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WEEKLY MARKET WRAP

Published May 3, 2024Published May 3, 2024
Craig Fehr
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WHAT CHANGED?

> Key points:
> 
>  * While domestic inflation trends have shown encouraging progress recently,
>    U.S. inflation readings so far in 2024 have revealed that the back of
>    inflation has yet to be broken. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve held
>    interest rates steady but indicated conditions are not improving at a pace
>    that would support a change in policy setting anytime soon. We still
>    believe the next Fed rate move will be a cut. But where we think there is
>    scope for the Bank of Canada to cut sooner, we suspect it will be much
>    later in the year than we anticipated before a Fed cut can confidently be
>    considered.
>  * The U.S. labour market played both the villain and the hero for the markets
>    last week. Early week labour cost data stoked concerns of ongoing
>    inflation, while the end-of-week jobs report came in cooler than
>    anticipated, soothing concerns while still exhibiting signs that employment
>    conditions remain supportive for consumers.
>  * With the lion’s share of S&P 500 companies having reported first-quarter
>    results, the profit picture continues to brighten. While the Fed and jobs
>    report grabbed most of the attention last week, incoming quarterly
>    announcements have largely been beating expectations, while management
>    commentary and outlooks have been rather upbeat, supporting recent upward
>    revisions to estimates for 2024 profit growth.

After five months of sharp and steady gains beginning last November, the mood in
the financial markets has shifted in recent weeks. The catalysts for the swing —
U.S. Fed policy, the jobs market and corporate earnings — were all in the
spotlight last week. And while stocks have found a bit of footing in the last
few days, April's decline and recent market swings reflect a new set of facts
emerging from incoming data. 

So what changed? And does this change our opinion on the outlook for the
markets? Here’s our take:

Fed policy: From “when” to “if”

 * What was the story?
   * Coming into 2024, markets were inspired by the prospect of Fed rate cuts.
     This was the catalyst that arrested the rising-rate-driven market
     correction last fall and jumpstarted the rally at the end of October. While
     it was widely recognized that there was more work to do on inflation, the
     trend had been one of consistent improvement. Core CPI (consumer price
     index) moderated for 11 straight months and fell below 4% in December for
     the first time since May 2021.
   * As a result, at the start of the year, markets were pricing in six Fed
     interest rate cuts in 2024, with the first expected in March. We did not
     share this view, as we’ve long believed the Fed will err on the side of
     caution to avoid declaring a premature victory and risk reigniting
     inflation pressures. Nevertheless, we came into the year directionally
     aligned that the Fed would begin easing policy this year, cutting rates
     three times starting in the back half of the year.
 * What changed?
   * Even our more cautious expectations for a Fed pivot to rate cuts proved to
     be optimistic. Inflation readings so far in 2024 have revealed that the
     back of inflation has yet to be broken. We’re not seeing — nor do we expect
     to see — a resurgence in inflation pressures, but it’s become clear from
     recent data that the trend of improvement has stalled out of late.
   * Last week, the Fed held rates steady (as expected) at its latest policy
     meeting but changed its assessment of progress in core inflation returning
     to its intended target, indicating it is less confident of achieving its
     target this year. Monetary policymakers didn’t suggest a new, worrisome
     trend in inflation is afoot but did emphasize conditions are not improving
     at a pace that would support a change in policy setting anytime soon. So
     whereas 2024 started with markets debating which month rate cuts would
     begin and how many cuts there would be, incoming data have shifted that
     debate toward “will they or won’t they cut this year?”

Recent sticky inflation pushes back the Fed’s rate cut timeline

Source: FactSet. Chart description

This chart shows the year-over-year change in U.S core CPI.


Source: FactSet.

This chart shows the year-over-year change in U.S core CPI.



Shelter prices must moderate more to help lower inflation.

Source: FactSet, S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index. Chart description

This chart shows the month-over-month and year-over-year percentage change in
the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index.


Source: FactSet, S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index.

This chart shows the month-over-month and year-over-year percentage change in
the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index.


