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CROSS DEATH PUTS ECUADOR AT A POLITICAL CROSSROADS

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on July 3, 2023 by RonJuly 3, 2023

Corruption has taken over the political agenda of several countries, large and
small, in Latin America. From the Rio Grande down to the south of the continent,
the last decades have been marked more by money than by principles. Presidents
prosecuted, fugitives, arrested, serving sentences. And no end in sight, with
some accusations being true, others not so much. That is why nobody is surprised
by the disenchantment, in general, of citizens with politicians, and the overall
loss of confidence in democracy.

In Ecuador, a new soap opera – or drama – has just begun. We do not know when it
will end or how. In a multi-ethnic country, where more than 10 languages are
spoken, with the US dollar as national currency and deeply divided between the
jungle and the highlands (between “monos y serranos”, as they identify
themselves). With a little more than 250,000 square kilometers — about the size
of the U.S state of Colorado — and almost 19 million inhabitants.

As of late, President Guillermo Lasso, who completed two years on May 24, has
made use (for the first time ever) of a constitutional amendment introduced in
2008 by former president Rafael Correa. Correa, today a fugitive from justice,
created this mechanism which allows Lasso to dissolve the National Assembly,
controlled by the opposition, which was attempting to remove him from office,
and call for general elections. The mechanism is called the “cross death”, due
to the mutual annulment of the presidential and legislative power, since both
must go to elections. And it could also be qualified as a sort of “presidential
suicide”, since the current opposition will probably keep the parliamentary
majority, while Lasso has decided not to run for reelection.

The basis of the cross death is Constitutional article 148, which states:

The President or President of the Republic may dissolve the National Assembly
when, in his or her judgment, it has arrogated functions that are not
constitutionally within its competence, prior favorable opinion of the
Constitutional Court; or if it repeatedly and unjustifiably obstructs the
execution of the National Development Plan, or due to serious political crisis
and internal commotion.

Although opposition sectors claimed circumstances did not warrant the cross
death, the Constitution Court ruled against them, allowing the measure to go
into force. From his redoubt in Belgium, Correa also objected to the cross
death, claiming there was no internal commotion, only the threat of impeachment
for Lasso. He took the opportunity, however, to rally his unconditional
supporters, estimated at around 20% of voters, to point out that it was
necessary to take advantage of the opportunity to “send Lasso and his
parliamentarians home”.

In only 11 years, between 1996 and 2007, Ecuador has had seven presidents of the
republic. Therefore, former President Rafael Correa, who had managed to grant
stability to the country over two constitutional periods (2007-2017), modified
the Constitution that had come into force in 2008. By introducing this escape
valve, he prevented the military from knocking on the door of the presidential
palace in the face of social mobilizations, strikes and street violence that
characterized part of the twentieth century.

Ecuador, the country located in the “middle of the world”, was home to leaders
and caudillos such as General Eloy Alfaro, twice president and father of the
liberal revolution, who inspired the guerrilla movement of the 80’s, “Alfaro
Vive, carajo”. And to José María Velasco Ibarra, famous for his oratorial
skills, who was elected no less than five times with his famous phrase “Give me
a balcony in every city, and I will be President again”.

Ecuador has also been a pioneer in indigenist matters, with the classic novel
“Huasipungo”, by Jorge Icaza published in the 30’s, which shook the conscience
of Latin America; as well as home to the famous paintings of master Oswaldo
Guayasamín (1919-1999). Relations with its southern neighbor, Peru, have not
been easy for Ecuador: they fought the last war in South America – the “Condor
War” – between January and February 1995, with around 500 dead and where, as in
Magical Realism, both countries declared themselves victors.

This is the first time since the current Constitution came into force, that the
mechanism of dissolution of the legislative and presidential power is used.
President Lasso will govern until December by decree, without opposition, while
the Constitutional Court will be his overseer that will be able to approve or
reject the projects of the executive until the new Parliament takes office. It
is expected to function as a counterweight to the immense power with which the
current president will be able to govern. We will witness a political and legal
exercise that has rarely been seen in Latin America. Ecuador will put its
constitutional and political strengths to the test. With the campaign already
underway, most political observers initially believed Correa’s political party,
“Citizens Revolution”, has the best chances of winning. However, recent
political polls cast that outcome in doubt.

