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HOW TO FIGURE OUT IF YOU CAN ACTUALLY AFFORD THAT NEW HOME

Renée Pastor, AIF®
Founder, Wealth Manager
The Pastor Financial Group
Office : 504-309-3994
renee@thepastorgroup.com
Click here to visit my website


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By Tara Siegel Bernard

May 2, 2022

High inflation often translates to high anxiety, which is why many Americans are
striving to lock in the cost of one of their most basic, most human needs: a
home.

But with housing prices already at lofty levels and mortgage rates spiraling,
many buyers may be tempted to jump in before they’re ready — or because they
fear the situation will only get worse.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Illustration: Kimberly Elliott



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



“There is this psychological pressure of everything being uncertain,” said Simon
Blanchard, an associate professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of
Business who studies consumers’ financial decision-making. That can make a
necessity like housing feel concrete, he said.

“It might sound comforting to focus on the present and lock in this part of the
budget,” he said. “The danger is you might be creating vulnerability by leaving
insufficient flexibility for later.”

The national median price of existing homes was $375,300 in March, up 15% from
$326,300 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages were 5.10% for the week that ended Thursday, up
from 2.98% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.

That has seriously eroded how much would-be buyers can afford: With a down
payment of 10% on the median home, the typical monthly mortgage payment is now
$1,834, up 49% from $1,235 a year ago, taking both higher prices and rates into
account. And that doesn’t include other nonnegotiables, like property taxes,
homeowner’s insurance and mortgage insurance, which is often required on down
payments of less than 20%.

With inflation at a 40-year high and the cost of just about everything rising,
it’s easy to get caught up in the irrationality that has some buyers
aggressively bidding up prices and skipping basic precautions, like a home
inspection.

“There is a scarcity mindset right now,” said Jake Northrup, a financial planner
for young families in Bristol, Rhode Island. He said he and his wife had decided
to wait a year and save more before buying a home of their own.

Some prospective buyers are doing the same — mortgage applications have slowed
lately — but the market remains deeply competitive because of the country’s
chronically low supply of homes. That can lead to erroneous assumptions and bad
judgment.

So before you hit the open-house circuit, it’s time to assess not just what you
can spend but what you should spend — and the potential costs down the road.

DO A BUDGET REVIEW.

Before you start scanning listings, it helps to have a solid understanding of
what you can afford — and how different price points would affect your ability
to save and spend elsewhere.

Some financial experts suggest working backward: Assume a minimum savings rate —
say 15% or 20% for retirement, college savings and other goals — and account for
all other recurring debts and expenses on a spreadsheet. Then play around with
different home prices to see how they would influence everything else.

“The right mortgage amount isn’t what you get preapproved for but what you can
afford,” Northrup said. “The No. 1 mistake I see when people buy a home is not
fully understanding how other areas of their financial life will be impacted.”

What is affordable? The answer will obviously vary by household, income, family
size and other factors.

Government housing authorities have long considered spending more than 30% of
gross income on housing as burdensome — a figure that arose from “a week’s wages
for a month’s rent,” which became a rule of thumb in the 1920s. That standard
was later etched into national housing policy as a limit — low-income households
would pay no more than one-quarter of their income for public housing, a ceiling
that was lifted to 30% in 1981.

Some financial planners may use a similar rough starting point: Spend no more
than 28% of your gross income on all of your housing expenses — mortgage
payments, property taxes, insurance — and an additional 1% to 2% allocated for
repairs and maintenance.

That won’t work for everyone, though, especially in high-cost metropolitan areas
where it’s often hard to find rentals within those strictures.

“Take all of your monthly expenses into account and truly decide how much you
want to put toward housing,” said Tom Blower, a senior financial adviser with
Fiduciary Financial Advisors. “I would never encourage a client to strictly
follow a percentage of income to determine how much to spend each month. Rules
of thumb are guidelines and something to consider, but not the end-all, be-all.”

ADJUST YOUR EXPECTATIONS.

