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 * CLICKING FOR CREDIT: EXPERIENCES OF ONLINE LENDER APPLICANTS
   
   The 2021 Small Business Credit Survey revealed much about small businesses
   that sought credit from an online lender instead of a bank. Read more.


 * JULY 2022 MEDIAN CPI RELEASE
   
   The median consumer price index rose 0.5% (6.5% annualized rate) in July
   2022. The 16% trimmed-mean consumer price index rose 0.4% (5.5% annualized
   rate) during the month. Current Median CPI


 * DOES JOB QUALITY AFFECT OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY?
   
   Perhaps unsurprisingly, higher-quality jobs often retain the workers who have
   them. But lower-quality jobs affect their workers, too. Read how.


 * FRAUD AWARENESS: SCAMMERS ARE USING THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S NAME TO DECEIVE THE
   PUBLIC
   
   The Federal Reserve will never contact an individual for bank account
   details. Visit our fraud awareness page to learn more.


 * “MOM, LOOK! THE MONEY TREE IS STILL HERE!”
   
   That’s one moment shared in this month’s Cleveland Fed Digest. Read the
   roundup for our latest on inflation, small businesses, and a deadline that’s
   approaching.

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 * Previous
 * Next


HEADLINESSEE ALL

 * 08.16.22
   
   CLICKING FOR CREDIT: EXPERIENCES OF ONLINE LENDER APPLICANTS FROM THE SMALL
   BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY
   
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
   Ann Marie Wiersch Barbara J. Lipman Kim Wilson Lucas Misera
   
   What do we know about small businesses that sought credit from online lenders
   instead of traditional banks? They are more likely to have fewer employees,
   lower revenues, weaker credit scores, and fewer years in the business. They
   were also less likely to be approved for the full amount they requested. Read
   More

 * 08.16.22
   
   MORTGAGE BORROWERS’ USE OF COVID-19 FORBEARANCE PROGRAMS
   
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
   Lara Loewenstein Bezankeng Njinju
   
   The guarantee of mortgage forbearance provided in the CARES Act is an
   unprecedented provision of flexibility for government-insured mortgage
   borrowers and has been successful thus far at limiting delinquencies during
   the COVID-19 pandemic. The terms of this forbearance are favorable to
   borrowers, and there is little required in terms of documentation of
   hardship, making requesting forbearance an attractive option even if
   borrowers are not facing hardship and do not need forbearance to remain
   current on a mortgage. Despite this, evidence indicates that so far CARES Act
   forbearance has largely been used by borrowers who did actually need it. The
   success of forbearance in providing households liquidity and in reducing
   mortgage delinquencies, and its many potential benefits relative to
   foreclosure in terms of aligning incentives among the borrower, lender, and
   neighboring homeowners, raises questions for how policymakers should approach
   mortgage policy during the next economic downturn and about how mortgage
   contracts are designed. Read More

 * 08.15.22
   
   MEANS-TESTED TRANSFERS, ASSET LIMITS, AND UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME
   
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
   André Victor D. Luduvice Cornelius Johnson
   
   Asset limits in means-tested transfers can allow for the distribution of
   scarce aid to families most in need but may offer a disincentive to
   beneficiaries to build savings necessary to weather economic shocks. In this
   Economic Commentary, we examine the net worth of transfer recipients along
   the income distribution and review the economic literature on the matter with
   a discussion of universal basic income (UBI) as a policy alternative. Using
   the 2018 Survey of Income and Program Participation, we document that
   recipients have a smaller average net worth than nonrecipients at every
   quintile of the income distribution. We also find that participants at the
   very bottom of the income distribution are in asset poverty, with an average
   level of assets surrounding testing thresholds. Recent research suggests that
   the elimination of testing limits, such as in policies similar to a UBI,
   could present a welfare-improving alternative to the current system, though
   not without large economic trade-offs. Read More


PROGRAMS




INDICATORS

 * Median CPI
 * Inflation Nowcasting
 * Policy Rules
 * Systemic Risk
 * Predicted GDP Growth

 * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series
   
   
   MEDIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
   
   LONG DESCRIPTION.
   
   No description available.
   
   STRUCTURE.
   
   Line chart with 4 lines.
   The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time.
   The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Year-over-year percent change.
   
   VIEW AS DATA TABLE.
   
   CHART GRAPHIC.
   