The political picture in Ecuador has changed dramatically in recent years. In
last February’s elections to renew mayors and regional prefectures, President
Lasso’s government suffered a quantitative and symbolic defeat by losing the
cities of Quito and Guayaquil, among many others. His party, CREO (Creando
Oportunidades) which in 2019 still controlled 32 mayorships, was reduced to 10.
The populist Social Christian Party, which supports business interests, was
defeated in the Guayaquil mayoral race for the first time 30 years by the
Citizens Revolution candidate.

Surely, former President Rafael Correa, from distant Europe, follows events
minute by minute and with the hope of victory for his party. But he has no
possibility for himself, personally. At least for now, since it means returning
to the political arena due to the eight-year sentence that weighs on him for
corruption and bribery during the years of his presidency.
__________________

Fernando Ayala is an economist who has held posts as ambassador, Deputy Director
of Strategic Affairs and Undersecretary of Defense in Chile.

Posted in Ecuador | Tagged unprecedented election

VIRTUALLY NO INFLATION IN ECUADOR

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on November 25, 2022 by RonNovember 25, 2022

Inflation in Ecuador remains below three percent while there is virtually no
unemployment. This comes as no surprise to me as I anticipated this when making
my decision to retire here ten years ago. A consequence is the significant
increase in my Social Security check in January will mean an actual increase in
my buying power instead of a retrograde as it is for recipients living in the
United States.

So why is inflation so low here? First, Ecuador is energy independent. We have
hydroelectric power [Okay, it only operates at half its projected potential
thanks to the incompetent China contractors who built it but it’s half more than
we had before.] Ecuador also produces its own oil. There is no meaningful
suicidal political movement against pumping oil. Unfortunately, the government
never keeps its promises to preserve the Amazon where the oil rigs are located
but it doesn’t slow development a bit. Being energy independent means outside
economics do not drive its cost up and, as the U.S. is learning, energy costs
drive up all prices for everything.

Second, Ecuador is food independent. We have some of the most fertile topsoil in
the world and can grow anything. True, we import a fair amount of our fruits
from Chile as the quality is better but we have plenty of our own fruits. We
grow all our vegetables and produce all of our meat. Cattle are grazed in the
Amazon [There are no feedlots in Ecuador.] and the use of growth hormones,
massive antibiotics and blackened chicken coops are not only illegal but
unconstitutional. Food here is entirely natural and what a difference it makes
in health and taste. If you haven’t experienced it, you can’t imagine how
different. We do import some luxury food items but they appeal to a small niche
of consumers and have no meaningful effect on inflation. The only catch in food
is that we do not grow wheat. There is a tiny movement to encourage bread
production from bananas [I’ve never had it but am told it is wonderful.] but it
hasn’t taken off. So far bread prices are relatively stable and I expect the
government to subsidize wheat if necessary to prevent social unrest if bread
prices rise significantly.

Third is real estate. No Ecuadorian with any sense trusts the banks here. During
the economic collapse of 1999 nearly everyone with any money lost their fortune
and were left with real estate. The banks are not insured by the national
government and even if they were no one would trust them as Ecuador routinely
defaults on its sovereign debt. The consequence is that cash is kept out of the
country, Panama and the U.S. primarily, and the rest goes into apartments and
houses for rent. Taxes on real estate are ridiculously low [ten dollars a year]
and no one insures property as it is virtually fire proof and protected by armed
guards. You can sit on unoccupied property indefinitely and many do. Cuenca, and
I believe the rest of Ecuador, is awash in available apartments and houses and
as a result rentals are very low, very low. Add to that incredibly low utilities
and there you have it.

And that’s pretty much it. There are imports of course but they don’t have much
effect on the cost of living for most people. If cars go up in price, don’t buy
one, or buy a used one. Replacement parts for certain heavy equipment will go up
as will the equipment itself but these costs are minimal against the entire
economy.

