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Skip to main content * Careers * Diversity Equity and Inclusion * Facebook * Instagram * LinkedIn * Twitter * YouTube Toggle navigation Menu * * Our Research * Economists * Center for Inflation Research * Indicators and Data * Publications * Research Topics * Research Analysts * Events * Region * Regional Analysis * State * Topic * Beige Book * Industrial Heartland * Community Development * About Us * Publications by Date * Publications by Topic * Tools and Resources * Events * Policy Summit * Community Advisory Council * Banking * Overview * Consumer Resources * Banker Resources * Data Resources * Newsroom and Events * COVID 19 * Events * Interviews * Press Releases * Reflections * Publications * Speeches * Cleveland Fed Digest * Multimedia Storytelling * Infographics Library * Subscribe * About Us * At a Glance * The Federal Reserve * The Cleveland Fed * Our Directors * Our Officers * Advisory Councils * Diversity and Inclusion * Treasury Services * Careers * Speakers Bureau * Learning Center and Money Museum * About * Visit Us * Schedule a Tour * Programs and Resources * Outreach and Partnerships * Contact Us * WHY DO WE STUDY ECONOMIC INCLUSION? Chris Webb, a Cleveland poet, performer, and filmmaker, and Perris Mackey, a Northeast Ohio collage artist, partnered with the Cleveland Fed to illustrate why the Bank studies economic inclusion and how it’s necessary for a thriving economy. Watch the video. * OUR LATEST ROUND-UP Economic inclusion through the eyes of a poet and an artist; the pandemic-era housing market; and inflation. Subscribe now. * OCTOBER 2021 MEDIAN CPI RELEASE The median consumer price index rose 0.6% (7.1% annualized rate) in October 2021. The 16% trimmed-mean consumer price index rose 0.7% (8.9% annualized rate) during the month. Current Median CPI * MANUFACTURING WAGE PREMIUMS HAVE DIVERGED BETWEEN PRODUCTION AND NONPRODUCTION WORKERS Some manufacturing workers earn substantially more than their non-manufacturing peers. Others do not. Read why * INFLATION ANSWERS, IN 90 SECONDS OR LESS! What is inflation, why does it matter to you, and why does the Fed care about it? It’s not TikTok, but these videos keep it short. 1. 1 2. 2 3. 3 4. 4 5. 5 * Previous * Next HEADLINESSEE ALL * 11.22.21 PPP LOANS & STATE-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Murat Tasci Bezankeng Njinju Hana Braitsch In this Economic Commentary, we focus on the first round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans granted beginning in March 2020 until early August 2020, when turbulence in the labor market was pronounced, in order to demonstrate the PPP’s effects on local labor markets. We find that PPP loans helped mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic recession on state-level employment growth. States that received most of their funding early in the loan period had smaller employment declines than did states that received comparable funds later in the period. Read More * 11.10.21 SMALLEST FIRMS REVEAL BARRIERS TO ECONOMIC INCLUSION: LESSONS FROM PANDEMIC SUPPORT PROGRAMS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Emily Garr Pacetti Maria Thompson Data from the Small Business Credit Survey and insights from community-based organizations prove to be invaluable tools for helping small businesses access the credit they need. Read More * 11.09.21 MANUFACTURING WAGE PREMIUMS HAVE DIVERGED BETWEEN PRODUCTION AND NONPRODUCTION WORKERS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joel Elvery Julianne Dunn Manufacturing jobs have long been associated with good wages. While some manufacturing workers still enjoy relatively high wages, the premium for workers on the factory floor has shrunk dramatically. Why? And what does it mean for workforce policy? Read More PROGRAMS INDICATORS * Median CPI * Inflation Nowcasting * Policy Rules * Systemic Risk * Predicted GDP Growth * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series MEDIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX LONG DESCRIPTION. No description available. STRUCTURE. Line chart with 4 lines. The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Year-over-year percent change. VIEW AS DATA TABLE. CHART GRAPHIC. Median Consumer Price IndexCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1Year-over-year percent changeChart context menuMedian Consumer Price IndexMedian CPI16% Trimmed-Mean CPICPICore CPI2012201320142015201620172018201920202021-101234567Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver Analytics * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series INFLATION NOWCASTING - 2021:Q4 LONG DESCRIPTION. No description available. STRUCTURE. Line chart with 4 lines. The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Quarterly Annualized Percent Change. VIEW AS DATA TABLE. CHART GRAPHIC. Inflation Nowcasting - 2021:Q4Created with Highcharts 6.1.1PCE AugCPI SepPCE SepCPI OctPCE OctQuarterly Annualized Percent ChangeChart context menuInflation Nowcasting - 2021:Q4CPICore CPIPCECore PCE10-11-2110-25-2111-08-2111-22-2112-06-21345678Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Financial Times,Energy Information Administration, FRB Cleveland, and Haver Analytics * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series FEDERAL FUNDS RATES BASED ON 7 SIMPLE RULES LONG DESCRIPTION. No description available. STRUCTURE. Line chart with 5 lines. The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Percent. VIEW AS DATA TABLE. CHART GRAPHIC. Federal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple RulesCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1PercentChart context menuFederal Funds Rates Based on 7 Simple RulesMaximum75th PercentileMedian25th PercentileMinimum2021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q40.01.53.04.56.07.59.010.512.013.515.016.518.019.521.022.524.025.527.028.530.031.533.0Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, FRB Cleveland * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series SYSTEMIC RISK ANALYSIS LONG DESCRIPTION. No description available. STRUCTURE. Line chart with 3 lines. The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Standard Deviation. VIEW AS DATA TABLE. CHART GRAPHIC. Systemic Risk AnalysisCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1Standard DeviationChart context menuSystemic Risk AnalysisSRI (PDD-ADD)Portfolio Distance-to-Default (PDD)Average Distance-to-Default (ADD)09-13-2109-27-2110-11-2110-25-2111-08-2111-22-2100.51Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland * Use regions/landmarks to skip ahead to chart and navigate between data series YIELD-CURVE-PREDICTED GDP GROWTH LONG DESCRIPTION. No description available. STRUCTURE. Line chart with 4 lines. The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Percent. VIEW AS DATA TABLE. CHART GRAPHIC. Yield-Curve-Predicted GDP GrowthCreated with Highcharts 6.1.1PercentChart context menuYield-Curve-Predicted GDP GrowthGDP growth (year-over-year)Incomplete quarterly average, 10/01/2021 to 11/19/202110-year minus 3-month yield spreadPredicted GDP growth20102020200020052015-10-8-6-4-202468101214Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver Analytics OUR PRESIDENT LORETTA J. MESTER * Biography * Bank Publications * Interviews * Reflections * Speeches UPCOMING EVENTSSEE ALL * 09.29.22 INFLATION: DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS CONFERENCE 2022 The Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2022 conference, co-sponsored by the Center for Inflation Research and the European Central Bank will take place on September 29-30, 2022 in Cleveland, OH. CANDIDATE RECOMMENDATIONS To recommend a candidate to serve on one of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s boards of directors, advisory councils, or other forms of engagement with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, complete and submit this form * © 2021 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland * Careers * Diversity and Inclusion * Cleveland Fed Digest * Contact Us * COVID 19 * Fraud Awareness * Privacy