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VARCOE: U.S. PAUSE ON LNG PROJECTS OFFERS CANADA 'SECOND CHANCE' TO BE GLOBAL
PLAYER, SAYS ENBRIDGE CEO
'It's not very often that you get a second chance on an opportunity. And I think
this may perhaps bode extremely well for that second chance, from a policy and
support perspective in Canada — if we take advantage of it,' said Greg Ebel, CEO
of Calgary-based Enbridge
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Author of the article:
Chris Varcoe • Calgary Herald
Published Jan 29, 2024 • 5 minute read
51 Comments
Cooling towers used to dissipate heat generated when natural gas is converted
into liquefied natural gas are seen under construction at the LNG Canada export
terminal in Kitimat, B.C. on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. Darryl Dyck/The
Canadian Press
ARTICLE CONTENT
As the United States pauses the approval of all new LNG export projects, Canada
has two projects now being built and a few more at the starting gate.
After standing on the sidelines for much of the past decade while the United
States transformed itself into a global LNG powerhouse, Canada now has a
monumental decision to make.
Article content
Does it also want to become a serious player in the global LNG game or be a
small exporter to the world?
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Article content
“It’s not very often that you get a second chance on an opportunity. And I think
this may perhaps bode extremely well for that second chance, from a policy and
support perspective in Canada — if we take advantage of it,” said Greg Ebel, CEO
of Calgary-based Enbridge, which is a partner in the Woodfibre LNG project.
“If, in the United States, the next round of decisions are pushed off 12 to 18
months, that means Canada can make decisions now that actually have longer-term
implications.
“Will we? I don’t know.”
On Friday, the Biden administration announced it was placing a pause on
approvals for licences surrounding new LNG export projects, saying it will take
a “hard look” at the effect of such exports on the environment — including
greenhouse gas emissions — energy security and energy costs.
Within a decade, the U.S. has become the world’s largest LNG exporter, with
seven LNG terminals and 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day of current export
capacity.
The U.S. Department of Energy notes four other terminals are being built, with
another 12 bcf per day of export capacity.
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Reuters reported the U.S. review will take months, and be open to public
comment.
The industry’s development south of the border has been astonishing, with
American LNG export capacity skyrocketing from about one bcf a day in 2016 to
more than 11 bcf a day by the end of 2022.
In Canada, progress has been much slower, to put it kindly.
Recommended from Editorial
1. White House hits pause on U.S. LNG approvals, rattling Canadian energy
producers
2. Varcoe: 'Still plenty of room for Canada to be a serious player' in global
LNG race, says Enbridge head
In 2010, the National Energy Board (now the Canada Energy Regulator) began
getting applications for long-term licences to export LNG.
A 2017 report by the regulator noted there were 24 separate project proposals in
Canada, with 18 pitched for the B.C. coast. However, high capital costs to build
greenfield projects, weak LNG prices at the time and the need for pipelines to
move gas to export facilities were among the major hurdles.
Since then, the massive LNG Canada project led by Shell received the green light
from its partners in 2018. The project at Kitimat, B.C., is under construction
and more than 90 per cent complete.
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It “remains on track to ship first cargoes by the middle of the decade,” project
officials said in a statement.
The project partners “continue to evaluate the timeline and scope for a second
phase expansion,” said Teresa Waddington, LNG Canada’s vice-president of
corporate relations.
The smaller Woodfibre LNG project, co-owned by Pacific Energy Corp. and
Calgary-based Enbridge, is also being built near Squamish, B.C. There are about
350 workers on site, and construction is expected to peak later this year and
into 2025.
A final investment decision on the proposed Cedar LNG development, a partnership
between the Haisla Nation and Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp., is expected
by the end of the first quarter.
The Woodfibre LNG site is seen on Howe Sound as work continues to prepare for
construction, in Squamish, B.C., Wednesday, July 5, 2023. Darryl Dyck/The
Canadian Press
Meanwhile, the proposed Ksi Lisims project is also progressing. It’s a
partnership between the Nisga’a Nation, a consortium of Canadian gas producers
called Rockies LNG Partners, and Western LNG.
In October, Ksi Lisims LNG filed an application with the B.C. government for an
environmental assessment certificate for the development, located on the
province’s northwest coast.
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Earlier this month, Ksi Lisims LNG announced it has signed a 20-year LNG sale
deal with Shell Eastern Trading, which will buy two million tonnes of LNG
annually from the project.
Ksi Lisims LNG spokeswoman Rebecca Scott said a final investment decision is
expected by the first half of 2025. She said Friday’s decision by the U.S.
administration could put a new spotlight on Canadian LNG projects.
“Up until last week, our potential customers would have been evaluating us
against the U.S.,” Scott said.
“There’s no doubt that some of that attention is going to turn to us to say,
‘Hey, we’re looking for responsibly produced LNG supply from a democratic
country.’ ”
But what will a short-term pause mean for the Canadian sector?
The proposed site of the Ksi Lisims LNG project at Wil Milit (also known as
Whiskey Bay) at the northern tip of Pearse Island in the Portland Canal, north
of Prince Rupert, B.C. The Wil Milit site is located on approximately 1.14
square kilometres of level land. Wil Milit is owned by the Nisga’a Nation in fee
simple. Nisga'a Lisims Government
LNG expert Geoffrey Cann, a principal at MadCann Alberta, views the U.S.
decision as a political one, given that Europe and Asia need gas and security of
supply issues persist.
The American move doesn’t change the underlying economics of Canadian projects,
as developments on the B.C. coast already have access to cheap natural gas
supplies, he noted.
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Ian Archer, an associate director with S&P Global Commodity Insights in Calgary,
said the U.S. decision could include some downside for Canada, as some domestic
gas producers are delivering gas to existing U.S. Gulf Coast export facilities.
However, the pause south of the border may provide some opportunities, depending
on its length.
“There could be some renewed impetus in Canadian LNG facilities . . . It really
just depends on what happens in a year,” he said.
“But building LNG in Canada is not without its own challenges.”
Ebel doesn’t believe the pause will have a material affect on the company’s
plans on either side of the border. And he’s not convinced it sends a long-term
signal.
Supplied photo of Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel. Photo by Handout
However, for Canada, it could present an opportunity to back LNG projects and
support the country’s allies by responding to their energy needs.
Ottawa can help back Indigenous ownership in resource developments through a
federal loan guarantee program, he said. And the government can ensure timely
regulatory decisions are made on major infrastructure.
“The second chance is to play a bigger role in energy transition beyond our
borders,” he said.
“We have the skill set, we have the resources. Do we have the will to play a
bigger role in other parts of the world?”
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.
cvarcoe@postmedia.com
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