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HOW ISRAEL’S SHEKEL BECAME THE STRONGEST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD

The shekel is at a 25-year high against the dollar, which is good news for
Israeli consumers. But it threatens Israel with a 21st-century form of the
‘Dutch disease’

David Rosenberg
Nov. 11, 2021 4:20 PM
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One hundred dollars bills and two hundred shekels banknotes.Credit:
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David Rosenberg
Nov. 11, 2021 4:20 PM
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Nov. 11, 2021 4:20 PM


There was a time when a strong shekel would have sent shockwaves through the
Israeli economy. Exports were the lifeblood of the economy and if the Israeli
currency gained too much against the dollar, Israeli products became less
price-competitive overseas and corporate profits evaporated. Layoffs would
follow, reverberating across the non-export parts of the economy.



Exports are still our lifeblood, but the days when a strong shekel was regarded
as a dire threat are gone. The currency has risen no less than 4 percent over
the past month and 20 percent over the last year, and today trades a 25-year
high against the dollar. No one seems to be particularly bothered.


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Well, almost no one. As expected, the Manufacturers Association, which
represents Israel’s industrial establishment, issued a dire warning just like it
was 1999 about the jobless rate rising again. But in today’s economy they don’t
count for much. In the last year the Bank of Israel has been intervening in the
currency markets less and less to keep the shekel from strengthening even more
than it has, and plans to do even less come 2022.   



Why indeed should it act otherwise? The shekel has been going from strength to
strength for quite some time now, and the economy has paid no evident price for
it. Quite to the contrary. The Bank of Israel expects gross domestic product to
grow 7 percent this year and 5.5 percent next year as the economy bounces back
from its COVID recession. Exports have been rising, especially exports of
services. The government’s finances have recovered remarkably quickly as the
booming economy boosts tax revenues and COVID spending drops. 


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The strong shekel is a function of the new Israel that has been born over the
last quarter of a century. We’re no longer an economy struggling to find its
place in the global market. Israel today is about high-tech and energy. It is
richer than most Israelis realize and, following the stretch of fiscal chaos in
the final Netanyahu years, Israel finally has a budget for 2021 and 2022.
Despite what you read in the local media, from the point of view of investors
and money managers, Israel is a well-run country.



A lot of this isn’t exactly news, but perhaps the money impact of this
technology and energy revolution isn’t widely understood.


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The money magnet and sickness



Let’s start with high-tech. All those startups not only provide extraordinary
salaries and even more extraordinary payouts for their entrepreneurs and
investors: they are a giant money magnet. In the first half of this year,
foreign investors poured in more than $37 billion into Israel, meaning they
bought shekels. That was close to the total for all of 2020 and considerably
more than the total for 2019. Nearly all of that went into the high-tech sector.


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Energy is the second factor. Israel is still importing oil and even coal but
far, far less than we used to because so much of our electric power is now
generated by domestically produced gas. Israel is even exporting natural gas,
which brings us to another part of the economic revolution: We’re no longer
running trade deficits.




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Israel still imports more goods than it exports, which was the chronic problem
of the old Israel that could never really make a go of it as an industrial
power. But these days, we export far more services than we import, again thanks
to high-tech.



Thus, even with tourism in the doldrums (tourists spending their money on hotels
and restaurants in Israel are classified as as “buying exported services”),
Israel still ran run up a surplus in its services account this year.


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All of the above means that supply and demand favor the shekel: Dollars are
flooding into the country and being repatriated into shekels.



If that wasn’t enough, high-tech has made Israel rich, or more precisely has
created a lot of rich people (unfortunately, there are still a lot of poor
Israelis, too). Their savings have increasingly gone into foreign investments,
so that today more than a third of Israeli financial assets are in foreign
currency. Ordinarily, that would create demand for dollars, except that with
Wall Street posting constant new record highs, the institutions managing these
assets have to sell some of their holdings so that their dollar exposure doesn’t
grow too large. That means more dollars being repatriated into shekels.



All of this speaks of economic success, but that raises two questions. Does the
strong shekel benefit ordinary Israelis? And, do the seeds of disaster lie
beneath all these glowing numbers?



The answer to the first question is certainly yes, at least for now. Inflation
has been accelerating in Israel, as it has all over the world, but the strong
shekel will no doubt curb price increases for imported products and offset the
impact of rising world commodities prices. Some prices may even fall. Israelis
daring to travel in the still COVID-infested world will find the cost of hotels
and restaurants low when they calculate them in shekels.