The rise in interest rates means many people have had to rein in their price
ranges — by a lot. A family earning $125,000 that wanted to put down 20% and
dedicate no more than 28% of its gross income to housing — roughly $35,000 —
could comfortably afford a $465,000 home when the interest rate was 3%. At 5%,
that figure shrinks to $405,000, according to Eric Roberge, a financial planner
and founder of Beyond Your Hammock in Boston. His calculation factored in
property taxes, maintenance and insurance.

He generally suggests allocating a conservative share of household income — no
more than about 23% — to housing but acknowledged that’s difficult in many
places. “Our calculation for affordability doesn’t change,” Roberge said.
“However, the big jump in rates changes what is actually affordable.”

There are other considerations. With many Americans moving from cities to larger
spaces in the suburbs, you’ll also need to consider how much more it will cost
to run and furnish that home, for example, or how much extra you’ll need to
spend on transportation.

BEWARE THE FIXER-UPPER AND OTHER HIDDEN COSTS.

Properties in less-than-ideal shape are enticing to those hoping to save some
money, but supply-chain problems and other issues are making that much harder,
experts said.

“I have clients who have recently tried to partially circumvent the
affordability issue by purchasing homes that need significant improvements,”
said Melissa Walsh, a financial planner and founder of Clarity Financial Design
in Sarasota, Florida. “Because contractors are hard to come by and material
prices have been increasing at a rapid rate, these clients are finding that
purchasing a fixer-upper may not be the bargain that it was a few years ago.”

She suggests setting aside plenty of cash — she has had two clients spend more
than twice their initial estimate for renovations this year.

APPROACH AN ADJUSTABLE-RATE MORTGAGE WITH CAUTION.

Adjustable-rate mortgages generally carry lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages
for a set period, often three or five years. After that, they reset to the
prevailing rate, then change on a schedule, usually every year.

The average interest rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage — fixed for the
first five years and changing every year after — was 3.78% for the week that
ended Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. It was 2.64% last year.

More buyers are considering adjustable-rate mortgages: They accounted for more
than 9% of all mortgage applications for the week that ended April 22, double
the share three months ago and the highest level since 2019, the Mortgage
Bankers Association said.

But they’re definitely not for everyone. “The typical borrower is someone who
does not anticipate being in the property for a long time,” said Kevin Iverson,
president of Reed Mortgage in Denver.

If you know you’re going to sell before your mortgage rate adjusts, it may be a
suitable loan. But there’s no telling what rates will look like in five years,
and the sudden hit of higher rates pushed many borrowers to the brink during the
financial crisis of 2008 (though today’s ARMs are generally safer than products
peddled back then).

Be even more wary of so-called alternative financing — contract-for-deed
arrangements and “chattel” loans regularly used to buy manufactured homes —
which often lack typical consumer protections.



DON’T FORGET EVERYTHING ELSE.

The cost of simply getting into a home may feel the most painful in the near
term, but other expenses later can be just as thorny.

A recent paper by Fannie Mae economists analyzed costs typically incurred over a
seven-year homeownership life cycle and found that the biggest contributors
include just about everything but the mortgage. Other continuing expenditures —
utilities, property taxes and home improvements — together account for roughly
half a borrower’s costs, while transaction expenses were 20%, the economists
found.

They used 2020 loan data in which the average first-time homebuyer was 36 years
old with monthly income of $7,453 and bought a home for $291,139 with an 11%
down payment. The actual mortgage — excluding repayment of the principal loan
amount — contributes about 30% to the total costs over that seven-year period.

Their takeaway: “Borrowing is a big piece of the cost of owning a home, but that
cost often is overshadowed by utilities, property taxes, home repairs and
one-time fees paid to various parties to buy and sell a home.”

c.2022 The New York Times Company

This New York Times article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream.

Renée Pastor, AIF®
Founder, Wealth Manager
The Pastor Financial Group
Office : 504-309-3994
renee@thepastorgroup.com
Click here to visit my website


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Founder, Wealth Manager
The Pastor Financial Group
Office : 504-309-3994
renee@thepastorgroup.com
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