 * What now?
   * We still believe the next Fed rate move will be a cut. But we suspect it
     will take at least three or more consecutive months of improving inflation
     readings before the Fed will take that step, meaning a fall or even late
     2024 cut is a reasonable, but not inevitable, timeline. Markets have been
     obsessed with the precise timing, but we think the more important factor is
     direction.
   * Timely data indicate that some relief on services and shelter inflation
     will take shape as we progress, which tells us that six to 12 months from
     now, monetary policy settings will be less restrictive. That is the outlook
     upon which the 25%-plus market rally from October through March was built.
     And while that has been delayed, it’s not been derailed, in our view. As
     such, some volatility and even market weakness is reasonable as
     expectations recalibrate. But we think a Fed moving toward rate cuts (at
     some point) is more of a tailwind than a headwind for the markets ahead.
   * A word on rate hikes: Some chatter emerged ahead of last week’s Fed meeting
     that suggested the Fed may need to resume rate hikes to quell inflation.
     This certainly can’t, and shouldn’t, be ruled out, but we think the
     likelihood is still low at this stage.
   * For one, current policy settings appear to be restrictive but clearly need
     more time to fully seep through the economy. Two, the next leg lower for
     inflation will be tougher than the initial-stage decline from the 2022
     peak, but this will require some help from moderating consumer demand (more
     on this below), which we think is in the cards as we advance. And third,
     while we think a rate hike would be a clear negative for the stock and bond
     markets in the near term, we don’t think hiking policy rates by another 25
     basis points (0.25%), with the policy rate already above 5%, would change
     the math on the inflation backdrop. As such, we don’t think the Fed will be
     quick to do so and instead will view existing policy settings, maintained
     for a longer stretch, as a necessary approach for lowering inflation from
     here.
   * Speaking of holding rates at current levels for longer, prior instances
     offer some encouragement. The Fed held the Fed Funds rate steady from
     September 1992 to January 1994, with the stock market returning 16% during
     that time. After hiking rates aggressively through 1994, the Fed kept its
     policy rate on hold from February 1996 to February 1997, with stocks
     gaining 26% over that stretch. Following a brief hike, the Fed paused again
     from March 1997 to August 1998, with stocks adding 45%. The Fed remained on
     hold again from June 2006 to August 2007, with the S&P returning 16% in
     that time.* While the markets have experienced some recent indigestion with
     the prospect of delayed rate cuts, these instances suggest an extended
     pause by the Fed doesn’t have to be detrimental to market performance.

Labour market: Looking for Goldilocks

 * What was the story?
   * Perhaps the most consistent element of the investment backdrop for the last
     few years has been the significant strength of the labour market and the
     resulting boost that has provided to the consumer and overall GDP growth.
     We started 2024 with unemployment only slightly above historic lows and
     monthly job gains that averaged 250,000 through 2023, key factors that
     enabled the economy to avoid a recession, which we thought was a reasonable
     outcome after the Fed’s historic policy tightening (rate hike) campaign
     through 2022.
   * As far as favourable conditions go, a healthy labour market is near the top
     of the list. Our view has been that the labor market can remain in
     sufficiently healthy shape to support an ongoing expansion. Our prior
     expectation for an economic slowdown was largely based on other segments of
     the economy (manufacturing, capital investment, housing investment) that
     were contracting following 2022’s rate hikes. There is evidence that these
     areas are now rebounding, taking some of the pressure off the consumer to
     hold up GDP growth. At the same time, based on our assessment of underlying
     employment trends, our expectation has been that the labour market in both
     the U.S. and Canada will soften as we move through 2024, showing up in the
     form of slower hiring and a modest uptick in the unemployment rate.
 * What changed?
   * The labour market played both the villain and the hero for the markets last
     week. While we noted that a healthy labour market is positive overall,
     worries over recent stubborn inflation have been accompanied by the “good
     news is bad news” market reaction, meaning good employment conditions and
     consumer demand are bad for the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
   * Early last week, the release of the first-quarter U.S. employment cost
     index (ECI) data showed that labour costs have firmed recently. Markets
     responded with a Tuesday sell-off, with elevated wages viewed as a pressure
     point for inflation. Friday’s release of the latest U.S. jobs report came
     to the rescue, however, spurring a late-week rally as cooler employment
     figures eased those fears. (Canada's April employment data will be released
     on May 10.)
   * The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, notably below consensus
     estimates looking for roughly 240,000 new payrolls. This was the
     second-lowest print in the last 12 months and a notable downtick from the
     276,000 average in the first three months of the year. Thanks to an
     increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% (from
     3.8%) but remained below 4% for the 27th consecutive month.
   * The real headliner, however, was the trend in wages. Year-over-year wage
     growth ticked down to a three-year low of 3.9% (from 4.1%), helping offset
     the concerns from the Q1 ECI reading.

Monthly job gains slowed in April but remain consistent with a healthy labour
market

Source: FactSet. Chart description

This chart shows the month-to-month and average trend in U.S. nonfarm payrolls
from January 2023 - April 2024 & from January 2018 - April 2019.


Source: FactSet.

This chart shows the month-to-month and average trend in U.S. nonfarm payrolls
from January 2023 - April 2024 & from January 2018 - April 2019.



Slower wage growth is helping ease inflation concerns.

Source: FactSet. Chart description

This chart shows the year-over-year change in U.S. average hourly earnings.


Source: FactSet.

This chart shows the year-over-year change in U.S. average hourly earnings.


