685GLNGalan Lithium Ltd33%19%-16%-32%0.73$243,895,873GREGreentechmetals-3%-7%-20%218%0.445$31,491,708GSMGolden State Mining0%-17%-67%-65%0.015$4,190,559GT1Greentechnology10%-13%-62%-67%0.275$90,416,848GW1Greenwing Resources9%25%-46%-55%0.125$23,523,950HAWHawthorn Resources-6%12%-34%-19%0.093$31,156,452ICLIceni Gold0%-16%-25%-34%0.053$12,472,571IECIntra Energy Corp0%-25%-40%-63%0.003$5,812,736IGOIGO Limited1%9%-40%-32%9.11$6,853,273,708IMIInfinitymining-10%17%17%-49%0.14$11,628,361INFInfinity Lithium2%-4%7%-20%0.096$46,259,209INRIoneer Ltd11%3%-56%-61%0.15$316,711,822IPTImpact Minerals10%0%-21%57%0.011$31,511,743IR1Irismetals-7%-24%-46%-21%0.915$119,773,608JBYJames Bay Minerals5%-15%0%0%0.315$10,220,175JLLJindalee Lithium Ltd17%2%-44%-48%0.98$62,909,722JNOJuno5%-9%52%10%0.105$20,013,979KAIKairos Minerals Ltd-7%-13%-19%-33%0.014$36,692,771KGDKula Gold Limited0%-50%-12%-40%0.015$6,290,487KOBKobaresourceslimited-13%-9%-55%-50%0.07$7,379,167KTAKrakatoa Resources-8%-25%38%-25%0.033$16,995,860KZRKalamazoo Resources14%0%4%-43%0.12$20,564,337L1MLightning Minerals-14%-20%-25%-27%0.12$5,911,509LELLithenergy5%-5%-34%-26%0.57$59,230,750LISLisenergylimited-18%-20%-31%-48%0.165$115,236,041LITLithium Australia0%3%-9%-33%0.03$36,665,750LKELake Resources6%2%-56%-83%0.1325$184,917,812LLILoyal Lithium Ltd22%6%14%24%0.365$25,240,547LLLLeolithiumlimited0%0%-53%4%0.505$498,553,663LLOLion One Metals Ltd-3%-1%26%-15%0.995$14,142,041LM1Leeuwin Metals Ltd-7%-30%-65%0%0.14$6,442,188LNRLanthanein Resources5%92%-23%-45%0.0115$14,832,837LPDLepidico Ltd-6%-12%-32%-53%0.0075$61,106,464LPILithium Pwr Int Ltd2%2%88%26%0.555$350,664,412LPMLithium Plus8%-17%28%-7%0.345$30,955,752LRDLordresourceslimited8%-19%-28%-61%0.065$2,339,324LRDLordresourceslimited8%-19%-28%-61%0.065$2,339,324LRSLatin Resources Ltd10%53%-14%181%0.275$796,234,767LRVLarvottoresources-4%-17%-39%-49%0.072$14,874,940LSRLodestar Minerals-25%-25%-25%-40%0.003$8,093,589LTRLiontown Resources11%24%-40%28%1.685$3,996,274,846M2RMiramar0%11%-40%-72%0.021$3,126,260MANMandrake Res Ltd-5%5%-9%5%0.042$26,477,677MHCManhattan Corp Ltd0%0%-50%-27%0.004$11,747,919MHKMetalhawk.8%-10%8%-15%0.14$13,420,950MINMineral Resources.4%16%-1%-9%70.53$13,663,049,960MLSMetals Australia6%6%9%-17%0.037$23,089,339MM1Midasmineralsltd4%12%-59%-28%0.145$12,144,614MMCMitremining2%0%-13%-7%0.26$15,305,659MNSMagnis Energy Tech0%-13%-70%-89%0.042$50,378,922MQRMarquee Resource Ltd4%-4%-42%-30%0.026$10,747,994MRRMinrex Resources Ltd-6%0%14%-50%0.016$18,442,748MTMMTM Critical Metals92%283%-12%16%0.092$6,761,722MXRMaximus Resources-3%-37%13%-15%0.034$11,221,202NISNickelsearch-5%-32%20%-55%0.071$15,588,599NKLNickelxltd-5%-38%-45%-54%0.037$3,249,161NMTNeometals Ltd5%8%-57%-74%0.205$130,764,966NVANova Minerals Ltd7%33%26%-46%0.365$75,920,386NWMNorwest Minerals19%0%-33%-41%0.032$7,764,377OBMOra Banda Mining