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Why broad-based import tariffs can hurt exports and manufacturing jobs
Across-the-board tariff hikes can inhibit long-term competitiveness because
manufacturers rely on imported inputs and contribute disproportionately to…
Nov 4 • 
Fariha Kamal
9

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WHY BROAD-BASED IMPORT TARIFFS CAN HURT EXPORTS AND MANUFACTURING JOBS

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OCTOBER 2024

Gas prices have dropped and are poised for further declines
The plunge in crude oil prices on Monday, following Israel's decision to avoid
attacking Iranian energy facilities, should further reduce already low…
Oct 30 • 
Ryan Cummings
 and 
Neale Mahoney
4

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GAS PRICES HAVE DROPPED AND ARE POISED FOR FURTHER DECLINES

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Expanding in-home care coverage is a needed evolution of Medicare
Expanding coverage for in-home care through Medicare can help beneficiaries
manage a substantial financial risk while also providing additional…
Oct 29 • 
Gopi Shah Goda
 and 
Courtney Van Houtven
1

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EXPANDING IN-HOME CARE COVERAGE IS A NEEDED EVOLUTION OF MEDICARE

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The effect of online interviews on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer
Sentiment
Negativity among online respondents is dragging sentiment down by nearly 9 index
points
Oct 22 • 
Ryan Cummings
 and 
Ernie Tedeschi
10

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THE EFFECT OF ONLINE INTERVIEWS ON THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY OF CONSUMER
SENTIMENT

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The coming debate over the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Expiring provisions and a changed fiscal and global tax landscape set the stage
for an intense and consequential debate over tax policy following the…
Oct 21 • 
Nirupama Rao
11

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THE COMING DEBATE OVER THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT

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Washington is divided into two separate hemispheres: defense and economics; both
will gain if they can work together
Coordination could improve policy outcomes in both domains
Oct 7 • 
Peter Devine
9

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WASHINGTON IS DIVIDED INTO TWO SEPARATE HEMISPHERES: DEFENSE AND ECONOMICS; BOTH
WILL GAIN IF THEY CAN WORK TOGETHER

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SEPTEMBER 2024

Talking shop: The way forward on child care
Supply expansion and quality assurance are top priorities
Sep 23 • 
Chloe Gibbs
, 
Aaron Sojourner
, and 
Kevin Rinz
7

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TALKING SHOP: THE WAY FORWARD ON CHILD CARE

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5



Briefing Book is one year old!
Celebrating a year of posting
Sep 16 • 
Kevin Rinz
2

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BRIEFING BOOK IS ONE YEAR OLD!

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How Big Is the Subscription Cancellation Problem?
We signed up for and canceled subscriptions to 47 newspapers to find out
Sep 9 • 
Giacomo Fraccaroli
, 
Neale Mahoney
, and 
Zahra Thabet
8

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HOW BIG IS THE SUBSCRIPTION CANCELLATION PROBLEM?

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AUGUST 2024

The Banking-Securities Interface
Regulating “shadow banks” via securities law is a worthwhile second-best option
Aug 26 • 
Gabriel Rauterberg
 and 
Jeffery Zhang
5

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THE BANKING-SECURITIES INTERFACE

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Quick hits: things we're thinking about
Gas prices, social security, a guaranteed income experiment, evictions, and wage
growth
Aug 12
11

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QUICK HITS: THINGS WE'RE THINKING ABOUT

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JULY 2024

Growing Costs of Natural Disasters are Stressing Property Insurance Markets
Fixes require addressing underlying drivers of losses and offer an opportunity
to improve a complex and flawed system
Jul 29 • 
Fran Moore
14

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GROWING COSTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS ARE STRESSING PROPERTY INSURANCE MARKETS

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Introducing the Low-Wage Index: A Compositionally-Adjusted Look at Low-Wage
Workers Since 1979
The current labor market is one of only two since 1979 with sustained wage
pressures for low-wage workers
Jul 15 • 
Ernie Tedeschi
15

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INTRODUCING THE LOW-WAGE INDEX: A COMPOSITIONALLY-ADJUSTED LOOK AT LOW-WAGE
WORKERS SINCE 1979

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CPS sample size cut may save some money but would cost policymakers
Degrading data quality makes it harder to know when and how to act
Jul 1 • 
Kevin Rinz
11

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CPS SAMPLE SIZE CUT MAY SAVE SOME MONEY BUT WOULD COST POLICYMAKERS

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JUNE 2024

What do you think?
Take our short survey to help us improve
Jun 17
1

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WHAT DO YOU THINK?

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Border crossings aren't what they used to be
Historical context is important for understanding recent data from the southern
border and their policy implications
Jun 3 • 
Kevin Rinz
6

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BORDER CROSSINGS AREN'T WHAT THEY USED TO BE

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MAY 2024

The financial status of entitlement programs: what the headlines miss
The annual financial reports of Social Security and Medicare rely on long-term
assumptions that are hard to forecast – but may be overly optimistic
May 20 • 
Gopi Shah Goda
 and 
Emma Casey
2

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THE FINANCIAL STATUS OF ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS: WHAT THE HEADLINES MISS

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2



What is going on with wage growth in the United States?
It's slowing down, and receding as a macroeconomic concern
May 17 • 
Kevin Rinz
2

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WHAT IS GOING ON WITH WAGE GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES?

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Bad news bias in gasoline price coverage
TV coverage of gas prices is negatively skewed and it's only getting worse
May 6 • 
Ryan Cummings
, 
Giacomo Fraccaroli
, and 
Neale Mahoney
11

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BAD NEWS BIAS IN GASOLINE PRICE COVERAGE

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7





APRIL 2024

Surveys can improve measurement of public program access burdens
Better measures can capture psychological burdens like stress and stigma and
support agencies' burden reduction efforts
Apr 15 • 
Alexander Hertel-Fernandez
3

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SURVEYS CAN IMPROVE MEASUREMENT OF PUBLIC PROGRAM ACCESS BURDENS

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Immigration and the U.S. economy since the pandemic: an accounting exercise
Immigrants have been an important part of America's recent extraordinary
economic growth
Apr 1 • 
Ernie Tedeschi
13

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IMMIGRATION AND THE U.S. ECONOMY SINCE THE PANDEMIC: AN ACCOUNTING EXERCISE

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MARCH 2024

How could health insurance change with the 2024 election?
Changes in Affordable Care Act subsidies could impact coverage rates, the health
insurance market, and overall health
Mar 18 • 
Gopi Shah Goda
 and 
Emma Casey
4

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HOW COULD HEALTH INSURANCE CHANGE WITH THE 2024 ELECTION?

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Assessing the fiscal implications of a second Trump term
Trump’s policy proposals, if enacted, would substantially increase budget
deficits
Mar 14 • 
Ryan Cummings
, 
Lisa Hansmann
, and 
Neale Mahoney
4

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ASSESSING THE FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF A SECOND TRUMP TERM

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Proposed CMS data changes risk major research fallout
There is still time to find a better way to keep data secure
Mar 4 • 
Joshua Gottlieb
 and 
Kevin Rinz
9

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PROPOSED CMS DATA CHANGES RISK MAJOR RESEARCH FALLOUT

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