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BUT WHEN IT COMES TO VALUING BITCOIN AND OTHER CRYPTOCURRENCIES

 * Posted by sometek4u on June 27, 2022 at 8:50am
 * View Blog

Bear markets have grown almost routine for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency
prices. Since its 2009 launch, Bitcoin's price has tumbled more than 50% six
times.

Why This Bitcoin Crash Is A 'Crypto Ice Age' — Don't Fight

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong, in a June 14 letter announcing an 18% staff
cut, offered assurance despite the latest Bitcoin crash and walloping of other
crypto prices. Armstrong said the cryptocurrency exchange "has survived through
four major crypto winters" and is taking the steps needed to do so again.

Yet this storm is on an entirely different level. "It's a crypto ice age,"
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev told IBD. "I think this is going to be very deep, very
prolonged, and many cryptocurrencies will not survive."



The blowup of supposed "stablecoin" TerraUSD, wiping out $40 billion in market
value, has accelerated a deleveraging wave that has yet to run its course. This
month, crypto lending platform Celsius Network, which oversaw $20 billion in
crypto deposits and loans, halted withdrawals as it faced a liquidity crunch.

Both Terra, a blockchain payment and savings network, and Celsius offered
double-digit interest payments that depended on bullish crypto scenarios. But
the collapse of those Wild West business models is less a cause than a symptom
of crypto's unraveling. The real reason the cryptocurrency market is imploding:
Bitcoin and the other roughly 19,000 digital currencies are up against their
first Federal Reserve tightening cycle to stem an inflation outbreak.

Easy Money Fueled Cryptocurrency Prices
For most of their existence, cryptocurrencies have enjoyed the balmiest of
monetary conditions. The period since Bitcoin's launch has mostly seen the Fed
trying to prop up demand. Over that time, the Fed bought up $6.5 trillion worth
of Treasuries and government-backed mortgage securities. That suppressed rates
in a bid to encourage risk-taking, boost asset values and stimulate demand
through wealth gains.

The bulk of those Fed purchases — $4.5 trillion — came after the coronavirus
lockdown cratered the economy in March 2020. Alongside multiple rounds of fiscal
stimulus, ultra-easy Fed policy worked only too well. All that monetary fuel
supercharged the vaccine-enabled economic reopening and touched off the biggest
bout of inflation in 40 years.



Now the reversal of unprecedented Fed stimulus is deflating most asset values.
The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield has hit growth stocks in particular.
Their future earnings streams are less valuable when discounted to the present
based on a higher risk-free rate of return. That helps explain why the
tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the broad market.



But when it comes to valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, there are no
future cash flows to discount.

Bitcoin Crash Shows It's No Digital Gold
The Bitcoin crash has "debunked" the idea that it offers a hedge vs. inflation,
like digital gold, Deutsche Bank economists Marion Laboure and Galina
Pozdnyakova wrote in May. Rather than trading like gold, the ups and downs of
cryptocurrency prices have correlated with the Nasdaq to a "staggering" degree,
they wrote.

Yet cryptocurrency's roller-coaster ride makes the Nasdaq's volatility seem
tame. Through June 23, the Nasdaq is down nearly 31% from its Nov. 22 intraday
high. Bitcoin, which peaked on Nov. 10, has dived 70%.

Fed Rate Hike And Other Tightening Moves
Just days before Bitcoin began its retreat, the Fed said it would scale back
$120 billion in monthly asset purchases. The timing doesn't appear to be a
coincidence. In fact, the history of Bitcoin's peaks and valleys mostly
coincides with shifts in Fed asset purchases.

The first Bitcoin crash began in June 2011, just as the Fed ended its second
round of financial-crisis-era asset buys. The second coincided with the spring
2013 taper tantrum over a possible wind-down of yet-another round of asset
purchases. The start of actual tapering at the end of 2013 coincided with the
third Bitcoin crash.

The late 2017 crash coincided with Federal Reserve rate hikes that came as the
Fed began to gently unwind asset purchases. Yet none of those instances saw
anything like today's tightening.

In late 2018, when monetary tightening helped trigger a financial market rout,
the Fed's key interest rate only reached 2.5%-2.75%. That was the highest in
Bitcoin's history. Yet once the S&P 500's drop approached the 20% bear market
threshold, Fed policymakers signaled a change in course. By autumn 2019, the Fed
was cutting rates and buying more assets.

But last week, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had already crossed into bear
market territory, policymakers decided to accelerate their tightening plans.