Ltd7%2%96%192%0.245$409,624,769OCNOceanalithiumlimited-4%-4%-71%-67%0.115$6,369,180OLYOlympio Metals Ltd-9%-25%-49%-28%0.105$6,677,947OZMOzaurum Resources17%22%233%112%0.14$23,812,500PAMPan Asia Metals24%3%-30%-62%0.155$20,877,679PATPatriot Lithium-6%-11%-37%-36%0.17$12,333,084PFEPanteraminerals0%-13%-40%-53%0.052$6,896,373PFEPanteraminerals0%-13%-40%-53%0.052$6,896,373PGDPeregrine Gold2%-6%-11%-36%0.245$15,015,846PL3Patagonia Lithium9%-7%-32%0%0.125$6,386,705PLLPiedmont Lithium Inc-1%9%-51%-35%0.42$158,083,824PLNPioneer Lithium5%-26%0%0%0.195$5,685,000PLSPilbara Min Ltd4%10%-19%6%3.98$11,887,398,383PMTPatriotbatterymetals5%8%-34%51%1.135$514,633,556PNNPower Minerals Ltd5%-6%-42%-58%0.225$18,348,981PSCProspect Res Ltd-1%1%-45%-27%0.088$41,236,545QPMQueensland Pacific8%-2%-45%-50%0.055$110,689,717QXRQx Resources Limited-4%-20%26%-43%0.024$25,531,791RAGRagnar Metals Ltd-4%0%-7%101%0.023$11,375,543RASRagusa Minerals Ltd9%-14%-45%-69%0.036$5,133,556RDNRaiden Resources Ltd8%-5%310%763%0.041$106,175,499RECRechargemetals1%-15%-75%-31%0.093$10,578,438RGLRiversgold0%-25%-20%-60%0.012$10,644,276RIORio Tinto Limited2%9%19%17%136.57$50,359,191,591RLCReedy Lagoon Corp.0%-17%-14%-48%0.005$3,097,704RMXRed Mount Min Ltd0%-14%-25%-40%0.003$8,020,728RONRoninresourcesltd3%-18%16%9%0.18$6,812,627SBRSabre Resources7%-14%19%-18%0.031$12,311,018SCNScorpion Minerals-6%-27%-64%-54%0.032$13,512,054SCNScorpion Minerals-6%-27%-64%-54%0.032$13,512,054SGQSt George Min Ltd9%6%-13%-49%0.035$33,460,375SLMSolismineralsltd-6%-19%-86%100%0.15$11,382,022SRISipa Resources Ltd0%19%25%-22%0.025$5,703,953SRZStellar Resources0%0%-38%-38%0.008$8,043,185STMSunstone Metals Ltd0%-13%-46%-62%0.014$52,316,023SUMSummitminerals-13%-20%-34%-34%0.096$4,718,056SYASayona Mining Ltd9%13%-60%-63%0.07$730,824,017TEMTempest Minerals0%0%-38%-65%0.008$4,091,068TG6Tgmetalslimited-5%-52%241%226%0.375$20,823,174THRThor Energy PLC3%7%-25%-50%0.03$5,581,090TKLTraka Resources0%-5%-36%-52%0.003$2,625,988TKMTrek Metals Ltd-8%-24%-60%-51%0.037$20,523,074TMBTambourahmetals4%-25%33%14%0.12$9,123,439TMBTambourahmetals4%-25%33%14%0.12$9,123,439TMXTerrain Minerals0%25%-29%-17%0.005$6,767,139TONTriton Min Ltd9%14%-29%-33%0.024$35,911,271TORTorque Met-2%22%57%22%0.22$28,913,298TORTorque Met-2%22%57%22%0.22$28,913,298TYXTyranna Res Ltd13%-5%-5%-25%0.018$55,886,231VKAViking Mines Ltd15%25%50%50%0.015$14,353,618VMCVenus Metals Cor Ltd-5%-9%-9%27%0.1$18,972,868VSRVoltaic Strategic-5%-14%-79%-19%0.019$9,178,974VULVulcan Energy9%14%-33%-56%2.79$490,408,073WC8Wildcat Resources-2%-9%467%2733%0.68$831,058,844WCNWhite Cliff Min Ltd11%-9%43%-29%0.01$11,489,034WESWesfarmers Limited3%10%17%26%57.62$64,693,471,823WMCWiluna Mining Corp0%0%0%0%0.205$74,238,031WMLWoomera Mining Ltd16%21%123%53%0.029$34,617,142WR1Winsome Resources6%-4%-33%-11%1.09$195,126,804WYXWestern Yilgarn NL5%5%-19%-19%0.105$4,965,750XTCXTC Lithium