If in considering this you recalled that the United States can be energy
independent but has elected not to be you are getting it. It is food independent
but as a big country it needs energy to transport it to the consumer.

Countries usually are what the elect to be. Sometimes outside forces dictate
otherwise but most of the time they don’t. Ecuador has placed itself into a
position to manage inflation, other countries, the U.S. and Europe, have decided
the opposite.

Posted in Ecuador, inflation | Tagged Cuenca, Ecuador, expat, inflation

THE GLOBAL WARMING – CLIMATE CHANGE HOAX

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on August 26, 2022 by RonAugust 26, 2022

I suspected the argument for people changing the world’s climate was a hoax when
the media made the big switch from the hysteria about the coming new Ice Age to
a new hysteria about the end of the world from over heating. The switch was very
abrupt. Then the proposed solutions had almost nothing to do with the claimed
problem. All they did was increase government control over our lives at all
levels and increase our taxes.

Climate is always changing. The weather during the twenty years of our youth
does not necessarily represent “normal” climate, if such a thing exists. The
world is always getting warmer or colder, the same for wherever you grew up or
live now. When the global warming extremists ostensibly abandoned the term
“global warming” they’d so fervently embraced for decades and substituted
“climate change”, which could mean almost anything, I knew they were liars and
just so many political activists. Interestingly, when it serves their immediate
aim they instinctively revert to “global warming”. Habits are hard to shake,
especially bad ones.

My belief it was all a hoax was enhanced when the so-called experts were caught
lying by falsifying data and releasing heavily skewed charts that cherry picked
dates to support their cause. If reality is on your side you don’t have to lie.
Perhaps being a former judge made that an easier decision for me than for
others.

As I see it, mankind is slowly destroying the planet, but we aren’t doing it
with CO2 gas. There’s no correlation between it and an increased global
temperature.

We are destroying our home planet with plastic and with the pervasive use of
toxic chemicals in the products we use everyday as well as by the continued
industrialization of our food. There has been no need to artificially reduce
fertility with vaccines, if that’s what’s occurred and I suspect it has, because
our steady poisoning of ourselves has lower sperm counts into the species
extinction level.

Sadly, I see no prospect of meaningful change. Too many companies make too much
money from destroying mankind to stop. Just as the Romans slowly poisoned
themselves with the wide use of lead we are going down the same road. We never
learn.

Read this to learn more: Watts Up With That?

Posted in climate change hoax | Tagged climate change hoax, global warming

THE RISE OF BITCOIN

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on June 3, 2022 by RonJune 3, 2022

Though both the traditional stock market and Bitcoin are down these days many
financiers and investors are of the opinion that some crypto currencies and in
particular Bitcoin are the future. So-called hard money like the U.S. dollar has
existed in digital form for some time and this is used to transfer upwards of $5
trillion dollars every day rather than transport actual Greenbacks. Even the
U.S. Treasury has acknowledged that a significant percentage of dollars put to
use are never actually printed. Though the government denies this is in fact
digital money that is what it really is as it only exists in electronic form.

Almost everyone buys things or makes payments electronically on the Internet or
by swiping a credit or debit card. Those under 40 today routine make day to day
purchases from their cellphone using an App. The step to cutting out the dollar
involved in such transactions and replacing it with a digital currency isn’t
much and scarcely noticable.

Bitcoin, the granddaddy of all crypto coins, is a digital store of value and is
emerging as the backbone of all cypto transactions. It will be ever more the
case as country after country adopts or accepts the use of crypto in its
economy. Individuals increasingly see the wisdom in untethering their finances
from a national fiat currency that constantly devalues and is subject to
government control. Many governments desire to be free of the U.S. dollar the
Swift system for transactions with its expense and transparency to the U.S.
government.

Crypto, especially Bitcoing, is the future, not so much to completely replace
the dollar and other fiat currencies but provide a safe harbor for individuals
and freedom from the U.S. government control of nations.

Read here the Rise of Bitcoin. Whether you plan to use crypto or not you should
understand it.