 * What now?
   * We don’t love it when the market roots for bad news. After all, looking for
     weaker economic data just so the Fed can cut rates in hopes of stimulating
     — wait for it — better economic data is not a particularly sustainable
     dynamic. Nevertheless, we don’t think it’s necessarily negative for the
     labour market to cool a bit. The bulk of the disinflationary trend coming
     from improving supply chains and post-shutdown normalization has likely
     been experienced. From here, to get inflation to a sustainable level, we
     think we’ll need to see some moderation in the relentless consumer demand
     that has transpired over the last few years.
   * The ideal path ahead is a Goldilocks one in which the labour market softens
     enough to allow wage growth to fall further, but doesn’t soften so much
     that job gains turn to declines and unemployment rises meaningfully. This
     is far from a guarantee, but encouragingly, we think this is a very
     plausible outcome.
   * The continual growth in labour supply, along with rising labour force
     productivity (another notable trend recently), is a powerful one-two punch
     that can allow for ongoing low unemployment alongside falling wage growth
     and inflation. Data out last week confirming the further downtrend in job
     openings and quit rates signal to us that there will be less upward wage
     pressure ahead. That, combined with the fact that excess household savings
     have been significantly reduced, tells us that consumer demand is poised to
     moderate but should remain in positive territory, supporting ongoing
     economic growth this year.

Earnings: Quietly adding support

 * What was the story?
   * As mentioned, the strong run in the equity markets has been hitched to the
     enthusiasm around the coming rate cuts. While there have been plenty of
     other factors at play, the Fed has occupied the majority of the spotlight.
     Meanwhile, the health of the economy has been adding support to corporate
     profit growth.
   * Weakness in the ISM Manufacturing index in 2022 and 2023 was accompanied by
     weakness in corporate profits. But the rebound in manufacturing activity,
     along with ongoing strong household demand and a boost from mega-cap tech
     profits, has driven corporate earnings to new highs.
 * What changed?
   * With the lion’s share of S&P 500 companies having reported first-quarter
     results, the profit picture continues to brighten. While the Fed and U.S.
     jobs report grabbed most of the attention last week, incoming quarterly
     announcements have largely been beating expectations while management
     commentary and outlooks have been rather upbeat, supporting recent upward
     revisions to what we think was an already positive estimate for 2024 profit
     growth.
   * What looks particularly compelling to us are the signs of broadening across
     the earnings landscape. In recent quarters, the tech sector — namely the
     Magnificent Seven** mega-cap companies — have been supplying the earnings
     firepower. Earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven has topped 50% in the
     last two quarters, while earnings for the remainder of the S&P 500 have
     been flat to down.
   * That tide looks to be turning, with earnings across other sectors gaining
     some momentum. In fact, earnings growth in the most recent quarter has been
     strongest in the consumer discretionary, communication services, health
     care and industrials sectors, a positive sign that earnings support is
     broadening out across the market.

Stocks slipped as Fed rate cut expectations were dashed.

Source: FactSet, S&P 500 & S&P/TSX Composite Indexes. Chart description

This chart shows the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 and TSX. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet, S&P 500 & S&P/TSX Composite Indexes.

This chart shows the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 and TSX. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.


 * What now?
   * Markets have been surprisingly and encouragingly resilient over the last
     month as rates have risen and expectations for Fed rate cuts have been
     pushed out. The fact that the market has gone from pricing in six rate cuts
     to one rate cut in 2024 over just the last few months with only a 5%
     pullback is, in our view, a reflection of the fact that the earnings growth
     outlook remains quite favorable. Similar or even smaller adjustments to Fed
     expectations during the last two years produced much larger negative
     reactions in stocks.

Earnings growth should set the tone for market performance this year.

Source: FactSet, forward twelve-month consensus S&P 500 EPS estimates. Chart
description

This chart shows the twelve-month consensus estimates for S&P 500 EPS. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet, forward twelve-month consensus S&P 500 EPS estimates.

This chart shows the twelve-month consensus estimates for S&P 500 EPS. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet, forward twelve-month consensus S&P/TSX Composite EPS estimates.
Chart description

This chart shows the twelve-month consensus estimates for S&P/TSX Composite EPS.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet, forward twelve-month consensus S&P/TSX Composite EPS estimates.

This chart shows the twelve-month consensus estimates for S&P/TSX Composite EPS.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.


 *  
   * We think the market can be tolerant of high rates for longer as long as the
     economic backdrop remains sufficiently solid to support current
     expectations for earnings growth. With valuations having already risen in
     anticipation of higher earnings, we think this year’s market gains will be
     largely driven by the pace of earnings growth. This suggests to us solid
     upside for equities this year, though unlikely to match last year’s sharp
     gain. In any event, our overweight recommendation to equites reflects our
     view that stocks can outperform bonds and cash ahead, even though we think
     lower rates over time will also support more compelling bond returns.
   * This won’t, in our view, come without additional bouts of volatility ahead,
     so portfolio diversification and an opportunistic view of temporary
     pullbacks looks to us to be an appropriate stance. We’re encouraged to see
     both earnings and performance leadership broadening beyond mega-cap tech,
     as we think this builds a healthy base for the bull market to extend.

