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* Home * Premium * Contributors * Channels * All * Bailout * Commodities * COVID-19 * Crypto * Economics * Energy * Geopolitical * Markets * Medical * Military * Personal-Finance * Political * Technology * Weather * The Market Ear * Merch * About * More * RSS * Donate * Advertise LOGIN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STOCK MARKET ROLLER COASTER: PREPARE FOR A DECADE OR TWO OF DISAPPOINTING RETURNS! BY VITALIY KATSENELSON Investors who own index funds have likely strapped themselves into a giant stock market roller coaster -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #BODYPOSITIVITY PROPAGANDA ROUNDUP: ‘MUH WHITE SUPREMACY’ EDITION BY TDB As we've covered, fitness is "right-wing" now, according to woke dogma -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T FALL FOR THIS! BY PHOENIX CAPITAL RESEARCH About that 3Q22 GDP number... 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Join us now -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STOCKS & BONDS PUKE AFTER FED'S MESTER DROPS 'HAWK BOMB' THU FEB 16, AT 2:10 PM THU FEB 16, AT 2:10 PM 25,189120 "...setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase,.." THU FEB 16, AT 2:10 PM THU FEB 16, AT 2:10 PM 25,189120 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BILLIONAIRE JOHN PAULSON: YOU NEED GOLD, NOT DOLLARS THU FEB 16, AT 12:45 PM THU FEB 16, AT 12:45 PM 28,022136 "...Other countries do not want to rely on the dollar as much as they have in the past..." THU FEB 16, AT 12:45 PM THU FEB 16, AT 12:45 PM 28,022136 SPONSORED CONTENT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREAKING - FORMER CIA ADVISOR: BIDEN BOMBED NORD STREAM? SPONSORED CONTENT BY PARADIM PRESS On the morning of September 26, 2022… Four undersea explosions ripped 60-foot holes in Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline… SPONSORED CONTENT BY PARADIM PRESS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY DOWNTURN IS NOT YET FINISHED THU FEB 16, AT 2:35 PM 2/16 AT 14:35 4,2672 ...by some measures global tightening has barely begun. THU FEB 16, AT 2:35 PM 2/16 AT 14:35 4,2672 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PHILLY FED UNEXPECTEDLY TUMBLES TO A RECESSIONARY 21-MONTH LOW THU FEB 16, AT 2:23 PM 2/16 AT 14:23 8,18730 One day after the Empire Fed surges... THU FEB 16, AT 2:23 PM 2/16 AT 14:23 8,18730 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL NUMBER OF AMERICANS CLAIMING JOBLESS BENEFITS HOVERS NEAR ONE-YEAR HIGHS THU FEB 16, AT 1:59 PM 2/16 AT 13:59 7,72948 ...over 1.9 million Americans are claiming some form of unemployment benefit... THU FEB 16, AT 1:59 PM 2/16 AT 13:59 7,72948 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS WEAKEST SINCE COVID LOCKDOWNS THU FEB 16, AT 1:52 PM 2/16 AT 13:52 6,64441 ...so much for soaring homebuilder sentiment? THU FEB 16, AT 1:52 PM 2/16 AT 13:52 6,64441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCER PRICES SURGE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN JANUARY AS GAS PRICES REBOUND THU FEB 16, AT 1:40 PM 2/16 AT 13:40 13,87481 ...biggest MoM jump in the headline since June 2022 THU FEB 16, AT 1:40 PM 2/16 AT 13:40 13,87481 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TESLA SOLD OUT OF MODEL Y AFTER "UNPRECEDENTED DEMAND" IN US, ELECTREK SAYS THU FEB 16, AT 1:25 PM 2/16 AT 13:25 14,660195 Now sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that Tesla has completely run out of production build slots... THU FEB 16, AT 1:25 PM 2/16 AT 13:25 14,660195 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FUTURES DROP AHEAD OF DATA BARRAGE, MORE FED SPEAKERS THU FEB 16, AT 1:10 PM 2/16 AT 13:10 8,17335 “A softer landing appears more likely given the strong consumer and the expectation that wages will keep heading up as labor markets remain tight” THU FEB 16, AT 1:10 PM 2/16 AT 13:10 8,17335 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AIRPORT WEBSITES IN GERMANY PARALYZED BY LIKELY "DDOS ATTACK" THU FEB 16, AT 12:20 PM 2/16 AT 12:20 15,999139 "A Russian hacktivist group claimed responsibility for the attack online." THU FEB 16, AT 12:20 PM 2/16 AT 12:20 15,999139 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DAMAR HAMLIN IS ASKED ABOUT WHY HIS HEART STOPPED: 'SOMETHING I WANT TO STAY AWAY FROM' THU FEB 16, AT 11:55 AM 2/16 AT 11:55 153,782923 "I’ve always been a healthy, young, fit, energetic human being, let alone athlete..." THU FEB 16, AT 11:55 AM 2/16 AT 11:55 153,782923 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHOCKING FOOTAGE SHOWS MOMENT BLACK HAWK HELICOPTER CRASHES NEAR ALABAMA HIGHWAY THU FEB 16, AT 11:55 AM 2/16 AT 11:55 39,864216 "We ask Tennesseans to join us in supporting their families during this time of unthinkable grief." THU FEB 16, AT 11:55 AM 2/16 AT 11:55 39,864216 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONCERNING DIVERGENCES IN EUROPE THU FEB 16, AT 11:44 AM 2/16 AT 11:44 TME 1 "Euro is going back below parity..." THU FEB 16, AT 11:44 AM 2/16 AT 11:44 TME 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MARGINALLY FIRMER SENTIMENT WITH