Posted in Bitcoin

ONE DOCTOR SAW THIS COMING

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on January 12, 2022 by RonJanuary 12, 2022

When the Covid pandemic first struck a very good friend retired here in Cuenca,
Ecuador, told me his concerns and fears at what was about to happen. A former
Naval Officer and medical doctor who specialized in holistic medicine before
retiring to Ecuador, he published an article of concern and prediction in our
leading expat website, Cuenca Highlife. He was vilified by many for what he
wrote. It turns out that this article, published in May, 2020, was prophetic.
Read it and remember this was in the early weeks of the pandemic.

My dear friend was in Mexico the following December, contracted Covid, was
hospitalized in San Diego where his wife was refused permission to see him and
died of pneumonia at age 90.

https://cuencahighlife.com/covid-19-questions-and-answers/

Posted in Covid 19, Ecuador, experts | Tagged Covid, Ecuador, expert

CUENCA, EC AT CHRISTMAS

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on December 23, 2021 by RonDecember 23, 2021

I’ve not written for some time. I can only blame laziness. But it has also been
a very, very busy time. I have said from time to time that I never needed a
social calendar until I retired. Just wait, you’ll see.

Christmas here in Cuenca, Ecuador comes at the peak of summer. A bit more
sunshine, warmer days, so more outdoor activities. Many expats have trouble
adjusting to the summer atmosphere but as I’m from Arizona I’m used to a sunny
Christmas. The first week in November started the holiday season here with the
huge celebration of Ecuadorian independence from the hated Spanish. It continues
into December with various religious celebrations culminating in the Parade of
the Children on Christmas Eve, one of the great events of South America. Some
eight hours in duration with thousands of participants, costumes, dance, floats;
first class and truly wonderful. The city fathers tried to cancel it again this
year but under protest are allowing a severely restricted version. Hope it will
be back in all its glory next year.

Then we have New Year’s Eve. Let’s be candid, Ecuadorians like to drink so put
it together. The unique aspect is the burning of the Viejos. These are two-third
human size dummies, many based on political figures, sold on the streets. Around
midnight you stuff a note listing what you’d like to bury from the outgoing
year, then you toss the thing in the street and burn it at midnight. Really. The
first New Year’s Eve here we drove into the city from the foothills and it
looked like Cuenca was aflame. The city government keeps trying to put a stop to
the practice [it is prohibited this year but the Viejo sales are allowed so
there’s no doubt what will happen] but they’ve had little success.

In January we have the celebration of the Three Kings visiting Jesus which is a
huge celebration here and, if memory serves, is the occasion of a massive
secular parade, all done in jest, in which everything, and every politician, is
mocked. Great fun.

This is the start of the height of the tourist season and no wonder. A joy to
live here.

Posted in Christmas, Cuenca, Ecuador | Tagged Christmas, Cuenca, Ecuador

EXPAT LIFE IN CUENCA, ECUADOR #4

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on October 4, 2021 by RonOctober 4, 2021

Time for some Pros and Cons on moving to and living in Cuenca, Ecuador where
I’ve lived these past eight years. I’ve told friends for some months now that
once the worse restrictions of this so-called pandemic have passed there will be
a surge of expats into Cuenca. My reasons for thinking this is that many
Americans will find they are no longer employable for any number of reasons.
They will be faced with a retirement earlier than they expected and when they
run the numbers they will see they cannot afford to live in the U.S. except as a
pauper. So here are the Pros and Cons of Cuenca.