In the old Israeli economy, the joy of lower prices was always offset by the
pain of possibly losing your job if your employer couldn’t compete in overseas
markets and had to cut costs. Those days are gone, but what the strong shekel is
doing is making Israel even more dependent on its high-tech sector as our only
industry that can compete globally.



On paper, that’s great. High-tech is the future, so what’s the problem? The
problem is that not enough of the Israeli workforce has the skills and training
to work in high-tech – many of them even struggle to do their jobs in low-tech.
Israel can’t become an even more tech-oriented economy if it doesn’t have a
growing supply of warm bodies and hot brains. It’s struggling to do that.



The term “Dutch disease” comes to mind. That’s an economy with a strong currency
due to one thriving export sector, historically a natural resource, that
decimates other export industries. In the prototype case of The Netherlands in
the 1970s, the sector was natural gas. Could our 21st-century version of the
disease be high-tech?


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legitimate interest, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in
the link under each purpose. These choices will be signaled to our vendors
participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
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STRICTLY NECESSARY COOKIES

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These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched
off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you
which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy
preferences, logging in or filling in forms.    You can set your browser to
block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then
work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.

PERFORMANCE COOKIES

Performance Cookies

These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and
improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the
most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site.    All
information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you
do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and
will not be able to monitor its performance.

FUNCTIONAL COOKIES

Functional Cookies

These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and
personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose
services we have added to our pages.    If you do not allow these cookies then
some or all of these services may not function properly.

TARGETING COOKIES

Targeting Cookies

These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may
be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you
relevant adverts on other sites.    They do not store directly personal
information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet
device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted
advertising.

STORE AND/OR ACCESS INFORMATION ON A DEVICE

Store and/or access information on a device

Cookies, device identifiers, or other information can be stored or accessed on
your device for the purposes presented to you.

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PERSONALISED ADS AND CONTENT, AD AND CONTENT MEASUREMENT, AUDIENCE INSIGHTS AND
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and
product development

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   Ads can be shown to you based on the content you’re viewing, the app you’re
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   A profile can be built about you and your interests to show you personalised
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 * SELECT PERSONALISED ADS
   
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   Personalised ads can be shown to you based on a profile about you.
   
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 * CREATE A PERSONALISED CONTENT PROFILE
   
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   A profile can be built about you and your interests to show you personalised
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 * SELECT PERSONALISED CONTENT
   
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   Personalised content can be shown to you based on a profile about you.
   
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 * MEASURE AD PERFORMANCE
   
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   The performance and effectiveness of ads that you see or interact with can be
   measured.
   
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 * MEASURE CONTENT PERFORMANCE
   
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   The performance and effectiveness of content that you see or interact with
   can be measured.
   
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 * APPLY MARKET RESEARCH TO GENERATE AUDIENCE INSIGHTS
   
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   Market research can be used to learn more about the audiences who visit
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   Your data can be used to improve existing systems and software, and to
   develop new products
   
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USE PRECISE GEOLOCATION DATA

Use precise geolocation data

Your precise geolocation data can be used in support of one or more purposes.
This means your location can be accurate to within several meters.

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ACTIVELY SCAN DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION

Actively scan device characteristics for identification

Your device can be identified based on a scan of your device's unique
combination of characteristics.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT FRAUD, AND DEBUG

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent fraudulent activity, and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely.

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TECHNICALLY DELIVER ADS OR CONTENT

Always Active

Your device can receive and send information that allows you to see and interact
with ads and content.

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MATCH AND COMBINE OFFLINE DATA SOURCES

Always Active

Data from offline data sources can be combined with your online activity in
support of one or more purposes

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES

Always Active

Different devices can be determined as belonging to you or your household in
support of one or more of purposes.

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RECEIVE AND USE AUTOMATICALLY-SENT DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends, such as IP address or browser type.

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WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PRIVACY

We and our partners store and/or access information on a device, such as unique
IDs in cookies to process personal data. You may accept or manage your choices
by clicking below, including your right to object where legitimate interest is
used, or at any time in the privacy policy page. These choices will be signaled
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WE AND OUR PARTNERS PROCESS DATA TO PROVIDE:

Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for
identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised ads
and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product
development. List of Partners (vendors)

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