Limited0%0%-17%-67%0.2$17,528,272YARYari Minerals Ltd22%-21%-21%-35%0.011$5,547,115ZEOZeotech Limited3%-13%-27%-30%0.033$55,469,538ZNCZenith Minerals Ltd-12%11%67%-43%0.15$52,857,132 Wordpress Table Plugin WHO’S HOT AND NOT OVER THE PAST WEEK? CHARGED UP European Lithium (ASX:EUR) +56% Aldoro Resources (ASX:ARN) +52% Galan Lithium (ASX:GLN) +33% LOW ON JUICE European Metals (ASX:EMH) -18% Morella Corp (ASX:1MC) -17% Lightning Minerals (ASX:L1M) -14% EXPLORE MORE * Investor Guide: Battery Metals FY2023 Read MoreLithium SHARE * * * * Link copied to clipboard SUBSCRIBE Get the latest Stockhead news delivered free to your inbox. "*" indicates required fields Name* Email* Hidden Email Lists Morning Update Lunch Update Market Close Update Weekend Update It's free. Unsubscribe whenever you want. By proceeding, you confirm you understand that we handle personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy. FEATURED COMPANIES * ASX: L1M Lightning Minerals * ASX: ARN Aldoro Resources * ASX: EMH European Metals * ASX: GLN Galan Lithium * ASX: 1MC Morella Mining * ASX: EUR European Lithium YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN Mining SEC GREEN LIGHTS WOLFSBERG MERGER WORTH US$750M FOR EUROPEAN LITHIUM December 28, 2023 | Special Report Mining GALAN LITHIUM ON TRACK WITH POND 1 CONSTRUCTION AS GLENCORE PROGRESSES DUE DILIGENCE ON ITS US$100M OFFTAKE AGREEMENT December 21, 2023 | Special Report Mining GALAN ON TRACK TO JOIN THE EXCLUSIVE LITHIUM PRODUCER CLUB IN 2025 December 6, 2023 | Special Report SPONSORED ARTICLES FEATURED ARTICLES * Mining WINNER, WINNER, BRINES FOR DINNER: QX RESOURCES SCORES WITH FIRST HOLE AT LIBERTY LITHIUM BRINE PROJECT * Mining SPARTAN CHECKS THE BOXES ON BOTH TONNAGE AND GRADE FOR ITS DALGARANGA GOLD RESOURCE UPGRADE * Mining FUTURE METALS’ LOW-COST PANTON PROJECT TO GENERATE ROBUST MARGINS IN ALL PHASES OF THE PGM PRICE CYCLE DON'T BE THE LAST TO KNOW Get the latest stock news and insights straight to your inbox. 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FEATURED COMPANIES * ASX: L1M Lightning Minerals * ASX: ARN Aldoro Resources * ASX: EMH European Metals * ASX: GLN Galan Lithium * ASX: 1MC Morella Mining * ASX: EUR European Lithium EDITOR'S PICKS * WHY THESE ASX FIRMS ARE SHYING AWAY FROM THE 'POT STOCK' LABEL - PART ONE * ASX FINTECH FINDI TO GRAB HUGE OPPORTUNITY AS 350 MILLION INDIANS SET TO ENTER BANKING SERVICES * BULK BUYS: ARE BOOMING IRON ORE PRICES REAL OR ARE THEY A BET ON A FUTURE WE'LL NEVER SEE? * LIFE OF BRIAN: WEIGHTING FOR OPPORTUNITY * TRU DATT: ASX SMALL CAPS HAVE BEEN OVER-UNLOVED About Us Meet The Team Stocks Contact Us Advertise Stockhead is providing factual information where there is a reasonable likelihood of doubt. The information is not intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. 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