Pros – 1. This is a traditional society. It’s known as the Bible belt of
Ecuador. Frankly, men are men, women are women. Sunday is family day as it used
to be in the U.S. Courtesy and respect towards strangers is the norm. Vulgarity
is unknown in my experience. 2. Cuenca is cheap. The cost of living here is
roughly one third of what it is in the U.S., perhaps now with runaway inflation
there it could be one quarter. You will live an upper middle class or upper
class lifestyle here. Two friends of mine lived her five years or so, never had
to touch their money in the U.S. and recovered from their losses in 2008,
something that would never have happened had they stayed in the U.S. 3. Medical
care is excellent, especially basic care. You will experience what it’s like to
have a doctor be concerned only for you, not influenced by government rules,
insurance restrictions or fear of a lawsuit. It is an eye-opening experience.
Nearly every drug you’ll want is available without prescription, and cheap. 4.
GMOs and antibiotics are not used in growing or raising food. They are
prohibited by the constitution. Vegetables are wonderful. They are grown within
five miles of Cuenca. There are no feed lots in the country. Chickens are not
crammed into cages and live in the dark. The difference in taste, and in your
weight, are amazing. 5. Speaking of weight. Because the city is over 8,000 feet
above sea level which increases metabolism, because there is about one-third
less oxygen digestion is less efficient and because you will walk so much more,
you will lose weight. Typically, men lose 15 pounds in the first months. Now if
you insist on eating out every day and persist in guzzling beer and wine and
take a taxi every 15 feet you won’t drop a pound. But with little effort you can
drop 30 to 40 pounds. I’ve noticed this doesn’t seem to happen so much with
women. 6. Cuenca is the right size. It’s reportedly at half a million but that
includes a vast area around the city. The heart of the city has about 100,000.
7. You don’t need a car. Few expats have them as they are such a hazzle. Taxis
are cheap and plentiful, the bus system has its challenges so most expats don’t
use it but I do and have no problems, we have a state-of-the-art light rail
system, there is just no reason to own a car and it is liberating. There’s more
Pros but those are likely the high points.

Cons – Keep in mind that more than half of expats who retire here move within
two years. They just don’t find what they want here. Remember, no matter where
you live you take yourself and your marriage. I’ve seen more than one 50
marriage fall apart under the pressure of constant contact and a few others that
should fall apart. 1. There is more pollution in the very center of the city
than I like which is one reason we live on the edge of the center by the river
with its steady breeze. Pollution has improved enormously in recent years and
its likely you’ll not notice it at all. The city is committed to reducing it
even more. 2. There are too many cars on the streets. Ecuadorians love their
cars. You won’t. 3. Cuenca is hard to get to and from. There are no direct
flights here from the U.S. and won’t be for the foreseeable future. The
advantage here is that we aren’t overwhelmed with expats. 4. You need at least
some Spanish to get along. With smart phones this isn’t the challenge it once
was but the more Spanish you speak and understand the more you’ll enjoy living
here. 5. Specialty healthcare is suspect. I don’t know what to make of it as
I’ve never needed it. I know one man who had a hip replaced here and is
thrilled. Most expats return to the U.S. for such a procedure. The same for
bypass heart surgery. There is a state-of-the-art cancer treatment hospital
here. I knew one woman who moved here to take advantage of it. Most people I
know return to the U.S. for treatment. 6. It can be boring. You need to be
self-contained. You will have full access to all the U.S. media and
entertainment but that may not be enough. It’s all but impossible to do charity
work here and it is impossible to run a company. They don’t permit competition.
There’s only one golf course and you have to pay $22,000 to join the country
club where it’s at and recently they don’t seem to want to let expats join.

Finally, even though sixty percent of expats intending to stay here for life
leave within two years, ninety percent are gone within six years. There are
reasons. I’ve listed a few. But for myself and my wife it’s been paradise and
having traveled the world there is nowhere else I’d like to live.

Posted in Cuenca, Ecuador | Tagged Cuenca, Ecuador, expats

NATURAL IMMUNITY IS 700 TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE THAN VACCINES.

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on August 10, 2021 by RonAugust 10, 2021

The agenda to drive universal vaccinations of the populace has forced the
medical community and politicians into a corner when it comes to the question of
natural immunity. They can’t say it’s not a reasonable question, nor can they
say it’s already been answered properly. They just say this organization or that
doctor or some study shows that even those with natural immunity must still get
vaccinated. When pressed, they invoke the logical fallacy known as begging the
question; they use the affirmative answer to the question of whether people who
have recovered from Covid-19 should get vaccinated as the evidence that they
should. The numbers don’t back up this claim. In fact, those who have recovered
from Covid have far greater immunity than those who are simply vaccinated.
Perhaps a quarter of the U.S. population has already had Covid and doesn’t
require the jab. So the logical question is: Why insist on it? The answer, of
course, is population control and maintaining a perceived state of fear to
advance a political agenda. Read it all
here. https://conservativeplaylist.com/2021/07/27/delta-variant-natural-immunity-700-better-than-the-vaccine/