Valuations have risen but don’t look overextended to us if earnings growth
remains strong.

Source: FactSet. Twelve-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500.
Chart description

This chart shows the trend in the next-twelve-months price-to-earnings ratio of
the S&P 500. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet. Twelve-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500.

This chart shows the trend in the next-twelve-months price-to-earnings ratio of
the S&P 500. Past performance does not guarantee future results.



Market leadership has broadened beyond tech to cyclicals and defensives.

Source: FactSet. S&P 500 Technology Sector Index relative to S&P 500 Index and
S&P 500 Industrial Sector Index, based to 100. Chart description

This chart shows the relative performance of the S&P 500 technology sector
relative to the S&P 500 Index and to the industrials sector of the S&P 500.
Leadership has broadened recently with sectors outside of technology performing
well. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


Source: FactSet. S&P 500 Technology Sector Index relative to S&P 500 Index and
S&P 500 Industrial Sector Index, based to 100.

This chart shows the relative performance of the S&P 500 technology sector
relative to the S&P 500 Index and to the industrials sector of the S&P 500.
Leadership has broadened recently with sectors outside of technology performing
well. Past performance does not guarantee future results.



Craig Fehr, CFA
Investment Strategist

Sources: *Factset, total return of the S&P 500 index. **The Magnificent Seven
are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla.


WEEKLY MARKET STATS

Weekly market statsINDEXCLOSEWEEKYTDTSX21,947-0.1%4.7%S&P 500
Index5,1280.5%7.5%MSCI EAFE *2,309.491.5%3.3%Canada Investment Grade Bonds
* 1.3%-2.3%10-yr GoC Yield3.71%-0.1%0.6%Oil ($/bbl)$78.13-6.8%9.0%Canadian/USD
Exchange$0.730.0%-3.6%

Source: FactSet, 5/3/2024. Bonds represented by the Bloomberg Canada Aggregate
Bond Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. *Source:
Morningstar Direct, 5/6/2024.






THE WEEK AHEAD

Important economic releases this week include the domestic labour force survey
and a read on U.S. consumer sentiment.


CRAIG FEHR

Craig Fehr is a principal and the leader of investment strategy for Edward
Jones. Craig is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic trends and
market conditions, along with constructing investment strategies and asset
allocation guidance designed to help investors reach their financial goals.

He has been featured in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times,
SmartMoney magazine, MarketWatch, the Financial Post, Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg
News, Reuters, CNBC and Investment Executive TV.

Craig holds a master's degree in finance from Harvard University, an MBA with an
emphasis in economics from Saint Louis University and a graduate certificate in
economics from Harvard.

Read Full Bio

Craig Fehr is a principal and the leader of investment strategy for Edward
Jones. Craig is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic trends and
market conditions, along with constructing investment strategies and asset
allocation guidance designed to help investors reach their financial goals.

He has been featured in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times,
SmartMoney magazine, MarketWatch, the Financial Post, Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg
News, Reuters, CNBC and Investment Executive TV.

Craig holds a master's degree in finance from Harvard University, an MBA with an
emphasis in economics from Saint Louis University and a graduate certificate in
economics from Harvard.

Read Full Bio


MARC NUTFORD

DFSA™

1275 North Service Rd W
#607
Oakville, ON L6M 3G4call Marc Nutford at(905) 844-4043
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The Weekly Market Update is published every Friday, after market close. 

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MARKET DATA


 * TSX
   
   22,167.54Down(-123.08)


 * DJIA
   
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Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Member – Investment Industry
Regulatory Organization of Canada.

Welcome to the Edward Jones Website. This site is published in Canada
exclusively for residents of Canadian jurisdictions where our products and
services may be legally offered. The services offered within this site are
available exclusively through our Canadian advisors. Edward Jones' Canadian
advisors may only conduct business with residents of the province(s) in which
they are registered.

Copyright © 2024 Edward D. Jones & Co., L.P. Single copies of our Internet pages
may be downloaded or printed solely for personal use. It is otherwise prohibited
to modify, copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish,
license, create derivative works from, transfer, or sell any information,
software, products or services obtained from this site. Edward Jones® is a
registered trademark of Edward D. Jones & Co., L.P.

Edward Jones is a limited partnership in Canada and is a wholly owned subsidiary
of Edward D. Jones & Co., LP, a Missouri limited partnership. Edward D. Jones &
Co., LP is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Jones Financial Companies, LLLP, a
limited liability limited partnership.

Edward Jones and its independent affiliate in the United States, collectively,
serve more than 7 million investors.

*In Quebec, our advisors are known as Investment Advisors.