ACTION RANGEBOUND AMID LIMITED CATALYSTS THUS FAR - NEWSQUAWK US MARKET OPEN THU FEB 16, AT 11:39 AM 2/16 AT 11:39 NS 9212 European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of APAC trade with fresh developments somewhat limited ex-earnings. THU FEB 16, AT 11:39 AM 2/16 AT 11:39 NS 9212 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARCLAYS VOWS TO STOP FINANCING OIL SANDS PROJECTS THU FEB 16, AT 11:30 AM 2/16 AT 11:30 10,739112 U.S. banks are the biggest funders of fossil fuel projects in the world and “are still refusing to make real commitments on climate,” the environmental groups added. THU FEB 16, AT 11:30 AM 2/16 AT 11:30 10,739112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUCKING FEAR OUT OF THE MARKET THU FEB 16, AT 11:12 AM 2/16 AT 11:12 TME 4,9522 VOLQ printing lowest levels since April last year... THU FEB 16, AT 11:12 AM 2/16 AT 11:12 TME 4,9522 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KOLANOVIC WARNS 0DTE CAN LEAD TO VOLMAGEDDON 2.0, $30 BILLION IN INTRADAY SELLING THU FEB 16, AT 11:12 AM 2/16 AT 11:12 50,442113 "If there is a large market move, covering of short-term option delta could result in intraday selling on a large down move on the order of ~$30bn... These flows would trigger further one-way flows from option hedging as well as volatility control strategies and CTAs." THU FEB 16, AT 11:12 AM 2/16 AT 11:12 50,442113 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLOBAL WAR ON THE HORIZON? THU FEB 16, AT 10:45 AM 2/16 AT 10:45 28,01799 ...large majorities of the expert respondents said that they think the current global situation could lead to a number of worrying consequences... THU FEB 16, AT 10:45 AM 2/16 AT 10:45 28,01799 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NATURAL GAS FUTURES CONTRACTS SUGGEST EUROPE'S ENERGY CRISIS ISN'T OVER THU FEB 16, AT 10:00 AM 2/16 AT 10:00 15,99731 Europe’s natural gas futures point to structurally higher prices for the rest of the year, as Europe will soon have to start filling inventories for the 2023/2024 winter. THU FEB 16, AT 10:00 AM 2/16 AT 10:00 15,99731 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOUTH AFRICA TO HOST 'STRANGE' NAVAL DRILLS WITH WARSHIPS FROM CHINA, RUSSIA THU FEB 16, AT 9:15 AM 2/16 AT 9:15 32,214141 "We are very much looking forward to seeing the Russian and Chinese navies in action; I am sure our navy will learn a lot..." THU FEB 16, AT 9:15 AM 2/16 AT 9:15 32,214141 Next Today's Top Stories+ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUCKING FEAR OUT OF THE MARKET Some NASDAQ "fear" at lowest since "forever" All equity vols are down post the inflation print, NASDAQ's VXN as well, but there is a measure of NASDAQ vol that is printing lowest levels since April last year, the VOLQ. The index is practically focusing on ATM volatility which takes out "noise" such as skew etc. SOURCE: REFINITIV Rates volatility - still chilled about the rise in rates Bond vol, MOVE, is the most important vol index to watch at the moment. MOVE has stayed relatively calm, despite the recent uptick in rates. Let's see what happens to vol should we "attack" the magical 4% in the 10 year again... SOURCE: REFINITIV CPI obsession in a pic Great chart via Goldman's derivatives guru Garret showing the rolling 1 day straddle cost. CPI is what matters for options...and basically nothing else. SOURCE: GS Lot of inflation "stuff" accelerating It has been decades since so many CPI components accelerated... SOURCE: TS LOMBARD People stopped monetizing hedges? The trend of paying up for downside protection (on a relative vol basis) has continued. Last year was all about running delta 1 shorts and demand for skew was low. This year is basically the inversion of that trend. Noteworthy is that skew has stayed well bid even when markets have come down some from highs. SOURCE: REFINITIV In 0DTE we trust Nomura's McElligott on the "beast": "...over the past month, nearly 1 out of every 2 Options traded on SPX, SPY and QQQ are 0 days til expiration." For now things are behaving rather OK, but the increase of these options will become a problem for markets, as hedging the underlying will cause major issues for the market micro structure. SOURCE: NOMURA Would you buy 1 month puts... ...if you were running the average CTA equity book? Nothing new really, but CTA convexity is huge to the downside. SOURCE: GS EPS declines can be slow to play out Forward EPS declines around previous recessions have been slow to play out. SOURCE: MORGAN STANLEY US trades expensive on most valuation metrics MSCI US12m Fwd PE and real yield. SOURCE: DATASTREAM See TME's daily newsletter email above. For the 24/7 market intelligence feed and thematic trading emails, sign up for ZH premium here. 4h ago at 11:12 Upgrade to Premium Contact Information+ Assistance and Requests: Click here Tips: tips@zerohedge.com General: info@zerohedge.com Legal: legal@zerohedge.com Advertising: Click here Abuse/Complaints: abuse@zerohedge.com Suggested Reading+ Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure.Here's our Cookie Policy. 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