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REPUBLICAN EARLY VOTING SURGE REPORTED IN PENNSYLVANIA

 * admin
 * October 29, 2024
 * News

Analysis of data suggests Kamala Harris’s campaign could be struggling to get
its supporters out to the polls

The number of Republicans casting their ballots early has surged across
Pennsylvania and other swing states in a potential boost for Donald Trump.
Although registered Democrats maintain a slight edge in terms of early voting
nationwide, Republicans have dramatically eaten into that lead and pushed ahead
in most of the battleground states that will decide the election.
In previous elections, Democrats have been more likely to vote early, while
Republicans typically turn out in greater numbers on election day.
The data may suggest that Kamala Harris’s campaign is struggling to get its
supporters out to the polls, although experts caution putting too much emphasis
on early voting data.
In the 2016 presidential election, registered Democrats led by 7.5 percentage
points in early voting, which almost doubled to a 14.3-point gap by 2020.
Data analysed by The Telegraph show that early voting among Democrats was just
3.8 points higher than among Republicans on Monday.
“You’d rather be in our position than theirs,” James Blair, the Trump campaign’s
political director, told the Wall Street Journal.
“It’s too early to start declaring victory, but the swings in our direction are
very positive.”
Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida,
said: “This is good for the Trump campaign that more of their voters are voting
earlier.”
However, it is far from certain whether early voting will translate into an
advantage for the former president.
Prof McDonald noted that loyal Trump supporters appeared to be voting earlier
compared with 2020, which could “cannibalise” Republican votes on election day.
Ms Harris’s campaign is reported to have circulated an internal memo suggesting
that the Republicans voting early this year would otherwise have turned up on
polling day. Trump is simply pulling votes forward rather than raising his final
tally, it states.
More Republicans than Democrats have already submitted a ballot in the swing
states of Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada, Telegraph analysis shows.
Although Democrats maintain a significant lead in early voter turnout in
Pennsylvania, Republicans have reduced that gap since the 2020 election.
In 2020, the Democrats had a 41 per cent lead with 2.6 million early votes cast,
even though Joe Biden would go on to win the state by just 80,000 votes. The
margins were so fine that it was only called for Mr Biden four days after the
election.
On Monday, with around 1.3 million votes cast, the Republicans had cut the
deficit to 29 percentage points.
Pennsylvania is both one of the closest swing states and the one with the
largest haul of electoral college votes. Both Ms Harris and Trump have spent a
significant amount of time campaigning in the Keystone State.
David Urban, the Republican strategist behind Trump’s Pennsylvania win in 2016,
said the early voting surge could be a “great sign” for the former president in
the battleground state.
“The extent that we can get people early, either in person or by mail, is a win,
because we get to bank those votes,” he told The Telegraph.
“Otherwise, it’s one of those things where you plan on voting and then your car
breaks down, or your daughter has a toothache – and you don’t get to vote.”
“And then it focuses your efforts on election day in terms of, who do we need to
turn out… It really helps you in terms of resource allocation.”
He added that a lack of early voting had hurt Trump in Pennsylvania in 2020, and
that Republicans had spent the last four years “laying the groundwork” for
supporters to cast their ballot ahead of election day.
In Nevada, 32,000 more registered Republicans had voted than Democrats as of
Monday. Democrats have led early voting in recent elections in the state.
In Arizona, 42 per cent of early voters are registered Republicans while 35 per
cent are Democrats. Trump’s party previously had an advantage in early voting in
the state in 2016.
In North Carolina, the Republicans had a thin lead in voter turnout on Monday of
0.8 percentage points – a reversal from the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Republicans did not lead in a single swing state in early voting in 2020. Trump,
against the advice of campaign officials, had claimed ahead of the election that
it provided an opportunity for voter fraud.
He has since reversed the position, telling supporters last week: “I need you to
vote, and I need you to go to the polls before election day because they will
try on election day to keep you home.”


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