The Fed doesn't target any specific asset class. However, the $2 trillion
wipeout for cryptocurrency markets is all according to plan.



"We've seen financial conditions tighten and appropriately so," Fed chief Jerome
Powell said June 15.

Bitcoin Price Has Crossed This Line
In recent days, this Bitcoin price crash crossed a line that previous bear
markets in cryptocurrency prices didn't even approach.

Bitcoin tumbled as much as 75% from November's record $68,990.90 to the June 18
low near $17,800. That briefly undercut its last major peak near $19,600 in
December 2017. At its worst, in early 2015, Bitcoin's low was nearly 40% higher
than the previous peak.

Bitcoin has since bounced to slightly above $21,000. That's right around the
average $21,000 purchase price, Mizuho's Dolev says.

Wiping out Bitcoin's gains over the past 4.5 years is challenging the notion
that long-term holders can't lose. That will test the faith that ultimately
determines the value of all cryptocurrencies.

That faith probably has limits, yet it clearly runs deep. Nearly 50% of Bitcoin
traders on Coinbase say they won't sell, no matter how low cryptocurrency prices
go, Dolev wrote on May 19. "For the remaining ~50%, the tipping point is about
$9,000," a Mizuho survey found.

Despite the cryptocurrency price carnage, Silicon Valley VC firm Andreessen
Horowitz announced a $4.5 billion crypto fund on May 25. Venture firms plowed
$4.2 billion into early-stage crypto firms last month, a sizable sum, though
down from $6.8 billion in April. In 2021, VC funding of blockchain firms totaled
$33 billion.

Cryptocurrency's Killer App?
What have all those billions bought? The main excitement, if not the primary
purpose, of cryptocurrencies seems to be digital alchemy — creating money out of
code.

No doubt, creating nearly $3 trillion out of code — then erasing $2 trillion —
was an incredible feat.

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, may be the closest thing to a killer app. NFT
ownership is tracked on the same blockchain ledgers that record ownership of
cryptocurrencies. The tokens can provide ownership to digital art, sports cards,
music videos and the like.

But these digital collectibles may have even flimsier support than the
cryptocurrencies.

The digital rights to the first-ever tweet famously sold for $2.9 million in
March 2021. When put up for auction a year later, the top bid came in around
$12,600.

The most expensive NFT sale over the past month was a digital print from the
Bored Ape Yacht Club collection. Owning one of the 10,000 images has become a
pseudo status symbol. Club members include Jimmy Fallon and Justin Bieber.

Yet Bored Apes' valuations have plunged. The floor price — the lowest current
auction price for part of the collection — has crashed 77% since the May 1 peak
of $420,000, to about $97,250.

Bear Market News And How To Handle A Market Correction



Crypto Payment Functionality Revisited After Bitcoin Crash
What separates Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies from being mere
collectibles is their utility for conducting transactions.

Progress on that front has been slow. In 2014, Stripe was the first major
payments firm to support Bitcoin transactions. By 2018, it had cut off that
support, citing slow transaction times, high fees and little customer interest.



Four years later, Stripe has rekindled its Bitcoin ties, while some crypto
players are winning plaudits for transaction efficiency.



In April, Morgan Stanley touted Bitcoin's Lightning Network as more practical
for retailers than debit cards for small purchases. The secondary network allows
for fast, low-cost transactions between off-network parties.

These transactions don't require Bitcoin's slow, costly, energy-intensive
proof-of-work calculations to update the blockchain ledger. The Lightning
Network works more like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), allowing for funds
settlement after the transaction is complete.

Ethereum is gearing up to shift its entire network to the same kind of
lightning-fast transactions, while cutting energy use by 99%.

In April, Lightning Labs, the team behind Bitcoin's Lightning Network, announced
$70 million in funding. Its new big project is to enable the network to handle
transactions via stablecoins backed by fiat currencies such as the dollar.

Yet if paying with $1 stablecoins makes more sense than using Bitcoin, why
should Bitcoin be valued at $20,000 or more?

"I'm a big believer in blockchain technology and smart contracts and
decentralized finance," Dolev said, citing the potential to reduce the cost of
transmitting money globally. "But I make a big distinction between all these
things and the hype around the coins."

Stablecoin Cryptocurrency Price Test
Stablecoins have been the biggest winners and losers of the latest crypto crash.
Tether and USD Coin, now the third- and fourth-largest cryptocurrencies by
market cap, have held essentially 100% of their value.