Posted in Covid 19 | Tagged Covid, natural immunity, vaccines

THE HOLOCAUST THROUGH THE EYES OF THE OPPRESSOR

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on July 10, 2021 by RonJuly 10, 2021

In the final months of the Second World War a young German is assigned to a
concentration camp by his uncle in an attempt to spare him. “A shocking,
disturbingly believable portrait of the Final Solution and the depravity that
enabled it.” – Kirkus Reviews, February, 2012

Posted in concentration camp, Holocaust

EXPAT LIFE IN CUENCA, ECUADOR #3

RONALD J. WATKINS Posted on June 25, 2021 by RonJune 25, 2021

With my third entry in this ongoing series let me go to the beginning. Why
become an expat? Why leave the country of your birth and nationality to live
among strangers in a very different culture, perhaps one with earthquakes and
volcanoes? My primary reason for moving abroad was that I always wanted to. I
grew up reading Burroughs, Doyle [his lost world stories, not Sherlock Holmes],
and later Graham Greene whose books were largely about expats getting into
trouble. My goal almost from the first was to retire to another country. As I
grew older and saw how narrow the lives of most of the elderly were, primarily
from lack of money, I became convinced I didn’t want that for myself.

Being from Arizona I frequently vacationed in Mexico where I met a number of
expats. They seemed to be fleeing marriages and/or debts. Later, I made a number
of trips to Costa Rica before it was discovered and destroyed by expats and had
any number of fascinating conversations with fugitive expats taking advantage of
the lack of extradition. Later I had some good fortune. I lived most of year in
Portugal working on a book and there got to know a number of British expats.
Over a pint I often discussed their reasons for living in Portugal. Most were
fleeing what they saw as the decline in British society and its economy. Others
had married Portuguese women. Many lived there because it was cheaper and the
quality of life was quite high with what fixed income they had.

Later I traveled for work in Vietnam and Thailand. Again, mostly in bars, I
meant a wide range of expats, in this case from the U.K. but also from Australia
and Europe. Two men I talked to told the same story. One was from Belgium, they
other from The Netherlands. They were unhappily married with children. Their
company sent them to Vietnam or Thailand. They acquired a local, very
accommodating girlfriend who soon had a baby, asked for a work extension, then
asked for another which was refused. In both cases they quit their job, found a
local one managing in one of the new Western companies opening up and just
stayed. They both told me they never told their wives what they were doing,
never contacted their families and had no regrets. Well, maybe. I also met a
U.S. graduate student supposedly writing his dissertation. He said his adviser
cautioned him to come back, that the last candidate who had gone to Asia never
returned. This guy had been there six years and was teaching at a regional
college. He said he was going back and I pretended to believe him.

Here in Ecuador your average expat is retired from the U.S. or Canada, is
married and here with his wife. A surprising number have minority spouses or, as
I do, a wife originally from another country who immigrated to the U.S. They say
the primary reason they live here is economics. They can simply live a much
better life here on a retirement income that would only keep them alive in North
America. Some want a foreign experience and always plan to go back home.

I have to agree on quality of life for your income. We live in a penthouse with
commanding views of the Andes and Tomabamba River, belong to the country club,
travel whenever we want and have absolutely no money concerns. We’re not alone.
I know two couples who had serious financial reverses n 2008, moved here,
rebuilt their fortune as they didn’t need it to live, then returned to the
states.

There’s a lot more to my story: the poor quality of American food, lack of
control of medical care, taxes and insurance costs, the increasing leftward
movement of all social institutions, lack of tolerance for those not conforming,
many more, but I’ll write about those later. Be well, be happy. Life is too
short to be miserable.

Posted in expats | Tagged Cuenca, Ecuador, expat life

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