   Median Consumer Price IndexCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1Year-over-year
   percent changeChart context menuMedian Consumer Price IndexMedian CPI16%
   Trimmed-Mean CPICPICore
   CPI2013201420152016201720182019202020212022-1012345678910Source: Bureau of
   Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver Analytics
   
 * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series
   
   
   INFLATION NOWCASTING - 2022:Q3
   
   LONG DESCRIPTION.
   
   No description available.
   
   STRUCTURE.
   
   Line chart with 4 lines.
   The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time.
   The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Quarterly Annualized Percent Change.
   
   VIEW AS DATA TABLE.
   
   CHART GRAPHIC.
   
   Inflation Nowcasting - 2022:Q3Created with Highcharts 6.1.1CPI JunPCE JunCPI
   JulQuarterly Annualized Percent ChangeChart context menuInflation Nowcasting
   - 2022:Q3CPICore CPIPCECore PCE07-11-2207-25-2208-08-2245678910Sources:
   Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Financial
   Times,Energy Information Administration, FRB Cleveland, and Haver Analytics
   
 * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series
   
   
   FEDERAL FUNDS RATES BASED ON 7 SIMPLE RULES
   
   LONG DESCRIPTION.
   
   No description available.
   
   STRUCTURE.
   
   Line chart with 5 lines.
   The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time.
   The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Percent.
   
   VIEW AS DATA TABLE.
   
   CHART GRAPHIC.
   
   Federal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple RulesCreated with Highcharts
   6.1.1PercentChart context menuFederal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple
   RulesMaximum75th PercentileMedian25th
   PercentileMinimum2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q20.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.026.028.030.032.034.036.038.040.0Source:
   Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, FRB Cleveland
   
 * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series
   
   
   SYSTEMIC RISK ANALYSIS
   
   LONG DESCRIPTION.
   
   No description available.
   
   STRUCTURE.
   
   Line chart with 3 lines.
   The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time.
   The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Standard Deviation.
   
   VIEW AS DATA TABLE.
   
   CHART GRAPHIC.
   
   Systemic Risk AnalysisCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1Standard DeviationChart
   context menuSystemic Risk AnalysisSRI (PDD-ADD)Portfolio Distance-to-Default
   (PDD)Average Distance-to-Default
   (ADD)05-23-2206-06-2206-20-2207-04-2207-18-2208-01-2200.51Source: Federal
   Reserve Bank of Cleveland
   
 * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series
   
   
   YIELD-CURVE-PREDICTED GDP GROWTH
   
   LONG DESCRIPTION.
   
   No description available.
   
   STRUCTURE.
   
   Line chart with 4 lines.
   The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time.
   The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Percent.
   
   VIEW AS DATA TABLE.
   
   CHART GRAPHIC.
   
   Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP GrowthCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1PercentChart
   context menuYield-Curve-Predicted GDP GrowthGDP growth
   (year-over-year)Incomplete quarterly average, 07/01/2022 to 07/22/202210-year
   minus 3-month yield spreadPredicted GDP
   growth20102020200020052015-10-8-6-4-202468101214Source: Bureau of Economic
   Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver
   Analytics
   


OUR PRESIDENT

LORETTA J. MESTER

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UPCOMING EVENTSSEE ALL

 * 09.15.22
   
   FEDUNIVERSITY: INTERNSHIPS AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND
   
   Join us on September 15, noon to 1:00pm, to learn about the Cleveland Fed’s
   annual internship program.

 * 09.29.22
   
   INFLATION: DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS 2022
   
   Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022, co-sponsored by the Center for
   Inflation Research and the European Central Bank will take place on September
   29-30, 2022 in Cleveland, OH.

 * 10.06.22
   
   CONFERENCE ON REAL-TIME DATA ANALYSIS, METHODS, AND APPLICATIONS
   
   The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is sponsoring the Annual Conference on
   Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications in Macroeconomics and
   Finance to be held in Cleveland, Ohio, at the Cleveland Reserve Bank on
   Thursday and Friday, October 6–7, 2022.

 * 11.07.22
   
   WOMEN IN ECONOMICS SYMPOSIUM
   
   Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at the Women in Economics
   Symposium, which aims to encourage women to pursue a career in economics by
   discussing the successful career paths of diverse economics professionals and
   raising awareness of diversity and inclusion in the profession.

 * 11.17.22
   
   2022 FINANCIAL STABILITY CONFERENCE: FRONTIER RISKS, A NEW NORMAL, AND POLICY
   CHALLENGES
   
   The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research
   will host their 10th annual financial stability conference on November 17–18,
   2022. This year’s conference is titled Financial Stability: Frontier Risks, a
   New Normal, and Policy Challenges.




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