The coins' value is backed by an equal amount of extremely safe assets like cash
and U.S. government debt. Tether also holds short-term high-rated commercial
debt. Amid crisis, they have had liquid cash at the ready to cover withdrawals.

When the TerraUSD stablecoin faced an old-fashioned bank run in May, the
collateral for some $18 billion in coins was composed of other coins. That
included more than $20 billion worth of Luna coins issued by the same company.
Yet when push came to shove, Luna turned out to be worth next to nothing.
TerraUSD broke its dollar peg on May 7, crashed to 15 cents within a week and is
now worth a fraction of a penny.

Cryptocurrency Regulation
In some respects, stablecoins are like a crypto version of money market funds, a
safe place to park cash for a modest return. But the returns weren't modest and
investors' cash wasn't safe in the case of TerraUSD.
While the going was good, TerraUSD holders enjoyed a 20% interest rate. That
should have been a red flag.

But even money market funds struggled during the 2008 financial crisis, with the
Primary Reserve Fund famously "breaking the buck." The Securities and Exchange
Commission followed with reforms requiring funds to hold more liquid assets and
stress-test for crisis situations.

Something along those lines could be coming for stablecoins. That would kill off
algorithmic funds such as TerraUSD that are backed by nonstable
cryptocurrencies. Regulators might also impose limits on the interest paid by
stablecoins.

While it's unclear whether Congress will pass legislation regulating crypto, SEC
Chair Gary Gensler has made the case that most coins are securities and already
fall under the agency's authority.

Bitcoin Crash And The 'Wild West' Crypto Market
Gensler compared crypto to the Wild West in a speech last August, calling it
"rife with fraud, scams and abuse." He began taking steps to rein in those
practices well before the latest blowups.

Last September, Coinbase said the SEC threatened to sue the company, forcing it
to shelve its about-to-launch Lend program. Coinbase had planned to offer 4%
interest to customers who deposited stablecoins for lending out to others. The
SEC said the stablecoin deposits amounted to an investment in a security because
Coinbase doesn't fall under banking regulations, with leverage restrictions and
deposit insurance.

In February, BlockFi agreed to pay $100 million in fines after the SEC charged
that its interest accounts for those who deposited crypto qualified as
unregistered securities. Further, the SEC said BlockFi was operating as an
unregistered investment company because it had more than 40% of assets in
investment securities, including loans of crypto to institutional borrowers.

Reportedly, similar investigations were aimed at crypto lender Celsius and its
18% interest rate. But they didn't come soon enough to prevent this month's
train wreck. Celsius raised $750 million in funds from investors last fall, but
it still had to halt withdrawals as the crypto sell-off intensified after the
crash of the TerraUSD stablecoin.

Bitcoin Is About The Worst Thing You Could Invest In

Cryptocurrency Prices Hangover
If you're wondering whether cryptocurrencies are a good bet at recent crypto
prices, keep in mind that the mania has only just begun to break. While Bitcoin
peaked in November, the Luna cryptocurrency that was supposed to keep TerraUSD
pegged to the dollar only peaked in April — before crashing to zero the next
month.

The unwinding of excessive leverage, more regulatory scrutiny and a Federal
Reserve tightening cycle meant to douse speculative fervor suggest a long crypto
winter. A lot of business models that seemed viable and investments that seemed
rational when crypto had never suffered a long losing streak are facing their
first major reality check.

To some Bitcoin believers like MicroStrategy (MSTR) CEO Michael Saylor, who bet
$4 billion of company funds on the cryptocurrency, the shakeout is overdue.

"What you have is a $400 billion cloud of opaque, unregistered securities
trading without full and fair disclosure, and they are all cross-collateralized
with Bitcoin," Saylor said in an interview hosted by the Northman Trader market
analysis site.

The implication is that shady practices across the crypto sphere and the
cascading margin calls they've provoked are responsible for the latest Bitcoin
crash. All those other cryptos also undermine Saylor's notion that Bitcoin is a
scarce resource. Bitcoin's market cap now accounts for about 45% of total crypto
value, down from 90% at the start of 2016.

What Will Follow The Ice Age In Cryptocurrency Prices
Saylor's perspective may shortchange the role of Fed tightening and the extent
to which the need for collateral to fuel crypto speculation helped boost
Bitcoin's price.

Yet inflation will eventually recede, and the Federal Reserve will end its
tightening cycle. But the central bank is unlikely to return to a sustained
super-easy monetary policy anytime soon.

A new crypto spring will eventually arrive. Just don't expect it to be anything
like the prior ones.

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